#kevin_warsh

Fed's Interest Rate Decision Hinges on Precise Inflation Data The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on whether to raise interest rates is expected to be shaped by an unusually narrow margin of inflation data, with even minor fluctuations in August's figures potentially tipping the balance. Analysts and policymakers are closely scrutinizing the numbers, as the central bank's preferred inflation metric—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—could determine the outcome of the September meeting. The debate centers on whether the data will signal that inflation is nearing the Fed’s 2% target or if it indicates a risk of reacceleration. The key focus is on the August inflation reports, which will be released this week by the Labor Department. These include the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Economists are using these figures to estimate the likely trajectory of the PCE index, which the Fed targets for its policy decisions. A monthly core PCE inflation rate of 0.2% or lower would suggest inflation is declining toward the 2% goal, while a rate of 0.3% or higher could signal a concerning uptick. If the data falls between these thresholds, the Fed’s decision will depend on nuanced interpretations of the numbers. For context, a sustained 0.2% monthly inflation rate would result in an annual rate of 2.43%, while 0.3% would equate to 3.66%. The Fed’s 2% target would require 12 months of 0.165% monthly inflation. This level of precision has drawn criticism from some Fed officials, including Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has long argued that the central bank’s reliance on minute data fluctuations during the 2010s led to overly cautious policy decisions.#federal_reserve #consumer_price_index #kevin_warsh #producer_price_index #personal_consumption_expenditures

Vance Urges Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates to Aid Home Affordability Vice President JD Vance called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates Thursday, emphasizing the need to make housing more affordable for Americans. His remarks added to the pressure on President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly urged the central bank to reduce borrowing costs. Vance’s comments came days after Trump’s selected Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, suggested the opposite approach—raising rates to combat persistent inflation. During a White House press briefing, Vance addressed CNBC’s Eamon Javers when asked about the Trump administration’s stance on the volatile U.S. bond market. He highlighted the administration’s focus on affordability, stating, “One of the main reasons he cares a lot about interest rates is because he wants Americans to be able to afford a home.” Vance argued that higher rates increase borrowing costs, making homeownership less accessible. “We believe that the Fed should be lowering interest rates,” Vance said, framing the move as “the proper and responsible” response to recent inflation data. He acknowledged efforts to keep rates low but expressed hope for Fed support. His remarks intensified concerns about the Fed’s independence under Trump, who has openly criticized the central bank’s policies and sought to replace key officials, including Governor Lisa Cook. Warsh, meanwhile, maintained a different perspective. At a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, he reiterated his commitment to reducing inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, calling short-term interest rates “the predominant tool” to achieve the central bank’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. His stance contrasted sharply with Vance’s push for rate cuts.#president_donald_trump #federal_reserve #kevin_warsh #vice_president_jd_vance #federal_open_market_committee

Gold Faces Fresh Volatility After Rs 6,000 Weekly Plunge; US Jobs Data, Fed in Focus Gold prices experienced significant volatility as the precious metal posted its largest single-day decline since June 10, driven by renewed selling pressure following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. Warsh emphasized the need for the central bank to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target, which intensified market concerns about potential rate hikes. This hawkish stance, combined with global economic uncertainties, contributed to a sharp correction in gold and silver markets. The decline in gold prices was further exacerbated by weaker spot demand, with futures contracts on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) falling Rs 2,045 to Rs 1,54,236 per 10 grams. The October delivery contract saw a 1.31% drop, with a business turnover of 2,680 lots. Globally, gold futures in New York declined 0.51% to $4,432.51 per ounce, reflecting broader weakness in the precious metal. Spot gold prices also fell 1% to $4,407.49 per ounce in early trade, marking a near two-week low. Silver prices mirrored gold’s decline, with September futures on the MCX dropping Rs 9,893, or 4%, to Rs 2.36 lakh per kilogram. Internationally, silver futures fell $2.56, or 3.64%, to $67.78 per ounce. Analysts noted that while both metals faced pressure, silver had outperformed gold over August, gaining around 21% compared to gold’s 15.7% rise. However, the weekly correction saw silver prices fall sharply, with futures trade recording a Rs 1,955 decline to Rs 2.40 lakh per kg. The sell-off in gold and silver was influenced by multiple factors, including heightened inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.#federal_reserve #mcx #kevin_warsh #us_jobs_data #jackson_hole_symposium

Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Shows Core Prices Rose 3.3% Annually in July The Federal Reserve’s primary measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, indicated a slight rise in prices for goods and services in July. The index, which the Fed uses to guide monetary policy, increased by 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the month, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.7%, according to the Commerce Department. Both the monthly and annual figures exceeded the Dow Jones forecast of 0.1 percentage point. When excluding volatile food and energy costs, core PCE prices rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually, aligning with expectations. Federal Reserve officials typically prioritize core inflation as a more reliable indicator of long-term price trends. The report also revealed that personal income grew 0.4% in July, while spending increased 0.2%, both stronger than anticipated. Goods prices declined slightly on a monthly basis, falling 0.1%, driven by a 2.7% drop in gasoline and other energy-related items, as well as a 0.9% decrease in furnishings and durable household goods. Services prices, however, rose 0.3%, fueled by a 1.2% increase in financial services and insurance and a 0.3% gain in housing costs. Market reactions to the report included a slight pullback in stock market futures, while Treasury yields rose. Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve as inflation remains above its 2% target, despite softer monthly readings this summer. The Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not meet formally in August, giving officials a brief reprieve before their next gathering on September 15-16.#scott_bessent #federal_reserve #kevin_warsh #commerce_department #jackson_hole_symposium

Citi Maintains Bearish Outlook on the Dollar Ahead of Jackson Hole Two days before Federal Reserve President Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, Citi reaffirmed its bearish stance on the U.S. dollar. Analyst Daniel Tobón highlighted in a recent note that the bank’s team does not expect Warsh’s remarks to reverse the dollar’s downtrend, according to Bloomberg Línea’s report on August 25. Citi shifted its outlook from neutral to bearish in its August update, with its real interest rate model for the EUR/USD pointing to a potential cross at 1.18, including a possible overshoot. The calculation assumes the Federal Reserve will not raise rates, the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement additional rate hikes, and oil prices will gradually normalize. The dollar’s weakness has become a backdrop for global markets, with gold hitting a 3-month high of $4,641 per ounce on August 24, as reported by International Business Times. This trend underscores the dollar’s declining strength, which has influenced investor sentiment and asset prices. Citi’s analysis also addresses the likelihood of Warsh adopting a more restrictive tone during his speech. The bank identified three potential catalysts that could push Warsh toward a tighter stance but concluded none are currently present. These include market expectations of an overly accommodative Fed, the need to contain the long end of the yield curve, and a reacceleration of inflation. Citi argues that the market already discounts only 10 basis points of rate cuts for September, a level the bank deems insufficient to justify moderating expectations. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond remains around 4.7%, with investors still digesting fiscal concerns following the Treasury’s announcement to repurchase long-term bonds to manage financing costs. Additionally, July’s U.S.#european_central_bank #kevin_warsh #ecb #citi #jackson_hole

Global Markets to Be Shaped by Key Events This Week Global financial markets are set to be influenced by a series of critical developments this week, with the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium taking center stage. The event, held in Wyoming, will bring together central bankers to discuss the future trajectory of interest rates amid ongoing volatility in bond markets. A recent selloff in long-dated U.S. Treasuries has heightened investor uncertainty, making the symposium a focal point for monetary policy insights. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to deliver a keynote address on Thursday, drawing attention to the central bank’s potential priorities. Analysts are closely monitoring whether Warsh will emphasize long-term structural reforms within the Fed or provide clearer guidance on short-term interest rate decisions. The outcome of his speech could significantly impact market expectations for rate adjustments in the coming months. Inflation remains a key concern as rising crude oil prices and prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have reignited fears of global price pressures. Investors will scrutinize inflation data from major economies, including Australia, France, Spain, and Japan, while U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will offer further clues about persistent inflationary trends. These metrics are critical for assessing the effectiveness of current monetary policies and their potential adjustments. The technology sector is also under close watch, with Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings report scheduled for Wednesday. The results will serve as a barometer for the health of the artificial intelligence investment boom.#federal_reserve #kevin_warsh #jackson_hole_symposium #south_korea_central_bank #iceland_referendum

