Illinois vs. Houston NCAA Tournament Prediction: Odds, Spread, and Sweet 16 Picks from SportsLine Model The third-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini will face the second-seeded Houston Cougars in a 2026 NCAA Tournament South Region Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday. The game, set for 10:05 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston, marks the first meeting between the programs since 2022. Illinois, which finished second in a three-way tie for the Big 10 Conference title, enters the game with a 26-8 record after a 76-55-88 last-second victory over VCU in the second round. Houston, the Big 12 runner-up with a 30-6 record, defeated Texas A&M 88-57 in its previous game. Both teams have won four of their last five contests. The Cougars are listed as 2.5-point favorites in the latest odds, with the over/under for total points scored set at 139.5. Houston’s money line is -141, meaning bettors would need to risk $141 to win $100, while Illinois is +118. SportsLine’s Projection Model, which has demonstrated strong accuracy in recent NCAA Tournament predictions, has simulated the matchup 10,000 times. The model’s analysis suggests the game will be competitive, with both teams expected to contribute multiple players scoring 12 points or more. Illinois is projected to have four players reach double figures, including Keaton Wagler, who is expected to score 15.7 points. Houston’s Emanuel Sharp is predicted to lead the Cougars with 16.2 points. The model’s simulations indicate a total of 149 points in 74.3% of scenarios, suggesting the over will likely be the correct choice. Illinois, however, has a strong track record in Thursday games, posting a 10-2 straight-up record in their last 12 such contests.#ncaa_tournament #houston_cougars #toyota_center #illinois_fighting_illini #sportsline_model
