Sell in May and Go Away? Not With the 2026 Stock Market The S&P 500 and Nasdaq concluded April with their strongest monthly performances since 2020, sparking renewed optimism about the stock market’s trajectory. However, whether this momentum will persist into May remains uncertain, challenging the long-standing adage that “Sell in May and go away.” This phrase, rooted in historical patterns, suggests investors should exit equities during the summer months and return in November when markets are traditionally more favorable. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, recently analyzed this trend, noting that the six-month period from May to October has historically delivered the weakest returns for the S&P 500, averaging just 2.1% gains since 1950. Despite this historical context, Turnquist highlighted a significant shift in recent years. Over the past 12 years, the same period has averaged 5.1% returns, indicating that seasonal patterns are no longer as reliable a guide for investors. This trend is further complicated by current market dynamics, particularly the ongoing Iran war. Market volatility has been driven primarily by oil supply through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz, rather than traditional seasonal factors. Rising stock prices suggest investor confidence in a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which could stabilize markets in the near term. The article also points to corporate performance as a key factor influencing market behavior. Major firms such as Apple, Roku, and Moderna have reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, partly due to anticipated tariff refunds under the Trump administration. These developments have contributed to a more positive outlook, diminishing the relevance of the “Sell in May” strategy for 2026.#iran_war #s_p_500 #nasdaq #adam_turnquist #lpl_financial