Fed Officials Signal Potential Rate Hike If Inflation Doesn't Cool The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 meeting minutes, released Wednesday, revealed that officials remained cautious about inflation trends and hinted at the possibility of raising interest rates if price pressures do not ease. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.5%-3.75%, where it has remained since earlier in the year. The decision followed discussions about the need for further tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% target, with dissenting members emphasizing the urgency of action. The minutes highlighted that many participants at the July 28-29 meeting believed policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline. Some officials noted that current financial conditions might not be restrictive enough to achieve the Fed’s inflation goals. The dissenters, who voted against maintaining the status quo, argued that a quarter percentage point rate increase would help avoid a more aggressive and costly tightening cycle later. The three regional presidents who opposed the decision—Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Lorie Logan of Dallas, and Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis—were among the key voices advocating for immediate action. Despite the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, recent data has shown inflation remaining well above the 2% target. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, declined by 0.1% in June but still posted an annual rate of 3.7%. Meanwhile, the labor market softened, with nonfarm payrolls dropping by 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but officials attributed this to a shrinking labor force rather than strong job growth.#federal_reserve #kevin_warsh #federal_open_market_committee #lorie_logan #beth_hammack

Kevin Warsh's Key Phrases and Their Implications for Fed Policy Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized three recurring phrases in his public statements and congressional appearances, sparking analysis among financial experts about their significance for monetary policy. The phrases—“family fight,” “first principles,” and “inflation is a choice”—have been used repeatedly in his speeches, reflecting his approach to navigating the complexities of central banking. While the exact meanings of these phrases remain intentionally vague, they signal a shift in focus toward rethinking traditional frameworks and fostering open debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Warsh’s use of “family fight” has appeared 13 times across five public appearances, including his nomination hearing in April and subsequent congressional testimonies. The term, which evokes internal disagreements within the Fed, has been interpreted by experts as a metaphor for the natural conflicts that arise during policy discussions. Dan Greenhaus, a strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management, suggests that the phrase underscores Warsh’s desire to encourage more open debate and challenge prevailing assumptions, aiming to improve the quality of decision-making over time. Loretta Mester, former Cleveland Fed president, noted that the FOMC’s meetings already allow for diverse viewpoints, though she emphasized the need for structured dialogue to ensure all perspectives are heard. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, added that Warsh’s emphasis on a more dynamic discussion style contrasts with the typically scripted nature of FOMC proceedings.#kevin_warsh #fomc #federal_reserve_chair #dan_greenhaus #loretta_mester

Federal Reserve's "Family Fight" Minutes to Reveal Shift in Communication Strategy The Federal Reserve’s upcoming release of minutes from its June policy meeting has drawn significant attention, as they are expected to provide insight into the internal debates among officials and signal potential changes in the central bank’s communication approach under Chairman Kevin Warsh. The minutes, set to be published Wednesday, are anticipated to highlight the growing divide within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) over whether to raise interest rates, with Warsh’s stance playing a central role in shaping the outcome. The FOMC meeting in June left interest rates unchanged, but the accompanying economic projections revealed starkly differing views among committee members. Nine of the 19 top officials projected that at least one rate increase this year would be appropriate, while nine others anticipated maintaining or lowering rates. Notably, Warsh, whose vote carries significant weight, did not submit a projection, leaving his position unclear. During post-meeting press conferences and public appearances, Warsh has avoided explicitly signaling his stance on rate hikes, reflecting a broader shift in his approach to policy communication. Warsh has also implemented changes to the Fed’s communication style, including shortening and simplifying the post-meeting policy statement, reducing the length of his press conferences, and establishing a task force to evaluate further reforms. These adjustments have raised questions about whether the minutes will mirror this brevity, as the document is typically a detailed account of the meeting’s discussions. The minutes are usually drafted by Fed staff and require committee approval, often through a unanimous vote, though the process may evolve under Warsh’s leadership.#federal_reserve #kevin_warsh #jpmorgan #fomc #michael_feroli

