San Jose Mayor Behind in Polls but Ahead on Prediction Markets San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan trails in traditional opinion polls but holds a stronger position in online prediction markets, where his odds of winning the California governor’s race have surpassed those of prominent Democratic candidates like Katie Porter and Tom Steyer. While recent surveys by Emerson College, UC Berkeley, and the Public Policy Institute of California have placed Mahan below 5% in favorability, betting platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket suggest a different narrative. On March 13, 2026, Mahan’s odds on a $4 million Kalshi pool reached 13%, ranking him higher than Steyer at 10%, former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 8%, and Porter at 3%. This contrasts with Emerson College’s poll, which gave Mahan a 3.2% favorability rating, while Steyer scored 11%, Hilton 13%, and Porter 8.4%. A separate $1.5 million Polymarket pool also showed Mahan at 8% on March 13, with bettors placing him above Porter at 5% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 4%. However, traditional polling places the Republican candidate, who is running as a conservative, at 11% favorability, according to the same Emerson College survey. The discrepancy highlights the divergent methods used to gauge political viability. Traditional polls rely on scientific sampling, with margins of error typically around 3%, while prediction markets depend on trader behavior and financial incentives. Political sociologist Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, explained that prediction markets reflect traders’ beliefs about a candidate’s likelihood of winning, not necessarily their popularity. “Online betting is just another type of horse race,” she said.#kalshi #polymarket #san_jose_mayor #matt_mahan #emerson_college
UFC Prediction Market: Speculation on Kevin Vallejos's Next Opponent A prediction market on Polymarket is offering traders the chance to speculate on which fighter Kevin Vallejos will face next in the UFC. The market, titled "UFC: Who will Kevin Vallejos fight next?" features three possible outcomes, with current odds reflecting traders' collective belief in each scenario. The leading contender is Arnold Allen at 25%, followed by Steve Garcia at 24%. Prices for each outcome fluctuate in real time as traders buy and sell shares, with a share priced at 25¢ implying a 25% chance of that result being correct. The market's resolution depends on official UFC announcements regarding Vallejos's next opponent. Only confirmed fights with scheduled dates will count, while speculation or unofficial sources will not influence the outcome. If no qualifying announcement is made by March 7, 2027, the market will default to "Other." The UFC's official statements will serve as the primary source for determining the correct result. Traders can participate by selecting an outcome, choosing to "Yes" or "No" bet on it, and entering a trade amount. If the chosen outcome is correct at resolution, "Yes" shares pay out $1 each, while incorrect bets yield $0. Shares can also be sold before the market closes to lock in profits or cut losses. The market is set to resolve on or around March 8, 2027, with trading remaining open until then. The market's odds are considered reliable due to the involvement of real traders wagering real money, though early-stage markets like this one are still building their participant base. Polymarket has a strong track record of accuracy, with a one-month accuracy score of 94%, according to its own data. Users can track trading activity and volume as the market gains traction.#ufc #polymarket #kevin_vallejos #arnold_allen #steve_garcia
ACF Fiorentina vs. Udinese Calcio Prediction Market Analysis The prediction market for the Serie A clash between ACF Fiorentina and Udinese Calcio, set for March 2, 2026, has attracted significant trading activity on Polymarket. With a total volume of $863.93K, the market reflects real-time probabilities derived from trader activity, offering insights into the likely outcome of the match. Udinese Calcio is currently priced at 100¢, implying a 100% implied probability of victory, while ACF Fiorentina is listed at 0¢, suggesting no chance of winning. These odds are subject to change as traders buy and sell shares, influenced by new information and shifting perspectives. The market allows participants to trade on multiple aspects of the game, including the moneyline (which team wins), spreads (margin of victory), totals (combined score over/under), and player props (individual performance metrics). Each market type provides different ways to engage with the event, with prices updating dynamically to reflect collective trader sentiment. For example, the moneyline market highlights Udinese’s dominance in current odds, while other markets offer opportunities to bet on specific outcomes such as exact scores or halftime results. Traders can participate by selecting a market type, choosing a side to bet on, and entering the amount they wish to trade. If their chosen outcome is correct at the end of the match, they receive $1 per share, while incorrect bets result in zero payout. The market resolves based on the official final score from Serie A, including any overtime if applicable. In the event of a postponed or canceled game, predefined resolution rules outline how the market will be settled, ensuring clarity for participants.#prediction_market #serie_a #polymarket #ac_fiorentina #udinese_calcio
Someone made $553K on a Polymarket bet on Khamenei's death An account operating under the username "Magamyman" earned over $553,000 by placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket regarding the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, shortly before an Israeli strike killed him. The trade occurred amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, following U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran in February 2026. The strike, which targeted Iran’s leadership, prompted retaliatory attacks on Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf. The trader’s success drew criticism from lawmakers and critics of prediction markets, who argue that such platforms enable individuals with access to classified information to profit from lethal military operations. Polymarket saw half a billion dollars in trades predicting the timing of U.S. strikes on Iran. Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) condemned the practice, calling it “insane” and vowing to introduce legislation to ban similar activities. The incident highlights broader concerns about the legal and ethical implications of betting on geopolitical events. U.S. commodity trading laws prohibit wagering on death and war, as these bets could incentivize violence and instability. However, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have operated in legal gray areas, with some traders exploiting loopholes. Kalshi, another major prediction market, faced backlash after pausing trades on Khamenei’s death and refunding fees to users. The platform’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, stated that markets tied to death are not allowed, and the company designed rules to prevent profiting from such outcomes. Traders criticized the decision as unfair, arguing they had been misled by Kalshi’s prior promotion of the market. The controversy underscores growing calls for regulatory action.#ayatollah_ali_khamenei #magamyman #polymarket #chris_murphy #tarek_mansour
