Kevin Warsh's Proposed Inflation Measure Faces Criticism Over Potential Policy Implications Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, has proposed a shift in how the central bank measures inflation, favoring a trimmed average gauge over the traditional core price index for personal consumption expenditures (core PCE). Warsh argued that this approach would better capture the underlying inflation rate by excluding extreme price shocks, such as those caused by geopolitical events or supply-driven spikes in commodities like beef. During his Senate confirmation hearing, he emphasized the need to focus on generalized price changes rather than one-off fluctuations. However, Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave warned that Warsh’s preferred method could lead to unintended consequences. Bhave’s analysis suggested that while the trimmed average gauge might currently show softer inflation—projecting a 12-month mean of 2.3% and median of 2.8% for February—this approach could inadvertently incorporate minor price spikes from energy and food sectors. These sectors are typically excluded from the core PCE, which has historically been the Fed’s preferred metric. Bhave noted that even if extreme outliers are trimmed, smaller shocks could still influence the inflation reading, potentially leading to a higher inflation rate than the core PCE suggests. The potential impact of this shift is highlighted by historical data. Bank of America’s trimmed-median inflation gauge, which excludes volatile items, was higher than the core PCE in 2019 and 2020. During those periods, a trimmed basket would have encouraged a more hawkish Fed stance, which could have led to tighter monetary policy.#federal_reserve #bank_of_america #kevin_warsh #aditya_bhave #core_pce
