金价持续暴跌 风险资产集体崩盘：市场恐慌逻辑何在 3月23日，国际金价再度重挫，伦敦现货黄金盘中跌破4100美元/盎司，最低触及4098美元，日内跌幅超8.7%。国内金价同步下挫，收盘报940元/克，跌幅逾8%。现货白银同步暴跌至60美元/盎司，盘中跌幅超10%，沪银期货收盘跌超11%。有色金属板块集体承压，铜、铝、锌、锡等金属同步下跌。加密货币市场全面崩盘，比特币单日跌幅超3%。美股三大指数期货与欧洲主要指数期货亦集体走低。 一位交易人士向第一财经记者表示，传统意义上的“避险”与“风险”资产在本轮波动中界限模糊。美国总统特朗普的最新表态加剧了市场对局势升级的担忧。这场席卷全球的抛售潮背后，市场究竟在交易怎样的逻辑？ 本轮黄金暴跌令市场震惊。伦敦现货黄金继上周单周重挫超10%后，3月23日继续下探，盘中一度跌破4200美元关口。上述交易人士分析称，当前市场核心矛盾并非单纯地缘避险，而是跨资产类别的流动性挤兑。黄金的传统避险属性虽未消失，但在系统性资金压力下，其被迫让位于流动性需求。技术性破位叠加流动性虹吸效应成为金价短期加速下跌的主因。由于其他市场出现杠杆产品平仓需求，资金从黄金头寸中撤出补充保证金，导致传统避险属性暂时失灵。 面对贵金属市场的极端波动，上海黄金交易所迅速采取行动。3月23日盘中，交易所发布《关于做好近期市场风险控制工作的通知》，明确指出“近期影响市场不稳定的因素较多，贵金属价格波动显著加剧”，要求会员单位密切关注行情变化，完善风险应急预案，同时提示投资者合理控制仓位，理性投资。 宏观层面，美联储3月会议连续第二次“按兵不动”，点阵图维持2026年仅降息一次的预测，同时大幅上调今年通胀预期至2.7%，释放鹰派信号。永赢基金黄金股基金经理刘庭宇分析称，美联储议息会议释放偏鹰信号，市场对2026年货币政策预期从降息转为加息，降息预期的极端扭转与流动性冲击导致金价调整。 大有期货贵金属研究员段恩典指出，当美联储释放鹰派信号时，名义利率维持高位甚至上行，将推高实际利率，直接增加黄金这一零息资产的持有成本。更重要的是，“预期差”的极端放大导致市场流动性快速收敛，触发多头被迫平仓。 本轮全球性抛售的深层推手，是中东战事与美联储政策的剧烈博弈。周一早盘，WTI原油一度冲破100美元整数关口，延续上周强劲涨势。此前一周，布伦特原油全周涨幅超8%，站稳110美元上方。申银万国期货认为，中东局势持续胶着，地缘风险溢价支撑油价偏多；但鉴于冲突未出现如全面摧毁油田或海峡永久封锁等极端升级，且市场已对当前烈度有所定价，预计油价短期维持高位震荡。 刘庭宇判断，中东战事持续性超预期，美国经济滞胀可能性正在增加。白宫受国债利息支出压力影响，对降息诉求明确，因此通胀压力下息节奏会推迟，但转为加息的可能性较小。更值得关注的是，美国2月非农就业数据低于预期、失业率高于预期和前值，叠加油价大幅上涨抬升通胀，美国或将进入滞胀周期，而黄金过往在滞胀周期中表现相对较好。 段恩典认为，油价上涨与金价下跌的背离格局通常出现在滞胀初期或货币紧缩强周期阶段，其核心规律在于实际利率的上升速度压倒通胀预期升温幅度。油价上涨确实会强化美联储紧缩立场，抬升实际利率，持有成本上升对黄金价格形成压制，这种金融属性的利空在流动性收紧周期初期往往占据主导地位。然而，当前地缘冲突的常态化与全球信用体系的重构，使得避险仍是时代主题之一。相比之下，黄金仍是稀缺的避险资产。 刘庭宇认为，黄金和黄金股的长期投资价值及逻辑并未明显变化，短期调整为黄金及黄金股提升了投资性价比。南华期货维持战略性看多贵金属，认为回调视为中长期布多机会，但短期仍缺乏上行驱动。#middle_east_conflict #us_president_trump #fed #shanghai_gold_exchange #michael_mcdonnell
Gold Erases Annual Gains as Middle East Conflict Sparks Inflation Concerns Gold prices fell sharply on Friday, erasing all of the metal’s gains for the year as tensions in the Middle East intensified fears of rising inflation. The decline marked the ninth consecutive day of losses for the precious metal, with bullion dropping nearly 5% to below $4,300 per ounce during Asian trading sessions. The drop followed a surge in energy prices driven by the ongoing conflict, which has complicated efforts by central banks to cut interest rates in the near term. The war has heightened concerns about global inflation, as rising energy costs and disrupted supply chains weigh on economies worldwide. Analysts noted that the conflict has reduced the likelihood of immediate rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks, which has been a key factor supporting gold’s value in recent months. Gold, which does not generate income through interest or dividends, has struggled as higher rates make holding the metal less attractive compared to other assets. The decline in gold prices has been particularly steep since the conflict began, with the metal posting its largest weekly drop since 1983. Investors have increasingly turned to traditional assets like Treasury bonds and corporate stocks, which offer higher yields in a rising rate environment. Meanwhile, the war has also fueled speculation about potential geopolitical risks, further dampening demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Market participants are closely watching developments in the Middle East, as prolonged instability could lead to sustained inflationary pressures. The U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled that it remains committed to its tightening cycle, with officials emphasizing the need to keep rates elevated until inflation returns to target levels.#gold #energy_prices #central_banks #middle_east_conflict #u_s_federal_reserve
国内金价跌破1000元，通胀预期与货币政策博弈加剧 2026年3月，国内黄金价格持续下跌，现货黄金价格跌破关键支撑位，国内金饰克价一度跌至1400元以下。据市场数据显示，国内黄金价格从年初高点回落，连续跌破多个关键价位，累计跌幅达10.49%，最终跌破4500美元关口。这一趋势引发了市场对通胀预期与货币政策的广泛讨论。 专家指出，当前市场焦点正从“地缘政治风险”转向“通胀预期与货币政策博弈”。近期中东局势紧张导致国际油价波动，间接推高了市场对通胀的担忧。与此同时，美联储等主要央行的货币政策动向成为影响金价的核心变量。市场分析认为，若美联储维持紧缩政策，可能进一步压制金价；反之，若政策转向宽松，金价或迎来反弹机会。 美元走强对金价形成压制。美元指数近期持续走高，削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。数据显示，国际金价自2025年低点上涨逾75%，但2026年初因美元走强及市场风险偏好上升，金价一度跌破5100美元，日内跌幅超5%。此外，金银比跌破50，创下近14年新低，进一步凸显黄金与白银的分化趋势。 地缘冲突对金价的冲击也不容忽视。自中东局势升级以来，国际油价波动加剧，推高了能源成本，间接影响通胀预期。与此同时，加密货币市场因地缘风险出现剧烈波动，超20万人爆仓，进一步加剧了市场对避险资产的需求。然而，黄金价格的下跌表明，市场对通胀的担忧已部分被美元走强和货币政策预期所抵消。 未来，金价走势将取决于多重因素的平衡。一方面，若通胀压力持续上升，黄金作为抗通胀资产的吸引力可能回升；另一方面，若美联储维持高利率政策，金价或面临进一步承压。投资者需密切关注政策动向、地缘风险及美元指数的演变，以把握市场机会。#federal_reserve #middle_east_conflict #dollar_index #domestic_gold_price #inflation_expectation
