Poll: Tight Race for US Senate Between Cotton, Shoffner A new statewide survey conducted in late August 2026 reveals a closely contested race for the U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas, with Democratic candidate Hallie Shoffner narrowly leading incumbent Republican Senator Tom Cotton. The Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll, which surveyed 1,217 likely voters, shows Shoffner securing 47.4% of support compared to Cotton’s 44%, with Libertarian Jeff Wadlin trailing at 3%. Undecided voters account for 5.6% of the sample, placing the race within the poll’s margin of error of 4.7%. The survey, conducted August 11-12, 2026, highlights a competitive dynamic between the two candidates. Shoffner’s lead, while slim, is tempered by the fact that Cotton remains a strong contender among key demographics. For instance, Cotton garners 82% of Republican identifiers, while Shoffner enjoys near-universal support from Democrats and leads Independents by 59% to 29%. However, the race remains fluid, with analysts noting that the outcome could shift significantly as the campaign intensifies. Roby Brock, editor-in-chief of Talk Business & Politics, emphasized the race’s volatility, stating, “Today, this race is a competitive one, but I believe we have miles of messaging to go before attitudes solidify. The amount of money likely to be poured into Arkansas to influence the outcome will be substantial.” Brock added that the campaign will continue to monitor the race until early voting begins. The poll’s analysis underscores the influence of national political trends on the Arkansas race. Robert Coon, a Republican political strategist, pointed out that Donald Trump’s record low approval ratings are affecting Republican candidates, including Cotton.#tom_cotton #talk_business_and_politics #hendrix_college #hallie_shoffner #jeff_wadlin