Fed Officials Split on Interest Rate Outlook in June 2026 Meeting The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 meeting minutes, released Wednesday, revealed a divided perspective among policymakers regarding the trajectory of interest rates. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ultimately voted unanimously to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate within the 3.5%-3.75% range—a level it has held throughout 2026—internal discussions highlighted differing views on whether inflation would ease sufficiently to justify rate cuts or if persistent price pressures would necessitate further hikes. Chairman Kevin Warsh, in his first meeting as FOMC chair, described the debate as a “family fight” during a post-meeting press conference. The minutes, however, avoided elaborating on specific tensions, instead outlining divergent perspectives without indicating a clear leaning toward one scenario. The document noted that some participants anticipated inflation would moderate enough to allow for lower rates, while others expected elevated price increases to persist, potentially leading to rate hikes. The dot-plot projections, which reflect individual members’ expectations for future rates, showed a narrow tilt toward one potential increase in 2026, followed by reductions in the subsequent two years. Despite the split, the committee’s decision to keep rates unchanged was reaffirmed. The minutes stated that “many participants indicated the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year,” while others argued the rate should remain above the current range. The minutes emphasized that future policy actions would depend on incoming economic data, underscoring the committee’s cautious approach.#donald_trump #federal_reserve #jerome_powell #kevin_warsh #federal_open_market_committee

ING Downgrades Gold and Silver Forecasts Amid Rising Yields and Dollar Strength Gold prices have fallen below $4,000 an ounce, marking a new yearly low, while silver prices have dipped below $60 an ounce, as surging U.S. dollar strength and elevated bond yields weigh on the precious metals market. ING, a global financial institution, has revised its forecasts for both commodities, citing the shifting focus of investors toward higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. The firm’s commodity analyst, Ewa Manthey, highlighted that the recent selloff reflects a broader market reaction to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and its implications for inflation and economic stability. The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting left interest rates unchanged but signaled support for potential rate hikes in 2026. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that price stability remains the central bank’s top priority, with markets increasingly pricing in a rate increase as early as September and a second hike by December. This tightening expectation has driven the U.S. Dollar Index above 100 points, reaching 101.69, its highest level since May 2025. The strengthening dollar, combined with higher bond yields, has created a challenging environment for gold and silver, which are traditionally seen as safe-haven assets. ING’s revised forecasts for gold now project an average price of $4,300 an ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600 an ounce in the fourth quarter, down from previous estimates of $4,850 and $5,000, respectively. Manthey noted that while the firm remains optimistic about gold’s long-term prospects, near-term headwinds have intensified.#silver #gold #federal_reserve #kevin_warsh #ing

Gold Prices Fall Below $4,000 Amid Concerns Over Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Gold futures dropped more than 3% on Wednesday, trading below the $4,000 per troy ounce mark as investors grappled with uncertainty surrounding potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. The decline coincided with a rise in the U.S. dollar and anticipation of a critical inflation report set to be released on Thursday. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which serves as the Federal Reserve’s primary measure of inflation, was expected to provide further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy direction. The market’s reaction was influenced by recent remarks from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who reiterated the Fed’s commitment to reducing inflation. Investors interpreted these comments as hawkish, signaling a possible continuation of high interest rates. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that the combination of higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and expectations of prolonged elevated policy rates has dampened demand for non-yielding assets like gold. Hansen emphasized that the $4,000 to $4,100 price range remains a critical technical level, warning that a sustained break below this range could trigger further selling pressure following the sharp correction from earlier this year’s record highs. The broader context of the gold sell-off includes a 24% decline since late February, when tensions over the Iran war began to escalate. Precious metals have underperformed compared to other asset classes during this period, with investors shifting focus to sectors perceived as more resilient to inflationary pressures. The recent drop in gold prices has also been linked to elevated oil prices, which have contributed to higher inflation readings.#federal_reserve #kevin_warsh #saxo_bank #ole_hansen #pce_index

