Former US Health Secretary Xavier Becerra Gains Massive Lead in California Governor's Race After Swalwell Exit Californians will vote in less than 50 days to select the next governor, with a significant shift in the race following the withdrawal of Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell. The former congressman, who faced sexual assault accusations, dropped out of the race this week, creating an opening for other candidates. A new poll from Inside California Politics and Emerson College Polling shows a notable realignment in voter support, with Xavier Becerra emerging as a strong contender. The survey, which included 1,000 voters, highlights the fluid nature of the race. Previously, Swalwell held 17% of support, but his exit has led to a significant shift. Becerra, the former US Health Secretary, saw a massive 15-point increase among Democrats. Political analysts suggest that Swalwell’s departure has allowed voters to reconsider their options, particularly among those seeking candidates with clearer policy positions. Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College, noted that the poll underscores the race’s openness, stating, “This should actually be encouraging news to the entire rest of the field that they might get another look.” The poll also reveals a competitive landscape among other candidates. Republican Steve Hilton leads with 17% support, followed by Republican Chad Bianco and Democrat Tom Steyer, who are tied at 14%. Steyer, a billionaire environmentalist, remains a prominent figure on the left, while Bianco, a former state senator, has gained traction as a potential moderate. Meanwhile, Becerra’s rise has positioned him as a key player, now tied with Katie Porter at 10%, while Matt Mahan climbed to 5%. Political communications professor Dan Schnur of U.C.#eric_swalwell #chad_bianco #tom_steyer #xavier_becerra #melissa_michelson
Xavier Becerra surges in poll after Eric Swalwell drops out of California governor's race A significant shift has occurred in the California governor's race following the withdrawal of former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who had been a leading contender, due to multiple allegations of sexual misconduct. A new poll conducted by Emerson College’s Inside California Politics reveals a notable change in voter support, with Xavier Becerra emerging as the biggest beneficiary of Swalwell’s exit. The poll, released shortly after Swalwell’s withdrawal and amid President Trump’s endorsement of Republican Steve Hilton, shows Becerra’s support rising to 10%, a seven-point increase since March. This surge positions him as a key player in the race, despite remaining behind the leading Republican candidate, Hilton, who holds 17% of the vote. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco follows with 14%, while billionaire Tom Steyer, another Democratic candidate, trails at 14%. Former Rep. Katie Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan each secure 10% and 5%, respectively. The poll also highlights a substantial portion of undecided voters, with 23% of respondents yet to commit to a candidate. Politics professor Sara Sadhwani of Pomona College emphasized the volatility of the race, stating that Swalwell’s exit has created a “huge vacuum” and intensified uncertainty. Zev Yaroslavsky, director of UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs, noted that Becerra’s rise is the most significant development in the survey, calling him “the biggest move” in the race. Yaroslavsky further speculated that Trump’s endorsement of Hilton could bolster the Republican’s position over time, potentially pushing Bianco’s support downward. However, he acknowledged that the race remains competitive, with over 30% of voters still undecided.#eric_swalwell #steve_hilton #chad_bianco #tom_steyer #xavier_becerra
California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks has urged underperforming candidates in the state's gubernatorial race to withdraw if they lack a viable path to victory, warning that a fractured Democratic field could hand the governorship to Republicans for the first time in 16 years. Despite the call for consolidation, no major Democratic contender has publicly committed to stepping aside, leaving the primary field unchanged amid concerns about vote-splitting. Betty Yee, a candidate polling in single digits, dismissed Hicks' request during an event in Oakland, where she filed paperwork to qualify for the ballot. "What the early polls are telling us, and when you look behind the numbers, is close to 50% of the electorate are not paying attention yet on this race," Yee said, emphasizing the lack of public engagement with the race. Hicks' letter to candidates outlined a clear ultimatum: if a campaign cannot demonstrate meaningful progress toward winning the primary by April 15, the candidate must either suspend their campaign or endorse another Democratic contender. The deadline to file for the ballot is March 6, the same date Hicks set for candidates to evaluate their viability. Tom Steyer, another underperforming candidate, rejected Hicks' directive, stating, "It's not my role to try and figure out who's supposed to be running. My role is to try and do the best job to explain why I'm the best person to be the next Governor of California." Political analyst Dan Schnur of USC and UC Berkeley noted the unprecedented nature of the race, describing it as the most crowded and unclear Democratic primary in California history. "Only a few percentage points separate the top several candidates in the race. Once again, it's easy to see why none of them thinks it's their responsibility to step aside," Schnur said.#tom_steyer #california_democratic_party #rusty_hicks #betty_yee #dan_schnur