DAX, GBP/USD Forecast: 2 Trades to Watch The DAX, along with its European counterparts, declined on Tuesday as investors grappled with the potential economic fallout from a prolonged Middle East conflict. The war in the region shows no signs of easing, with Iran launching fresh attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Tehran denying any interest in ceasefire talks. Oil prices remain elevated at around $100 per barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a focal point of geopolitical tension. As the conflict enters its seventeenth day, President Trump criticized nations for failing to commit to reopening the strait, while the European Union opted against expanding its naval operations in the area. The prolonged conflict and disrupted energy supplies are likely to keep oil prices high, placing pressure on oil-importing regions like Europe. In addition to geopolitical developments, attention is shifting toward the European Central Bank’s rate decision, where the central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 2%. The focus will be on the economic outlook, particularly amid concerns about stagflation from the energy crisis. Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index is also due today, with expectations of a decline from its March reading of 58.3. Utilities and energy companies have outperformed in recent trading, reflecting market sentiment toward energy-related risks. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair is falling toward 1.3250 in the European session after failing to hold above the 1.33 level. The pair remains under pressure as safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar increases amid uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. Markets are also closely watching the Federal Reserve and Bank of England’s policy announcements later this week. The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.#iran #united_arab_emirates #middle_east_conflict #european_central_bank #dax
Middle East conflict: Indraprastha Gas assures uninterrupted PNG, CNG supply Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) has assured consumers that the supply of Piped Natural Gas (PNG) for household cooking and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for vehicles will continue without disruption despite the volatility in global energy markets caused by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The assurance comes following the Natural Gas (Supply Regulation) Order, 2026, issued on March 9, which placed the supply of natural gas to Domestic PNG and CNG in the top priority category, according to news agency ANI. In a statement, the company emphasized its commitment to ensuring uninterrupted supply of natural gas for households and the transport sector in line with the government mandate. "Accordingly, we would like to assure the uninterrupted supply of Domestic PNG for household cooking and CNG for fueling public transport and private vehicles to maintain urban mobility as per the government mandate and availability of natural gas supply," the company said. IGL further stated that it will continue to focus on maintaining high service standards while keeping customer needs at the center of its operations. "IGL remains persistent in its commitment to excellence, ensuring that customer service is at the heart of every endeavour we undertake," the company added. The assurance from the city gas distributor comes at a time when global energy markets are experiencing heightened volatility due to disruptions in crude oil and natural gas supplies linked to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Industry developments indicate that crude oil supply has been significantly affected by the escalating military conflict in the region, pushing benchmark prices such as Brent crude to around USD 100 per barrel.#strait_of_hormuz #middle_east_conflict #indraprastha_gas #natural_gas_supply #ani