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink as jobs report fuels Fed hike bets, chip stocks sell off US stocks fell sharply on Friday, with tech leading the way down after the release of May’s jobs report exceeded expectations, while a rotation out of tech stocks and chipmakers continued. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 0.7%, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) plummeted over 3%. The May jobs report revealed US employers added 172,000 jobs, far surpassing economists’ forecasts of around 88,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, but the strong data intensified speculation about a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Traders now fully price in a rate increase by year-end, even as President Trump advocates for cuts and Kevin Warsh, his nominee for Fed chair, prepares to take over. The rotation away from tech and chipmakers accelerated, with Broadcom (AVGO) earnings earlier in the week triggering a sell-off in the AI sector. Nvidia (NVDA) dropped more than 4%, while Micron (MU), AMD (AMD), and Intel (INTC) all fell over 8%. The S&P 500 faces the risk of ending its historic 10-week winning streak, the longest since 1985. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions added to market uncertainty, as the fragile US-Iran ceasefire and stalled negotiations continued to weigh on investor sentiment. President Trump claimed talks are in their “final” stages, but the situation remains unresolved. Bitcoin extended its decline alongside the broader market, dropping over 2% to $61,000. The cryptocurrency fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2023, a level historically seen as a buying opportunity. Bitcoin’s price has dropped 14% in a single week and 21% over four weeks, reaching its lowest level since February.#dow_jones_industrial_average #s_p_500 #federal_reserve #nasdaq_composite #kevin_warsh

Trump Administration Live Updates: Bessent Faces Reporters in White House Press Briefing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed reporters at the White House press briefing, emphasizing his confidence in the administration’s economic strategy amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions. Bessent, who recently met with Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve, stated that inflation would decline once the Iran conflict concludes. He also hinted at the Treasury’s preparation of a mockup for a $250 bill featuring President Trump’s portrait, though he stressed that such a move would require congressional approval. Bessent deferred questions about a proposed “anti-weaponization fund” to the Department of Justice, citing ongoing legal reviews. The briefing coincided with alarming inflation data, as a key measure of inflation accelerated to a three-year high, intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve to address persistent price pressures. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 3.8% annually in April, the fastest pace since May 2023, while core inflation—excluding volatile food and energy prices—increased by 3.3%, the highest level since November 2023. Monthly inflation data showed a slight slowdown, with overall prices rising 0.4% and core prices up 0.2%, but these figures underscored the broader challenge of stabilizing the economy amid the Iran conflict’s impact on global energy markets. The war, which began in late February, has severely disrupted energy supplies, driving up prices and complicating the Fed’s approach to inflation. While the central bank has historically “looked through” supply shocks, recent tensions have raised questions about the viability of this strategy. Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John C.#scott_bessent #federal_reserve #trump_administration #iran_conflict #kevin_warsh

