US Waiver On Russian Oil Ends: Will India Raise Fuel Prices Again? The Trump administration's sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne crude oil expired on May 17, ending a temporary reprieve for India's energy strategy. This decision, which had allowed India to continue importing Russian oil without facing U.S. penalties, now forces the country to confront a dual crisis: rising global oil prices and the geopolitical risks of relying on Russian supplies. The waiver's expiration coincided with ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, which has driven global crude prices above $105 per barrel—up from around $72 before the Iran war escalated tensions. India, which imports over 85% of its crude oil, now faces a precarious situation as its reliance on Russian oil, which accounted for nearly half of its total imports in May, becomes more politically and economically risky. For nearly two years, India had leveraged the waiver to secure discounted Russian crude, a strategy that helped shield the country from the worst effects of the global oil shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. During this period, Indian refiners purchased record volumes of Russian oil, with imports reaching 2.3 million barrels per day in May. This supply chain provided a critical buffer against soaring global prices, allowing India to maintain relatively stable fuel costs despite the broader economic turmoil. However, the waiver's expiration has disrupted this balance, leaving India vulnerable to both sanctions risks and the financial strain of higher oil prices. The timing of the waiver's end has been particularly challenging. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint for geopolitical tensions, with tanker movements slowed by the Iran war and insurance costs soaring.#india #strait_of_hormuz #trump_administration #russian_oil #petros_stone_llp
Trump's Exemption on Russian Oil Ends, Fuel Prices in India Rise Again India's petrol and diesel prices surged again on May 15, 2026, nearly four years after the last increase. This follows the expiration of a critical U.S. exemption that had allowed countries like India to bypass sanctions on Russian crude oil. The lifting of this exemption has raised concerns about further price hikes, especially as global oil prices have already risen significantly amid geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. The U.S. government, under the Trump administration, had previously extended the exemption for Russian oil imports by one month before officially ending it. This move meant that India and other nations could continue importing Russian crude without facing U.S. sanctions. However, with the exemption now revoked, Indian refiners face the risk of higher costs and potential supply chain disruptions. India has relied heavily on discounted Russian crude oil over the past two years, with imports reaching approximately 2.3 million barrels per day in May 2026. This reliance helped stabilize India's fuel prices in a volatile global market. However, the end of the exemption has introduced new uncertainties. Analysts warn that if global crude prices continue to rise, India may need to impose another price hike, potentially increasing fuel costs by up to ₹10 per liter. The recent surge in fuel prices coincided with heightened tensions in the Middle East, including U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran and attacks on key oil infrastructure in the UAE. Brent crude prices rose 1.81% to $111.24 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed 2.15% to $107.69 per barrel. These increases have already pressured Indian refiners, who raised fuel prices by ₹3 per liter at the start of May.#india #brent_crude #trump_administration #russian_oil #wti_crude
India Secures 60 Million Barrels Of Russian Oil For April As Hormuz Disruptions Hit Gulf Supplies: Report Indian refiners have agreed to purchase around 60 million barrels of Russian crude oil for delivery in April, reflecting a sharp rise in imports as the nation grapples with supply disruptions caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The contracted volumes represent a doubling of February’s imports and align with March’s purchase levels, underscoring India’s efforts to secure energy supplies amid growing uncertainties. The increased procurement of Russian oil follows a temporary policy shift by the U.S. Treasury Department, which initially permitted Indian refiners to take delivery of Russian crude already loaded on ships before March 5. This deadline was later extended to March 12, allowing Indian buyers to capitalize on the opportunity. The decision came amid disruptions to oil shipments from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as Iran intensified attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade. Indian companies reportedly paid premiums of between five and 15 dollars per barrel for Russian crude, a stark contrast to the heavy discounts typically seen in Asian markets. This surge in prices reflects the urgency of securing supplies amid the crisis. Refiners scrambled to lock in Russian barrels, paying premiums of two to eight dollars above the Brent crude benchmark to ensure uninterrupted supply chains. Beyond Russian oil, India has expanded its energy diversification strategy. Purchases from Venezuela are expected to reach eight million barrels in April, the highest volume since October 2020. The conflict has severely impacted India’s access to oil via the Strait of Hormuz, through which the country usually receives 40 to 50 percent of its imports.#iran #india #strait_of_hormuz #us_treasury #russian_oil
