A Trader Earned Nearly $1 Million by Accurately Predicting Iran-Related Events on Polymarket A trader has reportedly made nearly $1 million since 2024 by placing well-timed bets on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, that correctly anticipated US and Israeli military actions against Iran, according to an analysis shared with CNN. The trader’s success rate on Iran-related bets reached 93%, despite the events they predicted being unannounced military operations. The trader’s pattern of prescient bets included hours before Israeli strikes in October 2024 during its conflict with Iran, hours before US airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, and hours before a joint US-Israeli surprise attack in February 2026, which marked the start of the current war. Bubblemaps, an analytics firm tracking blockchain transactions, highlighted these trades as potential indicators of insider activity. Bubblemaps CEO Nick Vaiman told CNN that the trader’s success rate, combined with the timing of their bets and their connection to the platform’s blockchain network, raises significant concerns. “This is pretty suspicious in my book,” Vaiman said. However, the trader’s accounts remain anonymous and cannot be traced to a specific individual. The bets were placed on Polymarket’s international site, which operates outside US regulatory oversight. Polymarket has not responded to CNN’s requests for comment. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, approved Polymarket to serve American customers last year, though its US-facing platform is not yet fully operational. Americans can access the offshore site via a virtual private network (VPN). The CFTC’s approval came after the Trump administration closed a Biden-era criminal probe into Polymarket’s practices.#shayne_coplan #bubblemaps #nick_vaiman #todd_phillips #cftc