Stocks Surge on Nvidia Earnings and Oil Price Drop as Fed Faces Inflation Pressure Major U.S. stock indexes closed sharply higher on Wednesday, driven by optimism ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly results and a sharp decline in oil prices. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, and S&P 500 all posted gains of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 1.1%, respectively. The Dow added nearly 650 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded from three-day declines. Investors focused on Nvidia’s earnings, which exceeded expectations, and a drop in oil prices following geopolitical developments. Nvidia, the world’s most valuable public company, reported adjusted earnings of $1.87 per share for the first quarter, surpassing analyst forecasts of $1.76. Revenue surged 85% year-over-year to a record $81.6 billion, well above the $78.8 billion expected by Wall Street. The company also raised its revenue growth outlook for the current quarter, signaling continued strong demand for its AI hardware. Nvidia’s data center sales nearly doubled to $75.2 billion, reflecting robust spending by major tech clients. Shares of the company rose 1.3% in regular trading, while its peers like Microsoft and Alphabet saw gains, though Apple closed lower. The surge in tech stocks was accompanied by a sharp drop in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 5.6% to $98.35 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped 5.6% to $105.02. The decline followed reports that U.S. President Donald Trump claimed the country was in “final stages” of negotiations with Iran to end the war, as well as news that three oil tankers had safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts attributed the drop to reduced concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, bond yields retreated as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.57%, down from a peak of 4.#iran #donald_trump #nvidia #kevin_warsh #fed

Senate Confirms Trump Nominee Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, in a 54-45 party-line vote on Wednesday. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve official, will replace Jerome Powell as chair of the central bank amid a period of heightened economic uncertainty. The confirmation comes as the Fed faces mounting pressure to address persistent inflation, a divided policymaking committee, and ongoing political scrutiny. Warsh, 56, will assume the role at a critical juncture for the Fed, which has struggled to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Inflation, which has exceeded the Fed’s 2% target for five years, has recently accelerated due to surging gas prices linked to the war in Iran. The Fed’s interest rate-setting committee, known as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), has been deeply divided, with the most dissenting votes in over three decades recorded at its last meeting. Powell, who has faced years of personal attacks from Trump and an unprecedented Justice Department investigation, plans to remain on the Fed’s board even after his term as chair ends, potentially creating a competing power center within the agency. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican from South Dakota, emphasized the importance of a Fed chair who understands both macroeconomic trends and the impact on everyday Americans. “Kevin Warsh is just such a person,” Thune stated during a floor speech, highlighting his commitment to addressing the challenges facing working families. Trump’s demands for change at the Fed have been a central theme of his administration.#trump #federal_reserve #john_thune #kevin_warsh #us_senate

Fed Governor Miran Resigns, Backs Warsh as New Chair Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has formally resigned from his position, effective when or shortly before new Chair Kevin Warsh assumes leadership. The announcement came on Thursday, with Miran stating he will step down from the central bank’s board as Warsh prepares to take the helm. Miran’s resignation marks the end of his brief tenure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where he served as a contrarian voice during his time on the rate-setting body. Miran’s term began in September 2025, following the abrupt resignation of Adriana Kugler, who had led the FOMC until August of that year. During his time on the committee, Miran consistently voted against the aggressive rate-cutting measures adopted by the FOMC. Specifically, he opposed the three quarter-percentage-point reductions approved in 2025 and later cast votes against three decisions to maintain steady rates, favoring instead smaller cuts. His dissenting stance positioned him as a key figure in the Fed’s evolving policy debates. In his resignation letter, Miran described his time at the Fed as “the highest honor of my life,” expressing confidence in Warsh’s leadership. The new chair, who received Senate confirmation earlier this week, is set to take over as the Fed navigates complex economic challenges. Miran highlighted his anticipation for the changes Warsh and the Federal Reserve might implement, particularly in areas such as communications policy, balance sheet management, and adherence to the central bank’s narrow mandate. He emphasized the need for the Fed to avoid entanglement in politically sensitive issues. Miran’s tenure was marked by his advocacy for a more forward-looking approach to monetary policy.#kevin_warsh #fed #fomc #stephen_miran #adriana_kugler