Indian Refiners Decline Amid Brent Crude Surge Linked to Iran Conflict Indian oil refiners experienced significant losses on Monday as global crude prices surged to a nearly four-year high, driven by escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. The rise in Brent crude prices, which reached $119.5 per barrel—the highest since July 2022—threatened the profitability of Indian refiners and raised concerns about potential government measures to stabilize the market. State-owned refiners Indian Oil (IOC.NS), Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL.NS), and Bharat Petroleum (BPCL.NS) saw their shares fall by 4.6%, 4.9%, and 5.4%, respectively. BPCL’s decline marked its steepest drop since June 2024. The broader Nifty oil and gas index (.NIFOILGAS) dropped 2.7%, while the energy index (.NIFTYENR) fell 2.1%. The oil and gas sector has declined 6.6% since the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran last week. Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), India’s largest refiner, also fell 0.4% after earlier slipping 2.5%. UBS analysts warned that Indian oil marketing companies face heightened risks due to their reliance on imported crude. The firms’ fuel sales far exceed domestic production, with IOC and BPCL’s sales roughly double their output, and HPCL’s even higher. UBS downgraded IOC and BPCL to “neutral” and HPCL to “sell” from “buy,” while revising fiscal 2027 profit forecasts by 19% for IOC, 15% for BPCL, and 46% for HPCL. The surge in oil prices was fueled by supply cuts from Iraq and Kuwait, alongside earlier LNG reductions from Qatar, as the Middle East conflict disrupted shipping routes. Citi highlighted that refiners’ earnings depend on the duration of the geopolitical crisis, citing risks such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and shutdowns in Qatar’s LNG operations, which supply about half of India’s crude and LNG needs.#brent_crude #iran_conflict #us_israel #indian_oil #middle_east_conflict
Chancellor Rachel Reeves asserted her economic strategy is effective despite a revised growth forecast for the UK in 2026. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government’s official forecaster, reduced its growth projection for the year to 1.1% from 1.4%, while raising estimates for future years. Reeves presented these figures during her Spring Statement, noting the OBR now anticipates lower inflation than previously expected. The updated forecasts were made before the Middle East conflict erupted, with the OBR warning that such an event could significantly impact global and UK economies. Reeves emphasized the government’s commitment to safeguarding the economy against external shocks and protecting households from international instability. Recent strikes between Israel, the US, and Iran have already driven up oil and gas prices, raising concerns about potential inflation spikes if energy costs remain elevated. The OBR’s latest projections indicate inflation will drop to 2.3% by year-end, down from 2.5% in November, and reach the Bank of England’s target of 2% by 2026. However, the recent surge in energy prices has sparked questions about whether inflation could rebound if costs stay high, potentially limiting further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. Economists and business leaders offered mixed reactions. Paul Dales of Capital Economics noted the revised growth forecast provides more fiscal flexibility for the autumn Budget but cautioned that Middle East tensions could offset these gains. Shevaun Haviland of the British Chambers of Commerce acknowledged the economy is moving in the right direction but stressed the need for faster growth, as GDP is expected to remain below 2% annually until 2030.#middle_east_conflict #office_for_budget_responsibility #bank_of_english #chancellor_rachel_reeves #spring_statement
Reeves says her plan is working as growth forecast cut for this year Chancellor Rachel Reeves asserted that her economic strategy is yielding results despite a revised downward projection for the UK’s growth this year. The government’s official economic forecast body, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), adjusted its 2026 growth estimate to 1.1% from the 1.4% predicted in last year’s Budget. The OBR also revised upward its long-term growth projections, though the immediate outlook remains cautious. Reeves highlighted the OBR’s updated inflation forecast, which now anticipates a lower rate for 2026 than previously expected. The revised forecasts were made before the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which the OBR warned could have a “very significant” impact on global and UK economic conditions. Reeves emphasized the government’s commitment to stabilizing the economy, stating it is the state’s responsibility to “secure our economy against shocks and protect families from the turbulence that we see beyond our borders.” The conflict has already triggered sharp increases in oil and gas prices, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures. The OBR now predicts inflation will decline to 2.3% this year, down from 2.5% in November, before reaching the Bank of England’s target of 2% by the end of 2026. However, sustained high energy costs could disrupt this trajectory, potentially limiting the Bank of England’s ability to cut interest rates. Economists noted that the OBR’s revised forecasts offer some flexibility for the government. Paul Dales of Capital Economics suggested the “headroom” in the budget could provide additional resources for the autumn Budget, though he warned that Middle East developments could offset these gains.