#iran_war

President Trump's Approval Rating Hits Second-Term Low in NBC Poll Amid Midterm Uncertainty A new NBC News poll released on June 14 revealed that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has reached its lowest point during his second term, according to the survey. The findings, published on the anniversary of Trump’s 80th birthday, indicate his approval rating among all U.S. adults stands at 39%, five months before the pivotal November midterm elections. This marks the lowest approval rating for Trump in an NBC News poll since his first term, with similar results observed during the 2020 pandemic-era survey. The poll highlights a significant decline in support, particularly among rural voters, who were critical to Trump’s 2016 and 2024 electoral victories. According to a separate Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted from June 3-8, Trump’s approval rating among rural Americans dropped to 50%, compared to 60% in February 2025, shortly after he began his second term. The decline is attributed to growing disapproval of his economic policies and the rising cost of living, as noted by the Reuters/Ipsos data. The survey results coincide with broader economic challenges facing the nation, including surging gas and grocery prices, which have been exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war. Trump claimed on June 14 that the conflict may soon end, though the poll underscores continued public frustration with inflation and economic instability. The economic climate has further complicated the political landscape, as Republicans face slim majorities in both the House and Senate, with Democrats seeking to reclaim control of both chambers. The NBC poll, which surveyed 2,400 registered voters from May 29 to June 7, also revealed shifting voter preferences.#midterm_elections #iran_war #president_trump #nbc_news #reuters_ipsos

ECB Hikes Interest Rates for First Time Since 2023 as Iran War Ramps Up Energy Costs The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a quarter-point increase in its key interest rate on Thursday, raising it to 2.25% for the first time since 2023. The decision comes amid escalating tensions from the Iran war, which has intensified global energy price volatility and pushed inflation above the ECB’s 2% target. The central bank emphasized that the rate hike is a direct response to inflationary pressures driven by the conflict, marking the first major rate adjustment by a major global central bank linked to the energy shock. The ECB’s Governing Council stated that the move aims to counteract inflationary pressures stemming from the U.S.-Iran war, which has disrupted energy markets and created severe supply constraints. The war, now in its 100th day, has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz waterway and the destruction of key energy production facilities in the Middle East. These developments have triggered a global energy price surge, with higher costs expected to ripple through food, goods, and services. The ECB revised its inflation forecasts upward, projecting headline inflation in the euro zone to average 3% in 2026 before declining to 2.3% in 2027 and 2% in 2028. The central bank attributed the revised outlook to heightened expectations of sustained energy price increases, which are likely to further strain household budgets and business costs. Meanwhile, economic growth forecasts were downgraded, with the ECB now anticipating average annual growth of 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028. Officials cited a more pronounced impact of the war on commodity markets, real incomes, and consumer confidence as the primary factors behind the downward revision.#middle_east #iran_war #strait_of_hormuz #ecb #christine_lagarde

Employers Added a Robust 172,000 Jobs in May The U.S. labor market showed significant strength in May, with employers adding 172,000 jobs, surpassing economists’ expectations, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3 percent. This growth followed a period of economic uncertainty marked by trade policy shifts, immigration enforcement disruptions, and a decline in federal government employment. Revised data revealed that March and April saw an additional 93,000 jobs added compared to initial reports, raising the average monthly job growth for 2026 to about 114,000 positions—substantially higher than the 10,000 average recorded in 2025. The labor market’s rebound was driven by sectors such as leisure and hospitality, which gained 70,000 jobs, and health care, which added 35,000 positions. Some of the leisure sector’s growth may have been linked to preparations for the World Cup, which attracted a surge in tourism. Meanwhile, local government employment rose by 55,000 in May, primarily outside the education sector, as the federal government’s job losses since late 2024 stabilized. Wage growth, however, slowed to 3.4 percent year-over-year, the lowest rate since August 2021. This decline, while partly attributed to the addition of more lower-wage jobs, fell significantly behind the 3.8 percent annual inflation rate reported in April. Rising energy costs, exacerbated by the war in the Middle East, have forced households to draw from savings to cover essential expenses. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting in two weeks has sparked renewed speculation about interest rate adjustments. While some officials have grown more cautious about inflation, markets now anticipate a potential 0.25 percentage point rate hike as early as December 2026, reversing earlier expectations of rate cuts.#iran_war #s_p_500 #white_house #federal_reserve #world_cup

