March Madness upset predictions: Ranking most likely first round surprises The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is known for its unpredictability, with upsets playing a central role in shaping the narrative of the event. While the 68-team format provides underdog teams with a chance to challenge powerhouse programs, the first round often features games that defy expectations. Over the next three weeks, Cinderella stories will unfold, and fans will be tasked with predicting which lower-seeded teams can topple their higher-ranked opponents. To aid in this process, here’s a breakdown of the eight most likely upsets in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, based on team dynamics, player injuries, and recent performance. The tournament’s structure allows for dramatic shifts in momentum, particularly when underdogs face teams with internal struggles or key injuries. For instance, the matchup between No. 11 South Florida and No. 6 Louisville highlights a potential clash between two stylistically similar teams. Both squads rely on fast-paced, three-point-heavy offenses, but Louisville’s reliance on freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. could be a vulnerability. Brown’s persistent back issues have left the Cardinals with a shaky interior presence, making them susceptible to the 6-10 forward Izaiyah Nelson of South Florida, who averages 15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds. South Florida’s 11-game win streak and strong recent form make them a formidable contender in this matchup. Another key upset candidate is No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina. The Tar Heels are missing standout forward Caleb Wilson, who is sidelined after surgery on a broken thumb. Despite a 19-4 start, North Carolina has struggled since Wilson’s injury, posting a 5-4 record. VCU, however, has been dominant, winning 16 of its past 17 games.#south_florida #ncaa_men_s_basketball_tournament #louisville #mikel_brown_jr #izaiyah_nelson
