March CPI: What to Expect from the First US Inflation Report Since the Iran War Began The Consumer Price Index for March, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. Friday, is expected to show that U.S. inflation surged sharply as a direct result of the Middle East war’s energy shock. Economists anticipate prices will rise 0.9% from February, more than triple the pace seen in January. This would push the annual inflation rate to 3.4%, up from 2.4% in February. Such an increase would not only bring inflation back to levels not seen in nearly two years but also nearly erase Americans’ pay gains of 3.5% in 2025. Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, told CNN, “We’ll definitely see elevated prices eating away at people’s paychecks.” The ceasefire reached earlier this week eased some fears that the conflict could escalate further or resolve quickly, but uncertainty remains. The war’s inflationary effects are expected to persist as energy price shocks ripple through the economy. Even before the war, inflation was already elevated, driven by tariff-related price hikes on goods and strong consumer demand for services. Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, noted, “Inflation pressures were already building before the war and are now intensifying.” The war’s impact is expected to accelerate inflation in the coming months as its aftershocks extend beyond gas prices. Sharply rising energy and gas prices are projected to be the primary drivers of March’s inflation spike. Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNN that gas prices are expected to rise 23% in March, the highest monthly increase on record for the index.#iran_war #consumer_price_index #economic_policy_institute #center_for_economic_and_policy_research #pantheon_macroeconomics