Amid Disruption from Iran War, China Quietly Halts Sulphuric Acid Exports China has implemented a ban on exporting sulphuric acid to safeguard its domestic supply amid disruptions caused by the Iran war, with significant implications for industries ranging from textiles to fertilizers. The move has left Australian manufacturers, such as Geelong-based textile company LoomTex, grappling with a critical shortage of the chemical, which is essential for production processes. Sulphuric acid, a cornerstone of global industry, is used in manufacturing batteries, clothing, phosphate fertilizers, and even in water treatment and semiconductor production. China, the world’s leading exporter of the chemical, relies on imported sulphur—a by-product of oil refining and gas processing—to produce sulphuric acid. With trade routes disrupted by the conflict, Beijing has restricted exports to prioritize its own industrial needs. The decision has forced companies like LoomTex to confront difficult choices. Chief executive Samantha Van Zyl highlighted the dilemma: ordering additional sulphuric acid would push the company above the threshold for storing hazardous materials, requiring intervention from WorkSafe Victoria and increasing safety risks. Without the chemical, production could suffer, potentially leading to customer losses to overseas competitors. The crisis is part of a broader shift in global supply chains. Meena Chauhan, head of sulphur and sulphuric acid research at Argus Consulting Services, noted that China’s export ban, effective May 1, aims to shield downstream industries from supply shocks. However, alternatives are limited. While Canada and other sulphur-exporting nations are being considered, logistical challenges and insufficient volume make them unreliable.#iran_war #china #loomtex #samantha_van_zyl #meena_chauhan

It’s spring but nobody is buying houses The housing market remained stagnant in April, defying expectations of a rebound during the traditionally busy spring season. Despite a slight increase in existing home sales—up 0.2% compared to March’s 2.9% decline—buyers continued to hesitate, leaving real estate agents and economists puzzled. The Wall Street Journal reported that economists had anticipated a 3% rise in sales following a drop in 30-year mortgage rates below 6% at the end of February. However, the anticipated surge did not materialize, highlighting persistent challenges in the market. Buyers’ reluctance is attributed to a combination of factors. The war in Iran pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, reigniting inflation concerns and dampening purchasing power. Real estate agents cited a frozen job market and steep home prices as additional deterrents. The national median existing-home price in April reached $417,700, a record high for the month, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This surge in prices has made homes less accessible, particularly for first-time buyers. Inventory levels, while up, remain below pre-pandemic norms. There were 1.47 million unsold homes on the market in April, the highest number for the month since 2019. However, this figure is still significantly lower than the 2 million average seen before the pandemic. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun noted that a 30% increase in inventory would help balance the market, providing more opportunities for buyers and sellers to negotiate fair terms. Looking ahead, the trajectory of mortgage rates will play a critical role in determining the market’s future. Jeffrey Ruben, president of WSFS Home Lending, told the Wall Street Journal that if rates fall below 6%, sales could rebound.#iran_war #national_association_of_realtors #wall_street_journal #jeffrey_ruben #lawrence_yun

Tech Shares Decline as Core CPI Surpasses Expectations, Oil Prices Rise The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated from recent highs on Tuesday as "core" consumer inflation for April exceeded expectations, while oil prices continued their upward trend. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.2%, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1%. The pullback followed a report showing core inflation rose to 2.8% annually in April, up from 2.6% in March and surpassing economists' forecasts. This marked the highest core inflation level since September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' April CPI data revealed a 3.8% annual increase in overall prices, driven by surging energy and food costs. Gasoline prices, which have climbed over $1.50 per gallon since the start of the Iran war, contributed significantly to the inflation spike. "Headline inflation highlights the pain on U.S. consumers from the Iran War, with energy and food prices both rising meaningfully," noted Lazard Chief Market Strategist Ronald Temple. He warned that May CPI inflation is likely to remain high, with gasoline alone expected to add 40 basis points to headline inflation. Oil prices surged further on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate futures rising 2.8% to $102.30 per barrel and Brent crude climbing 3.4% to $107.77. The gains followed President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's response to a U.S. proposal to end the war. The 10-year Treasury yield also climbed to 4.46%, reflecting rising borrowing costs. Meanwhile, gold and bitcoin declined, with gold futures falling 0.4% to $4,710 and bitcoin trading near $80,800. Corporate activity saw mixed results for the Magnificent Seven tech giants. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 0.#iran_war #brent_crude #bureau_of_labor_statistics #west_texas_intermediate #lazard_chief_market_strategist_ronald_temple

