Oil prices cross $100 — what lies ahead as the Middle East crisis intensifies? The Middle East crisis has intensified uncertainty in global oil markets, with prices hovering near record highs despite recent dips. Brent crude and US crude have remained above $100, reflecting ongoing disruptions to supply chains caused by the conflict. Prices dipped slightly on Friday, but the $100 threshold remains intact, driven by damaged infrastructure and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell 0.1% to $108.5 per barrel, while US crude stayed near $95.6, underscoring the persistent impact of the crisis. Analysts warn that the current price levels could persist for an extended period, especially if supply disruptions continue. Goldman Sachs has cautioned that prolonged outages may keep oil prices elevated beyond the immediate term. The firm’s analysts noted that historical supply shocks suggest oil prices could remain above $100 for years, particularly if disruptions last longer than expected. In a severe scenario, where oil flows remain restricted for over two months and production recovers slowly, Brent crude could reach $111 per barrel by late 2027. However, a more optimistic outlook, assuming gradual restoration of flows starting in April, could see prices drop to the $70 range by the end of 2026. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a similar trajectory, with Brent crude staying above $95 in the near term before declining to around $80 in the third quarter of 2026 and settling at $70 by year-end. The EIA also forecasts an average price of $64 per barrel in 2027, though these projections hinge on the duration of the conflict and the pace of supply recovery. The crisis has already begun to ripple through the energy sector.#strait_of_hormuz #united_airlines #qatarenergy #goldman_sachs #us_energy_information_administration
Oil Price: Hormuz Supply Shock Widens Gap Between Future and Physical Fuel Global oil markets are experiencing a stark divide as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, with physical fuel prices surging far beyond the levels predicted by oil futures. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, has been nearly closed due to attacks on energy infrastructure, leading to a sharp rise in Brent crude prices. The benchmark has climbed over 50% to around $112 per barrel, but the cost of actual oil being refined into petrol, diesel, and jet fuel has risen even more sharply, reflecting the growing difficulty in securing supplies. Refiners in Asia are now paying steep premiums above Brent prices to source oil from distant regions, underscoring the severity of the shortage. The impact of this supply crisis extends beyond oil markets, affecting industries reliant on fuel. In India, petrol prices have increased by up to ₹2.35 per litre, while trucking companies face higher fuel costs, some shipping firms are reducing purchases, and European airlines warn that rising jet fuel prices—now exceeding $200 per barrel—will be passed on to passengers. The gap between futures prices and the actual cost of physical oil is partly attributed to measures taken by governments to curb price spikes, such as releasing emergency stockpiles. However, analysts argue that the broader economic consequences of the disruption are more significant than what futures markets suggest. Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer at Carlyle Group Inc., noted that paper markets have become disconnected from physical markets, describing the situation as an "enormous supply shock." Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have warned that oil futures could surpass the 2008 record of $147.50 per barrel if the conflict persists.#strait_of_hormuz #international_energy_agency #goldman_sachs #carlyle_group_inc #citigroup
Brent crude jumps over 60 pc since US-Israel strike on Iran Brent crude prices have surged more than 60 percent since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, rising from approximately $70 per barrel to around $112 per barrel on Monday. The sharp increase follows heightened tensions in the region, with key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz under threat. Crude oil futures for May on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also rose by 0.65 percent, reaching Rs 9,318 per barrel. Over the past 30 days, Brent crude has climbed about 56 percent, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices hovered near $98.75 per barrel after a 2 percent gain in the previous session. The ongoing conflict has disrupted oil production in the Middle East, prompting force majeure declarations at several facilities and leading to production cuts. Escalating tensions have also raised concerns about the safety of critical shipping lanes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a vital artery for global oil trade. US President Donald Trump has imposed a 48-hour deadline on Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, warning that Iran’s power plants would face severe consequences if the waterway remains closed. Iran’s administration has countered with threats to target energy infrastructure in Gulf countries, asserting that the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked and that navigation continues despite wartime conditions. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts, raising its 2026 average Brent crude price estimate to $85 per barrel from $77 per barrel. The firm predicts a near-term average of $110 per barrel for March and April, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz expected to remain at only 5 percent of normal levels for six weeks before a gradual recovery over a one-month period.#iran #brent_crude #strait_of_hormuz #us_president_donald_trump #goldman_sachs
