Bangladesh may overtake India in per capita GDP in 2026. Why experts say data is more complex According to April 2026 projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bangladesh’s per capita GDP is expected to edge slightly above India’s in 2026, with estimates placing Bangladesh at $2,911 compared to India’s $2,812. The projection has sparked a debate among economists about the implications of such a crossover, with some emphasizing its symbolic significance and others cautioning against overinterpreting the data. The IMF’s forecast highlights a narrow gap between the two nations’ per capita incomes, but it also underscores the vast disparity in their overall economic scales. India’s total GDP is projected to reach around $4.1 trillion in 2026, while Bangladesh’s is expected to remain at approximately $510 billion. Economists argue that aggregate GDP, growth momentum, and structural diversity are critical indicators that go beyond per capita metrics. For instance, India’s larger population and broader economic base mean its total output far exceeds Bangladesh’s, even if per capita figures temporarily shift. The discussion has intensified after contrasting remarks from two prominent economists. Kaushik Basu, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, expressed concern over the projection, calling it “shocking” given Bangladesh’s recent political and economic instability. He urged India to focus on substantive policy reforms rather than reacting to headlines about per capita income rankings. Basu’s comments were met with rebuttals from Kanwal Sibal, a former Foreign Secretary, who emphasized the need to contextualize per capita data. Sibal argued that per capita income comparisons can be misleading when applied to countries at different stages of development or with varying population sizes.#india #bangladesh #international_monetary_fund #kaushik_basu #kanwal_sibal
IMF projects Bangladesh to overtake India in per capita GDP in 2026 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) database on April 14, 2026, sparking widespread discussion in financial markets and newsrooms. A key projection from the report is that Bangladesh will surpass India in per capita GDP in 2026, measured in current US dollars. According to the forecast, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP is expected to reach $2,911, compared to India’s projected $2,812. While the gap is narrow in absolute terms, the symbolic significance of this shift has drawn significant attention. India’s economy, valued at $3,916 billion in 2025, is roughly eight times larger than Bangladesh’s $458 billion. Despite its massive size, the smaller neighboring country appears poised to edge ahead in this specific metric. The reaction in India was immediate, with former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu calling the development “shocking.” Indian commentators debated whether the projection reflected deeper structural differences between the two economies or merely a statistical anomaly. The answer, as economic data often reveals, is a combination of both factors. When measured in current dollars, Bangladesh led India in per capita income for seven years from 2018. India reclaimed the lead in 2025 after the Bangladeshi taka weakened sharply against the US dollar. This trend is not unprecedented. Between 1989 and 2002, Bangladesh also outperformed India in per capita GDP, only for India to regain the lead for about 15 years before Bangladesh overtook it again in 2018. The subsequent depreciation of the Indian rupee against the dollar then shifted the comparison back in India’s favor. According to the latest projections, Bangladesh is expected to surpass India by approximately $100 per person in 2026.#india #bangladesh #imf #world_economic_outlook #kaushik_basu