US Inflation Surpasses 3.8% in April, Straining Household Budgets The U.S. inflation rate surged to 3.8% in April, marking the highest level since May 2023 and signaling a renewed challenge for American households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that prices rose 0.6% on a monthly basis, driven by a combination of energy costs, housing expenses, and supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This increase follows a period of easing inflation, which had dipped to 2.4% before the late-February U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, which reignited tensions and disrupted global markets. The rise in inflation has outpaced wage growth for the first time in three years, leaving many Americans struggling to keep up with rising living costs. Annual inflation-adjusted average hourly wages grew by 3.6% compared to April 2025, but prices climbed 3.8% over the same period, eroding real income. Economists had anticipated a 0.6% monthly increase in prices, with the annual rate reaching 3.7%, but the actual data revealed a sharper uptick, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to balance economic growth with inflation control. Energy prices remained a key driver of the inflation surge, with gas prices rising 5.4% in April—the second-fastest monthly increase since late 2023. This follows a record 21.2% spike in March, which was attributed to the energy price shock from the Iran war. The conflict has also disrupted the flow of critical materials beyond oil, including fertilizers, aluminum, and helium, further straining supply chains. Electricity prices, already elevated due to factors like data center demand and infrastructure costs, saw a 2.1% monthly increase, the fastest rise in over four years.#iran_war #donald_trump #federal_reserve #bureau_of_labor_statistics #pantheon_macroeconomics

Sell in May and Go Away? Not With the 2026 Stock Market The S&P 500 and Nasdaq concluded April with their strongest monthly performances since 2020, sparking renewed optimism about the stock market’s trajectory. However, whether this momentum will persist into May remains uncertain, challenging the long-standing adage that “Sell in May and go away.” This phrase, rooted in historical patterns, suggests investors should exit equities during the summer months and return in November when markets are traditionally more favorable. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, recently analyzed this trend, noting that the six-month period from May to October has historically delivered the weakest returns for the S&P 500, averaging just 2.1% gains since 1950. Despite this historical context, Turnquist highlighted a significant shift in recent years. Over the past 12 years, the same period has averaged 5.1% returns, indicating that seasonal patterns are no longer as reliable a guide for investors. This trend is further complicated by current market dynamics, particularly the ongoing Iran war. Market volatility has been driven primarily by oil supply through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz, rather than traditional seasonal factors. Rising stock prices suggest investor confidence in a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which could stabilize markets in the near term. The article also points to corporate performance as a key factor influencing market behavior. Major firms such as Apple, Roku, and Moderna have reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, partly due to anticipated tariff refunds under the Trump administration. These developments have contributed to a more positive outlook, diminishing the relevance of the “Sell in May” strategy for 2026.#iran_war #s_p_500 #nasdaq #adam_turnquist #lpl_financial

Exxon and Chevron Report Lower Q1 2026 Profits Amid Iran War Impact The two largest U.S. oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, reported significantly lower profits in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, despite a sharp rise in global oil prices driven by the ongoing conflict with Iran. The companies’ financial performance was heavily impacted by unfavorable timing of their hedging strategies, which were designed to mitigate price volatility but instead exacerbated losses due to the sudden and severe disruption of oil supplies. While both companies beat Wall Street’s earnings expectations, their net income declines underscore the challenges posed by the geopolitical crisis. Oil prices surged by 57% in the quarter following the U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran on February 28, which triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history. However, this surge did not translate into substantial profits for Exxon or Chevron. Exxon’s net income dropped 45% year-over-year to $4.2 billion, or $1.00 per share, while Chevron’s profit fell 36% to $2.2 billion, or $1.11 per share. The companies attributed these declines primarily to the adverse effects of their financial hedges, which were executed before the war began but proved costly as oil prices spiked unexpectedly. Exxon’s earnings were further complicated by a $4 billion loss from unfavorable hedging positions, which the company described as a “timing effect.” The issue stemmed from the fact that the product shipments hedged during the quarter were not yet delivered, so their value was not recognized in the financial results. Additionally, Exxon recorded a $700 million charge from closed hedges that could not be offset by physical deliveries due to the Middle East disruption.#iran_war #strait_of_hormuz #exxon_mobil #chevron #mike_wirth

