Mortgage Rate Outlook for Fall 2026: Experts Predict Continued High Rates Mortgage interest rates have remained in the mid-6% range for much of 2026, with recent data showing a significant rise. According to Zillow, the average rate for 30-year conventional loans now stands at 6.75%, a full percentage point higher than the levels seen in March. This increase is attributed to renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which have driven up oil prices and reignited concerns about inflation. Jeff DerGurahian, head economist at loanDepot, notes that these factors have kept rates elevated compared to the spring and most of 2025, when rates dropped by around a full percentage point due to Federal Reserve rate cuts. Experts suggest that mortgage rates are likely to stay in the mid- to high-6% range or possibly rise further this fall. Both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecast rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026, with the MBA projecting stability through 2027 as well. John Ortega, a senior home loan specialist at Churchill Mortgage, highlights that inflation remains elevated and the ongoing Iran conflict continues to exert upward pressure on rates. He adds that while oil prices have not yet reached higher levels, he anticipates this could happen soon, further influencing rate trends. The Federal Reserve’s actions remain a critical factor in mortgage rate movements. Currently, there is a 75% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. DerGurahian warns that if the U.S.-Iran conflict persists without resolution, energy prices remain high, or the labor market continues to show strength, rates could climb further this fall.#mortgage_bankers_association #zillow #loandepot #fannie_mae #churchill_mortgage
Zillow Forecast Puts Austin Among Top Market Losers Zillow’s latest housing forecast has raised concerns about Austin’s real estate market, positioning the city among the nation’s largest expected price decliners over the next year. The report highlights that roughly a third of U.S. markets are projected to experience declines, with Austin facing a 4.6% drop in home values. This forecast comes amid a surge in for-sale inventory and a shrinking pool of buyers across the Sun Belt and Gulf Coast regions. The Zillow analysis, shared by ResiClub, underscores significant regional disparities in housing trends. While national home values are expected to remain flat through March 2027, certain markets are showing sharper declines. Houma, Louisiana, is projected to see the steepest drop at 7.0%, followed by Lake Charles, Louisiana, at 5.6%, and New Orleans at 4.4%. Austin’s 4.6% decline would reduce the average home value in the metro area—currently around $508,530—to approximately $485,130. The figures are corroborated by Zillow’s own market page and industry reports from ACPT Wire. The divergence in market performance is largely driven by supply and demand dynamics. Redfin data from February 2026 indicates a 46.3% surplus of sellers over buyers, with an estimated 630,000 more sellers nationwide. This imbalance has given buyers more leverage in many areas, contributing to Zillow’s cautious outlook. Elevated mortgage rates, combined with an increase in new listings, have further tempered price growth. Louisiana’s Gulf Coast markets, including Austin and New Orleans, face additional challenges tied to insurance costs. A “reinsurance shock” has led to surging premiums in high-risk areas, eroding home values. The New York Times reported that these costs have already stripped thousands of dollars from property values in vulnerable ZIP codes.#austin #new_orleans #zillow #resiclub #houma
US Mortgage Rates Briefly Fall Below 6% Amid Middle East Tensions Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6% for the week ending March 5, following the escalation of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which closely influences mortgage rates, has risen since President Donald Trump and Israel launched military strikes in Iran on Saturday. Typically, government bonds act as a safe haven during market turmoil, driving yields lower as investors seek security. However, this time, yields have moved in the opposite direction, reflecting heightened uncertainty. Mortgage rates dipped to 5.98% last week—the first time they’ve fallen below 6% since 2022—crossing a psychological threshold that some economists believe could help revive the stalled U.S. housing market. While the recent increase in rates was modest, a prolonged Middle East conflict could trigger a broader bond sell-off. Combined with sustained inflationary pressures from rising oil prices, this could disrupt the recent downward trend in mortgage rates. Despite the slight rise this week, mortgage rates remain significantly lower than at the start of 2025, when they briefly exceeded 7%. Many homeowners who locked in ultra-low borrowing costs during the pandemic have hesitated to sell, fearing higher rates. This reluctance has limited the supply of homes for sale and kept prices elevated. Experts suggest that rates starting with a “5” could ease the so-called lock-in effect, encouraging more sellers to enter the market. Zillow senior economist Kara Ng noted that mortgage rates briefly fell below 6% before an oil shock reversed the trend.#iran #donald_trump #freddie_mac #national_association_of_realtors #zillow
