The Death of Ayatollah Khamenei and Its Geopolitical Implications for the Red Sea and Horn of Africa The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, on February 28, 2026, marked the end of a significant political era in the Middle East. Khamenei was killed during U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, which escalated into a broader regional conflict involving multiple Middle Eastern nations. The Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, regions connecting Africa and the Middle East, are deeply interconnected through military, political, and economic networks. A crisis on one side of the region can quickly impact the other. Countries such as Somalia, Eritrea, Yemen, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Djibouti border one of the world’s most critical commercial and geopolitical corridors. While the death of Khamenei may seem dramatic, its consequences for the region could be less severe than anticipated. Iran’s power is distributed among institutions and security elites capable of maintaining the regime’s continuity. The Red Sea and Horn of Africa have long been part of Iran’s strategic interests, though its influence has waned in recent years. During the 1990s and 2000s, Tehran strengthened security and economic ties with countries like Sudan to establish a presence along the Red Sea. However, the rise of Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which expanded their diplomatic, financial, and military presence, has diminished Iran’s regional role. Three interdependent dynamics shape how Khamenei’s death affects the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. First, Iran’s influence in the region has declined over the past decade. Yemen is an exception, as Iran continues to support the Houthi movement, which has already attacked Israeli-linked vessels.#iran #islamic_revolutionary_guard_corps #ayatollah_khamenei #red_sea #horn_of_africa