Air fares soar by nearly 25% as Iran war forces flights to re-route The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has triggered a significant surge in airfares, with the lowest-priced economy tickets now averaging 24% more than they were a year ago, according to a new report by consultancy Teneo. The study attributes this rise to airspace restrictions caused by the war, which have forced airlines to reroute flights, increasing fuel consumption. Additionally, disruptions to oil supplies have driven up fuel costs, further contributing to higher ticket prices. The report highlights that the biggest impact on fares has been felt on routes between Europe and East Asia. For example, a flight from London to Melbourne in June now costs 76% more than last year, while a flight from Hong Kong to London has seen a 72% price increase. These surges are partly due to the loss of capacity on long-haul routes typically served by Gulf carriers, which have faced severe operational disruptions. Although some rival airlines have expanded their operations to these destinations, the number of available seats remains below normal levels. Jet fuel prices have risen sharply, from approximately $85-$90 per barrel to $150-$200 per barrel in recent weeks. Fuel accounts for up to a quarter of airlines’ operating expenses, making this cost increase a major factor in the rise of ticket prices. The rerouting of flights has also led to longer travel times and additional fuel burn, compounding the financial strain on airlines. Airlines operating from the UK have warned that if the conflict in the Middle East continues or worsens, they may be forced to cut flights and further raise fares. They have called on the government to take several measures to mitigate the impact of the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.#iran_war #strait_of_hormuz #jet_fuel #teneo #airlines_uk

Trump's Approval Rating Dips Amid Economic and Iran War Concerns A recent poll reveals President Donald Trump’s approval rating has hit a new low, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction with the economy and the ongoing conflict with Iran. The NBC News Decision Desk poll, released April 19, 2026, found that 63% of adults disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, marking his lowest approval rating since he assumed office in January 2025. Conversely, 37% of respondents approve of his leadership. The survey, conducted between March 30 and April 13, included a national sample of 32,433 adults aged 18 and older, with a margin of error of ±1.8 percentage points. The decline in approval is largely attributed to worsening public sentiment over the economy and the U.S. involvement in the joint war on Iran. The poll highlights that economic concerns have become a central issue for voters, with 29% of respondents identifying it as the most pressing issue, followed by 24% who cited threats to democracy. Disapproval of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living has surged, with 68% of respondents expressing disapproval, compared to 32% who approve. Notably, 52% of Americans “strongly disapprove” of his economic management, a 7-point increase from August 2025. The Iran war has also drawn significant criticism. Two-thirds of respondents (67%) disapprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict, with 54% expressing “strong disapproval.” Only 33% approve of his approach, and just 19% strongly support the war. The poll underscores a growing divide within the Republican base, as younger Republicans increasingly question the war’s justification. This sentiment is echoed in other recent surveys, which show a similar pattern of declining approval tied to economic struggles and the Middle East conflict.#midterm_elections #united_states #iran_war #donald_trump #nbc_news

Why Oil and Gas Prices Could Stay High in Europe Even If the Iran War Ends The recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran has not yet led to a significant drop in energy prices across Europe, despite the end of hostilities. Analysts warn that the region’s reliance on global energy markets and the lingering effects of supply disruptions mean high prices are likely to persist for months, if not years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights that the strikes on Gulf oil infrastructure caused the largest supply disruption in global oil history, with long-term consequences for both gas and crude oil markets. While the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, was reopened as part of the ceasefire, Europe’s energy prices remain elevated due to a combination of factors, including reduced production, damaged infrastructure, and ongoing uncertainty. Europe’s energy dependence on global markets is a key driver of its current situation. Although the region sources only a small fraction of its oil and gas directly through the Strait of Hormuz—around 4% of its daily needs, compared to the EU’s total requirement of 13 million barrels per day—the closure of the strait during the conflict disrupted global supply chains. The IEA notes that nearly 15 million barrels of crude oil passed through the strait daily in 2025, with the Gulf’s production cuts and damaged facilities contributing to a 10% reduction in global oil supply. Even with the ceasefire, the IEA estimates that Gulf countries have cut production by at least 10 million barrels per day, exacerbating supply shortages. The impact on European energy prices is evident in both oil and gas markets.#iran_war #strait_of_hormuz #international_energy_agency #gulf_oil_infrastructure #qatar_ras_laffan