Kevin Warsh's Proposed Inflation Measure Faces Criticism Over Potential Policy Implications Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, has proposed a shift in how the central bank measures inflation, favoring a trimmed average gauge over the traditional core price index for personal consumption expenditures (core PCE). Warsh argued that this approach would better capture the underlying inflation rate by excluding extreme price shocks, such as those caused by geopolitical events or supply-driven spikes in commodities like beef. During his Senate confirmation hearing, he emphasized the need to focus on generalized price changes rather than one-off fluctuations. However, Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave warned that Warsh’s preferred method could lead to unintended consequences. Bhave’s analysis suggested that while the trimmed average gauge might currently show softer inflation—projecting a 12-month mean of 2.3% and median of 2.8% for February—this approach could inadvertently incorporate minor price spikes from energy and food sectors. These sectors are typically excluded from the core PCE, which has historically been the Fed’s preferred metric. Bhave noted that even if extreme outliers are trimmed, smaller shocks could still influence the inflation reading, potentially leading to a higher inflation rate than the core PCE suggests. The potential impact of this shift is highlighted by historical data. Bank of America’s trimmed-median inflation gauge, which excludes volatile items, was higher than the core PCE in 2019 and 2020. During those periods, a trimmed basket would have encouraged a more hawkish Fed stance, which could have led to tighter monetary policy.#federal_reserve #bank_of_america #kevin_warsh #aditya_bhave #core_pce

Fed Nominee Kevin Warsh's Financial Disclosures Reveal Substantial Wealth and Potential Conflicts of Interest Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh has disclosed financial holdings totaling at least $135 million in his name, with his wife Jane Lauder’s assets adding another $192 million to $226 million, according to newly released financial disclosure forms. The filings, which are part of the Senate’s confirmation process, highlight the nominee’s significant wealth, surpassing that of all previous Federal Reserve chairs. Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell, has pledged to divest some of his assets if confirmed by the Senate. Warsh’s financial disclosures reveal holdings in two funds valued at over $50 million, with no specified upper limit. His wife, Jane Lauder, an heir to the Estee Lauder fortune, holds several funds valued at more than $1 million, also without a stated cap. Lauder, who sits on the board of Estee Lauder, is estimated to have a net worth of $1.9 billion by Forbes. The couple married in 2002, and Lauder’s inheritance from her grandmother’s cosmetics empire has significantly contributed to their combined wealth. Warsh’s financial profile far exceeds that of his predecessor, Jerome Powell. At the time of Powell’s 2018 confirmation, he was considered the wealthiest Fed chair in history, with assets ranging between $19 million and $75 million. Powell’s most recent filing for 2025 shows a similar range, while Warsh’s disclosures indicate his holdings could be substantially higher. The nominee also disclosed $10 million in income from his role as an advisor to investor Stanley Druckenmiller, which he humorously refers to as his “day job.#kevin_warsh #senate_banking_committee #estee_lauder #jane_lauder #stanley_druckenmiller

Trump Threatens to Fire Powell If Fed Chair Doesn't Leave Office on His Own President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from office if the central bank chair does not resign before his term ends, escalating tensions over Powell’s continued role as a Fed governor. During an interview on Fox Business, Trump stated that he would have Powell fired if the chair remained in his position after his successor, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. The president emphasized that he had delayed the action to avoid controversy but warned that Powell’s tenure would end if he did not step down voluntarily. Powell’s term as chair expires on May 15, 2026, but he holds a dual role as a Fed governor, which allows him to stay in the position for an additional two years. While most past Fed chairs have resigned after being replaced, Powell has remained in his role as chair despite repeated questions about his plans post-confirmation. His continued presence has been complicated by an ongoing investigation into the renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, who led the probe, attempted to issue a subpoena to Powell for information but faced a judicial rejection. Pirro has vowed to appeal the decision, signaling the probe’s persistence. Trump has also demanded that the investigation into the renovation project continue, accusing the Fed of both corruption and incompetence. “What they’ve done to that so it is probably corrupt, but what it really is is incompetent, and we have to show the incompetence of that,” Trump said during the interview. The renovation project has drawn scrutiny for its cost overruns and delays, with critics arguing it reflects mismanagement within the central bank.#trump #jeanine_pirro #jerome_powell #kevin_warsh #fed