国内金价跌破1000元，通胀预期与货币政策博弈加剧 2026年3月，国内黄金价格持续下跌，现货黄金价格跌破关键支撑位，国内金饰克价一度跌至1400元以下。据市场数据显示，国内黄金价格从年初高点回落，连续跌破多个关键价位，累计跌幅达10.49%，最终跌破4500美元关口。这一趋势引发了市场对通胀预期与货币政策的广泛讨论。 专家指出，当前市场焦点正从“地缘政治风险”转向“通胀预期与货币政策博弈”。近期中东局势紧张导致国际油价波动，间接推高了市场对通胀的担忧。与此同时，美联储等主要央行的货币政策动向成为影响金价的核心变量。市场分析认为，若美联储维持紧缩政策，可能进一步压制金价；反之，若政策转向宽松，金价或迎来反弹机会。 美元走强对金价形成压制。美元指数近期持续走高，削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。数据显示，国际金价自2025年低点上涨逾75%，但2026年初因美元走强及市场风险偏好上升，金价一度跌破5100美元，日内跌幅超5%。此外，金银比跌破50，创下近14年新低，进一步凸显黄金与白银的分化趋势。 地缘冲突对金价的冲击也不容忽视。自中东局势升级以来，国际油价波动加剧，推高了能源成本，间接影响通胀预期。与此同时，加密货币市场因地缘风险出现剧烈波动，超20万人爆仓，进一步加剧了市场对避险资产的需求。然而，黄金价格的下跌表明，市场对通胀的担忧已部分被美元走强和货币政策预期所抵消。 未来，金价走势将取决于多重因素的平衡。一方面，若通胀压力持续上升，黄金作为抗通胀资产的吸引力可能回升；另一方面，若美联储维持高利率政策，金价或面临进一步承压。投资者需密切关注政策动向、地缘风险及美元指数的演变，以把握市场机会。#federal_reserve #middle_east_conflict #dollar_index #domestic_gold_price #inflation_expectation
Gold: Safe Haven Role Pauses as US Dollar Attracts Crisis Flows During the early stages of the Iran conflict, the market’s usual instinct to seek safe-haven assets like gold was temporarily overshadowed by a surge in demand for the US dollar. Traders typically turn to gold in times of geopolitical uncertainty, but this time, the dollar emerged as the dominant refuge. The Commitment of Traders data revealed that speculative demand for gold remained subdued, with managed money adding only about $470 million in net futures exposure during the week of February 24 to March 3. New long positions totaled $830 million, but much of this was offset by $360 million in short covering, indicating a lack of aggressive buying. The dollar’s rise was driven by its role as a reserve currency in a global energy crisis. As oil prices spiked and concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz grew, the US’s relative energy self-reliance made the dollar a preferred choice for investors. The Dollar Index climbed 1.2% during the period, while gold’s April contract fell roughly 1%. This shift highlighted the dollar’s function as a liquidity provider during crises, rather than a traditional safe-haven asset. However, the dollar’s dominance was not permanent. By March 11, the dollar’s rally stalled, allowing gold to recover. Over the following days, gold advanced about 1.1%, while Brent crude surged 13%. This period also saw a resurgence in stagflation-related trades, as investors began to reassess the economic landscape. Despite this, the market’s internal dynamics remained mixed. Futures open interest expanded by $5.1 billion, but the exchange for physical market softened, suggesting reduced urgency to secure physical gold.#gold #brent_crude #us_dollar #iran_conflict #dollar_index