March CPI: What to Expect from the First US Inflation Report Since the Iran War Began The Consumer Price Index for March, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. Friday, is expected to show that U.S. inflation surged sharply as a direct result of the Middle East war’s energy shock. Economists anticipate prices will rise 0.9% from February, more than triple the pace seen in January. This would push the annual inflation rate to 3.4%, up from 2.4% in February. Such an increase would not only bring inflation back to levels not seen in nearly two years but also nearly erase Americans’ pay gains of 3.5% in 2025. Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, told CNN, “We’ll definitely see elevated prices eating away at people’s paychecks.” The ceasefire reached earlier this week eased some fears that the conflict could escalate further or resolve quickly, but uncertainty remains. The war’s inflationary effects are expected to persist as energy price shocks ripple through the economy. Even before the war, inflation was already elevated, driven by tariff-related price hikes on goods and strong consumer demand for services. Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, noted, “Inflation pressures were already building before the war and are now intensifying.” The war’s impact is expected to accelerate inflation in the coming months as its aftershocks extend beyond gas prices. Sharply rising energy and gas prices are projected to be the primary drivers of March’s inflation spike. Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNN that gas prices are expected to rise 23% in March, the highest monthly increase on record for the index.#iran_war #consumer_price_index #economic_policy_institute #center_for_economic_and_policy_research #pantheon_macroeconomics

Rupee Seen Range-Bound Near 93; 95 a Trigger for Action, 100 Not in Sight, Govt Sources Say The Indian rupee has weakened by over 4% since the outbreak of the Iran war, with rising crude oil prices exacerbating the pressure on the currency. On April 7, 2026, the rupee was trading around 93 per dollar, fluctuating within a narrow range of 92.9 to 93.3 during the day. Analysts and government officials suggest the currency is likely to remain within the 92.5 to 94 range in the near term, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prioritizing volatility control over defending a specific exchange rate. The decline in the rupee has been driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions and global energy market dynamics. The conflict in Iran has disrupted oil supply chains, pushing crude prices to record highs and increasing import costs for India, a major oil importer. Despite this, officials remain cautious about overreacting, emphasizing that the rupee’s slide is unlikely to accelerate significantly in the short term. RBI Governor and senior officials have indicated that while the central bank will take measures to stabilize the currency, it does not intend to target a specific level for the rupee. Instead, the focus is on managing market volatility and ensuring macroeconomic stability. This approach reflects a broader strategy to avoid excessive intervention, which could lead to unintended consequences such as inflationary pressures or capital outflows. Government sources suggest that a potential break below 95 per dollar could trigger more aggressive policy responses, including adjustments to interest rates or foreign exchange interventions.#india #crude_oil_prices #iran_war #reserve_bank_of_india #rbi_governor

Pakistan Labor Crisis: Iran War Halts Gulf Exports, Threatens Jobs and Economy The ongoing Iran war has triggered a severe labor crisis in Pakistan, disrupting labor exports to Gulf nations and endangering the livelihoods of millions of workers. The situation has escalated as demand for Pakistani labor in the Middle East has plummeted, raising concerns about the country’s economic stability. Pakistan, which relies heavily on remittances from overseas workers, now faces a potential decline in foreign currency inflows, exacerbating its already fragile economic landscape. The crisis has been compounded by a surge in energy prices, with the government hiking fuel costs to unprecedented levels. This has further strained the economy, pushing inflation to record highs and increasing poverty rates. According to recent data, over 43.5% of Pakistan’s population now lives in poverty, a stark indicator of the nation’s deteriorating economic conditions. The labor export sector, which has long been a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy, is now under severe pressure. Previously, thousands of workers were sent annually to Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, where they contributed significantly to the country’s foreign exchange reserves. However, the war in Iran has disrupted regional markets, leading to a sharp decline in job opportunities for Pakistani workers. Experts estimate that the number of workers sent to these countries could drop by half, with the potential loss of up to 80,000 jobs annually. This decline has had immediate consequences for Pakistan’s economy. The country’s reliance on remittances has been a critical factor in maintaining its balance of payments, but the reduction in labor exports threatens to destabilize this system.#pakistan #iran_war #gulf_nations #world_bank #saeed_javed_hasan