#rachel_reeves #middle_east_conflict #office_for_budget_responsibility #bank_of_english #capital_economics
Reeves’s Spring Statement: Economic Optimism Amid Global Uncertainty Rachel Reeves faced mounting pressure to deliver a compelling message during her spring statement, yet the chancellor opted for a minimalist approach, offering no new fiscal commitments or spending plans. With the economy showing signs of stagnation—growth declining and unemployment rising—her insistence that the country was in “the best health it has ever been in” felt increasingly out of sync with the data. The timing of her remarks, just days after Donald Trump’s involvement in the Middle East escalated tensions and sent global markets into turmoil, only heightened the perception that her message was disconnected from reality. Reeves’s statement, which marked a departure from previous government practice, was framed as a “statement” rather than a full budgetary event. This shift allowed her to avoid addressing pressing economic challenges head-on, instead focusing on reaffirming Labour’s economic strategy. She emphasized that the government had a “right economic plan” tailored to the nation’s needs, though critics argued this amounted to little more than a reiteration of existing policies. The absence of concrete measures or fiscal announcements left MPs and analysts questioning the purpose of the event, with some suggesting it was a calculated move to delay difficult decisions until later in the year. The chancellor’s remarks also drew sharp criticism for their tone and content. She referenced the Middle East conflict, dismissing concerns about its impact on the economy as unwarranted. This stance was seen as tone-deaf, given the rising oil prices and market instability caused by the region’s tensions.#rachel_reeves #middle_east_conflict #kemi_badenoch #mel_stride #robert_jenrick
Global stocks ended lower Tuesday amid heightened volatility as fears over the escalating Middle East conflict weighed on investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 404 points, or 0.83%, after briefly losing over 1,200 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 fell 0.94%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.02%, recovering some ground from earlier declines of nearly 2.5% and 2.75%, respectively. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, surged 10% to its highest level in more than three months, reflecting growing uncertainty. European and Asian markets also faced declines, with the Stoxx 600 index falling 3.08% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping 3.06%. South Korea’s Kospi index plummeted 7.24%, marking its worst single-day performance since April. Markets in South Korea were closed Monday due to a public holiday. President Donald Trump addressed concerns over the conflict, stating in a letter to Senator Chuck Grassley that it remains unclear how long or how extensive military operations might become. During a White House press briefing, Trump defended the U.S. strike on Iran, claiming “just about everything’s been knocked out” in Iran’s military infrastructure. He also expressed surprise at Iran’s decision to retaliate by attacking neighboring countries. Military activity in the region intensified for a fourth consecutive day, with Israel announcing simultaneous strikes targeting Iranian military sites in Tehran and Hezbollah positions in Beirut. The U.S. closed embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon and issued warnings for Americans to leave 14 countries, including Israel and Egypt. Non-essential U.S. government personnel in Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE were ordered to depart due to security risks.#dow_jones_industrial_average #s_p_500 #nasdaq_composite #middle_east_conflict #stoxx_600
