Goldman Sachs Predicts Spain to Win 2026 World Cup with 26% Chance Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, has released its World Cup predictions for the 2026 tournament, giving Spain a 26% chance of winning, followed by France at 19% and Argentina at 14%. The bank’s model analyzed nearly 20,000 matches since 1978, incorporating factors such as historical performance, scoring talent, team momentum, geography, and the so-called “winner’s slump.” The latter refers to the potential underperformance of teams that have recently won major tournaments, such as Argentina, which may struggle after its 2022 victory. Goldman’s report, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, also outlined probabilities for advancement in the tournament. Host nations Canada, Mexico, and the United States were given 50%, 68%, and 39% chances, respectively, of reaching the Round of 16. The bank’s analysis emphasized the unpredictability of soccer, noting that while its model is data-driven, it cannot account for variables like player health, managerial experience, or sudden changes in team dynamics. The firm’s predictions for the 2026 tournament contrast with its past attempts, including the 2014 and 2018 World Cups. In 2018, Goldman projected Brazil had an 18% chance to win against Germany, but Brazil was eliminated in the quarterfinals, while France ultimately triumphed over Croatia. The bank acknowledged its model’s limitations, stating that soccer’s inherent unpredictability makes precise forecasts challenging. Goldman’s current model is described as sensitive to new information, such as unexpected developments during the tournament. For instance, the firm noted Russia’s unexpectedly strong performance in the 2018 tournament influenced its predictions.#france #argentina #spain #goldman_sachs #jan_hatzius