Michael Burry: The Stock Market is 'Trump's Kryptonite' Veteran investor Michael Burry has argued that President Donald Trump’s approach to the Iran war is deeply influenced by the stock market, describing it as “Trump’s kryptonite.” According to Yahoo Finance, Burry, known for his role in the “Big Short” investment strategy, believes the market’s movements play a critical role in shaping Washington’s decisions to escalate or de-escalate the conflict. He claims Trump is acutely aware of how market declines could destabilize his political and economic agenda, leading him to prioritize a swift exit from the war to avoid further financial turmoil. Burry’s perspective highlights the growing interplay between financial markets and political decision-making. He suggested that Trump’s strategy in the Iran conflict is driven by a desire to prevent a significant stock-market sell-off, which could undermine his economic policies and public support. In a Substack post, Burry emphasized that the stock market acts as a “pressure gauge” for leaders, with negative market reactions to uncertainty compelling political figures to de-escalate conflicts more rapidly. This dynamic has become increasingly evident as the Iran war has disrupted global economic stability. The conflict has had immediate and far-reaching effects on the global economy, particularly through its impact on oil prices. Threats to oil shipping routes have driven crude prices higher, contributing to elevated petrol costs and prolonged inflationary pressures. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, noted the situation’s unpredictability, stating there is no clarity on how the Middle East conflict will evolve or how long it will last. This uncertainty has amplified volatility in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 fluctuating sharply.#iran_war #s_p_500 #donald_trump #austan_goolsbee #michael_burry

Big Short Legend Steve Eisman Says Iran War Is Running The Entire Stock Market Right Now Steve Eisman, the portfolio manager made famous by The Big Short, has shifted his stance on the impact of the Iran war on global markets, calling the conflict a “unipolar market” in a recent episode of his podcast The Real Eisman Playbook. This marks a significant departure from his earlier optimism, as he previously told CNBC in early March that the war would be “very, very positive” and that he wouldn’t alter his investment positions. However, the rapid escalation of tensions and the surge in oil prices have since altered his perspective. Brent crude, a key benchmark for global oil, has surged to nearly $113 per barrel, marking a 55% increase in March—the largest monthly gain in the contract’s history. This surpasses the 46% spike recorded during the first Gulf War in September 1990. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, which tracks energy stocks, is the only S&P 500 sector showing positive performance this month, while the United States Oil Fund has mirrored the historic rise in crude prices. Eisman’s comments highlight how the conflict has become a dominant force in shaping market dynamics, with energy prices serving as a barometer for geopolitical risk. Prediction markets have also reflected the uncertainty surrounding the conflict. On Polymarket, bettors are giving 71% odds that U.S. forces will enter Iran by April 30, signaling a likely escalation in hostilities. Conversely, a separate contract on regime change in Iran before 2027 sits at just 34%, indicating that traders are pricing in a prolonged conflict rather than a swift resolution.#iran_war #polymarket #steve_eisman #the_big_short #council_on_foreign_relations

Biggest Surge In 12.5 Years: How RBI Is Saving Rupee From Iran War Jitters The Indian rupee experienced its most significant gain in over 12 years on Thursday, surging 1.3 percent to around Rs 93.53 per dollar. This marked the strongest rally since September 2013, driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) aggressive measures to counter the currency’s earlier decline. The rupee had previously hit record lows against the US dollar, exacerbated by global factors such as rising oil prices and the ongoing Iran conflict. Despite these challenges, the RBI’s interventions stabilized the market, reversing months of pressure on the currency. The rupee’s sharp decline earlier in the year was attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which disrupted global oil markets and increased inflationary pressures. As oil prices climbed, the rupee weakened further, falling below the critical 95 mark against the dollar. However, the RBI’s decisive actions in the past weeks have since reversed this trend, with the currency’s rebound reflecting the central bank’s efforts to restore confidence. The RBI’s strategy involved a series of targeted measures aimed at curbing speculative activity and stabilizing the forex market. Key steps included capping banks’ open foreign exchange (FX) positions at $100 million to limit excessive speculative bets. Additionally, the central bank banned banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards (NDFs), which had been used to exploit the price gap between onshore and offshore markets. This move was designed to prevent offshore-onshore arbitrage, a major driver of volatility. Another critical measure was the prohibition of re-booking cancelled forward contracts.#iran_war #reserve_bank_of_india #rupee #foreign_exchange_reserves #siddharth_maurya