Oil prices rise as Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum keeps markets on edge Oil prices climbed on Monday as investors grappled with the potential for further escalation in the Middle East following President Donald Trump’s demand that Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its energy infrastructure. Fears of prolonged disruptions in the critical waterway, which handles about 20% of global oil supplies, have driven prices higher. Iran responded by warning that it would consider electric plants and water facilities in the region “legitimate targets” if its electrical grid were attacked. International benchmark Brent crude futures for May delivery rose 0.9% to $113.21 per barrel, reversing earlier losses, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May delivery gained 0.6% to $98.81 a barrel. Goldman Sachs significantly raised its oil price forecasts, projecting Brent to average $110 in March and April, up from a previous estimate of $98—a 62% increase from the 2025 annual average. The bank also upgraded WTI estimates to $98 in March and $105 in April. Analysts noted that if Hormuz flows remain at 5% of normal levels through April 10, Brent prices could surpass their 2008 peak, which reached $147 per barrel. The situation has been exacerbated by Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Tehran’s power plants if the strait was not fully reopened within 48 hours, a deadline set to expire on Monday. Iran’s Parliament spokesperson, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, warned that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Gulf could be “irreversibly destroyed” in retaliation. Since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran on February 28, the country has effectively blocked most commercial shipping through the strait, intensifying fears of a deepening supply shock.#iran #trump #strait_of_hormuz #international_energy_agency #goldman_sachs
Trump’s Iran ultimatum; IEA warns of "severe" oil crisis - what’s moving markets Asia stocks fell sharply on Monday as tensions with Iran escalated, with Japan and South Korea leading the declines. The crisis has intensified fears of a potential disruption in global oil supplies, prompting investors to reassess energy market stability. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a warning about the risk of a "severe" oil crisis, citing ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for supply chain disruptions. Gold prices dropped by 4% on Monday, erasing all of its 2026 gains, as market participants remained wary of inflationary pressures and the impact of the Iran crisis on global energy markets. Analysts noted that the decline in gold was driven by renewed speculation about central banks maintaining interest rates at current levels, which could dampen demand for non-yielding assets. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices, predicting higher prices for an extended period. The firm cited increased demand for energy amid geopolitical uncertainty and the potential for production cuts by OPEC+ members. However, the outlook remains cautious, with analysts highlighting the need for sustained supply-side constraints to justify higher prices. The market’s focus on the Iran crisis has also influenced broader financial trends. Investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, with concerns over the potential for conflict affecting global oil trade routes. The situation has added volatility to energy-related stocks and commodities, as traders weigh the risk of supply disruptions against the backdrop of a slowing global economy. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the uncertainty.#iran #trump #international_energy_agency #opec_plus #goldman_sachs
Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has proposed a novel compensation model for engineers, offering artificial intelligence tokens as an additional incentive alongside their base salary. This approach aims to reward employees for deploying AI agents, which Huang envisions as productivity multipliers capable of automating complex tasks. During a speech at the GPU Technology Conference, Huang emphasized that engineers would receive a portion of their annual salary—estimated at hundreds of thousands of dollars—as tokens, which can be used to run AI tools and streamline workflows. Huang described tokens as a growing recruitment tool in Silicon Valley, highlighting their potential to enhance productivity by giving engineers access to AI systems. He outlined a broader vision of the workplace, where human workers collaborate with vast fleets of AI agents. These agents, he argued, could handle multi-step tasks with minimal human input, marking a shift toward a workforce that blends biological and digital employees. Huang previously stated that Nvidia’s employees would one day work alongside hundreds of thousands of AI agents, comparing the scale to his company’s 42,000 human staff. The idea of AI-driven labor transformation has sparked debate among investors and economists. Howard Marks, founder of Oaktree Capital Management, warned of an "incredible leap ahead in AI's capabilities," noting that the technology’s ability to act autonomously could redefine its economic impact. Marks suggested this distinction could separate a $50 billion market from a multi-trillion-dollar one. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI could automate 25% of U.S. work hours, potentially displacing 6% to 7% of jobs over time.#nvidia #jensen_huang #goldman_sachs #gpu_technology_conference #oaktree_capital_management
US and Iran Escalate Conflict Amid Rising Oil Prices and Diplomatic Tensions The United States and Iran have intensified their conflict as oil prices surge and diplomatic tensions escalate. US President Donald Trump announced plans to “wind down” military efforts in the Middle East, but officials revealed thousands of additional troops are being deployed to the region. A senior Iranian source dismissed Trump’s claim, emphasizing Tehran’s continued stance against US involvement. Trump criticized NATO allies for failing to secure the Strait of Hormuz, calling them “cowards” and downplaying prospects of a ceasefire. The strategic waterway, critical for global oil shipments, remains closed, contributing to soaring energy prices. Goldman Sachs analysts predict oil prices could remain elevated through 2027, with Brent crude hitting $112.19 per barrel during the conflict. The US temporarily lifted sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil, a move defended by US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz as “very temporary.” He argued the decision aims to counter Iran’s strategy of driving up energy prices by allowing oil to flow to allies like India and Japan. However, national security experts argue the measure is insufficient to curb prices, as the release of strategic petroleum reserves takes too long to impact markets. Iran’s military actions have also drawn international attention. The country launched intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the US-UK base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, though neither missile struck the facility. The attack highlights Iran’s ongoing efforts to challenge US military presence in the region. CNN has sought comments from the White House, Pentagon, and UK defense officials, while the Wall Street Journal first reported the missile strike. Diplomatic tensions extend beyond the Middle East.#us #iran #donald_trump #strait_of_hormuz #goldman_sachs