Tom Steyer’s intentions are righteous, but his ideas don’t add up On Wednesday, I had the opportunity to speak to gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer about his campaign. Steyer is a billionaire environmentalist with a long history of political activity. In 2020, he sought the Democratic presidential nomination. He spent millions during President Trump’s first term on an ad campaign to have Trump impeached. As a citizen, he has held fundraisers for Democratic candidates such as President Obama and Hillary Clinton and championed numerous environmental policies. Today, he’s among the top polling candidates to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, offering a progressive message to Californians. Steyer is running heavily on making corporations “pay their fair share” and has publicly stated he would like to hold a special election to modify Proposition 13, the landmark initiative that caps property tax increases. He has proposed modifying Prop. 13 to allow the state to assess commercial property taxes based on market value. When I asked him why he thought these tax hikes wouldn’t increase prices and slow economic growth, Steyer clarified that the changes would distinguish between large and small businesses. He argued that charging people fairly for commercial real estate doesn’t seem like an unfair thing to do. He also claimed that a 1% property tax is not dramatically different from what others charge and that it wouldn’t be a big drag on business. He called the current system an “actual honest to God tax loophole” and insisted it’s a “completely just thing to do.” Unfortunately, that was the extent of his answer. Typically, increasing the cost of doing business, as such a modification would undoubtedly cause, leads to higher prices and slower economic growth.#california #gavin_newsom #tom_steyer #prop_13 #rent_control
Billionaire lefty Tom Steyer pours $66 million into California governor’s race Tom Steyer’s campaign for California governor is spending money at an unprecedented rate, with his personal investment in the race now surpassing $66.7 million. Recent campaign filings reveal that Steyer contributed an additional $28.5 million this month, following earlier donations of $28 million in 2024 and $9.3 million in January. This surge in spending has positioned him as a formidable contender, potentially breaking the previous gubernatorial campaign spending record held by Meg Whitman at $144 million. Steyer’s financial commitment has coincided with a notable improvement in his poll numbers since launching his campaign in November. A new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California shows him securing 10% support, trailing behind Democrats like former congresswoman Katie Porter (13%) and Rep. Eric Swalwell (11%). Porter raised $6 million in 2024, while Swalwell’s campaign collected $3.1 million, both significantly less than Steyer’s contributions. Political consultants have noted the impact of Steyer’s wealth on his campaign. Elizabeth Ashford, a Democratic political consultant, described his efforts as “bringing a gun to a knife fight,” emphasizing his consistent support for progressive causes and his advocacy for a billionaires’ tax. This stance helps shield him from criticism about being part of the wealthy elite, as he has long been involved in progressive initiatives. Steyer’s focus on affordability, environmental issues, and taxing the ultra-wealthy has also drawn attention. Jim Ross, a state political consultant, highlighted that his campaign’s messaging centers on holding billionaires accountable, a contrast to other candidates like Swalwell and Porter.#eric_swalwell #tom_steyer #public_policy_institute_of_california #katie_porter #california_governor_race
Steyer has wrong fix for California’s Prop 13. Here’s a better way California’s fiscal challenges stem from Proposition 13, a 1978 law that caps property tax revenues by freezing valuations at 1970s levels and limiting annual growth to 2% (until sale or new construction). While billionaire gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer has correctly identified Prop 13 as the root of the state’s funding crisis, his proposed solution—reviving a “split roll” property tax reform—fails to address the core inequities of the system. Instead, it shifts the tax burden onto commercial properties while leaving the outdated, regressive structure of Prop 13 intact. Prop 13’s artificial restrictions on property valuations have created a distorted tax landscape. New property owners often pay significantly higher taxes than long-time residents for identical homes, as valuations remain frozen at purchase dates. This system disproportionately benefits established homeowners while burdening younger families and new buyers. A 2016 Legislative Analyst’s Office report highlighted how these disparities penalize mobility, rewarding those who hold property for decades while shifting costs onto newcomers. The law’s impact extends beyond individual households. It distorts urban development by severing the link between public investments and land value capture. When cities spend public funds on infrastructure like transit lines or schools, surrounding land values rise. In a fair system, this appreciation would generate additional tax revenue to fund future projects. Under Prop 13, however, the untaxed windfall of skyrocketing land values is captured by private landowners, who then charge high rents on their tax-sheltered properties.#tom_steyer #prop_13 #legislative_analyst_office #washington_state #massachusetts