सोने की कीमत में गिरावट: ₹1 लाख के नीचे जा सकता है, 85300 रुपये तक पहुंच संभव सोने की कीमत में ऐतिहासिक गिरावट के आंकड़े दिखाते हैं कि भविष्य में इसकी कीमत अपने रिकॉर्ड हाई से लगभग 50% तक गिर सकती है। अगर यह आंकड़ा सच होता है, तो सोने की कीमत लगभग 2,800-3,000 डॉलर तक पहुंच जाएगी, जो भारतीय रुपयों में 85,300 से 91,400 रुपये प्रति 10 ग्राम तक हो सकती है। ऐतिहासिक गिरावट के कारण 1974-1976 के दौर में मुद्रास्फीति में कमी, ब्याज दरों में वृद्धि, मजबूत आर्थिक विकास और डॉलर के मजबूत होने के कारण सोने की कीमत में गिरावट आई। मिडिल ईस्ट में तेल संकट के स्थिर होने और वियतनाम युद्ध की समाप्ति के बाद भू-राजनीतिक जोखिमों में कमी भी कारण बनी। 1980 के दशक में अगस्त 1976 से सितंबर 1980 के बीच 541% की बढ़ोतरी के बाद, सितंबर 1980 से जून 1982 के बीच सोने की कीमतें 52% टूट गईं। ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी और मजबूत डॉलर के कारण यह गिरावट हुई। 1999-2011 के दौर में अगस्त 1999 से अगस्त 2011 के बीच सोने की कीमत में 612% की बढ़ोतरी हुई, जो 1971 के बाद से सबसे लंबी तेजी थी। लेकिन अगस्त 2011 के अंत से दिसंबर 2015 तक इसमें 42% की गिरावट आई। 2026 में क्या हो सकता है? वर्तमान में सोने की कीमत मार्च से जून 2025 के बीच इन गिरावट के स्तर पर रही है। कई बाजार विशेषज्ञ 3,600 डॉलर के स्तर की ओर इशारा कर रहे हैं। ईरान युद्ध के बाद सोने को तेल की ऊंची कीमतों के कारण चुनौतियों का सामना करना पड़ रहा है। तेल की ऊंची कीमतें अमेरिकी डॉलर को मजबूत कर रही हैं और मुद्रास्फीति को बढ़ा रही हैं। इसलिए, अमेरिकी फेड ब्याज दरों में कटौती न करे तो सोने के लिए नेगेटिव रहेगा। निष्कर्ष सोने की कीमत में ऐतिहासिक गिरावट के आंकड़े दिखाते हैं कि भविष्य में इसकी कीमत अपने रिकॉर्ड हाई से लगभग 50% तक गिर सकती है। इसके कारण भारतीय रुपयों में सोने की कीमत 85,300 से 91,400 रुपये प्रति 10 ग्राम तक पहुंच सकती है।#india #iran_war #us_dollar #federal_reserve #gold_price

Used EV Sales Surge in Europe Amid Iran War-Driven Petrol Price Hikes Petrol price spikes caused by the ongoing war in Iran are fueling a rise in used electric vehicle (EV) sales across Europe, according to online car platforms. The conflict, which began on February 28, has disrupted a critical oil shipping route, contributing to a 12% increase in average petrol prices in the European Union. The cost of petrol rose to 1.84 euros per litre, up from 1.64 euros in early February, according to European Commission data. Analysts and car marketplaces report a notable shift in consumer behavior as high fuel costs push buyers toward EVs. Terje Dahlgren, an analyst at Norway’s Finn.no, noted that used EVs have overtaken diesel models as the best-selling fuel type on his platform. French online retailer Aramisauto, majority-owned by Stellantis, reported its share of EV sales nearly doubling between February 16 and March 9, reaching 12.7% from 6.5%. CEO Romain Boscher linked the surge to rising petrol prices, stating that crossing the 2-euro-per-litre threshold has significantly influenced consumer decisions. The trend is evident in multiple European markets. In France, MG, a Chinese EV brand, is promoting its vehicles with ads urging consumers to "rethink the way you drive." Meanwhile, Amsterdam-based Olx reported a surge in EV inquiries across France, Romania, Portugal, and Poland, with growth accelerating week-over-week. Used EV sales in the UK also spiked, peaking above 1,100 cars per day after the war began, according to Marketcheck data. The shift is driven by both cost and availability. Used EVs are up to 40% cheaper than new models and are immediately available, unlike new cars that often require months of delivery.#iran_war #european_union #stellantis #finn_no #marketcheck