US Waiver On Russian Oil Ends: Will India Raise Fuel Prices Again? The Trump administration's sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne crude oil expired on May 17, ending a temporary reprieve for India's energy strategy. This decision, which had allowed India to continue importing Russian oil without facing U.S. penalties, now forces the country to confront a dual crisis: rising global oil prices and the geopolitical risks of relying on Russian supplies. The waiver's expiration coincided with ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, which has driven global crude prices above $105 per barrel—up from around $72 before the Iran war escalated tensions. India, which imports over 85% of its crude oil, now faces a precarious situation as its reliance on Russian oil, which accounted for nearly half of its total imports in May, becomes more politically and economically risky. For nearly two years, India had leveraged the waiver to secure discounted Russian crude, a strategy that helped shield the country from the worst effects of the global oil shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. During this period, Indian refiners purchased record volumes of Russian oil, with imports reaching 2.3 million barrels per day in May. This supply chain provided a critical buffer against soaring global prices, allowing India to maintain relatively stable fuel costs despite the broader economic turmoil. However, the waiver's expiration has disrupted this balance, leaving India vulnerable to both sanctions risks and the financial strain of higher oil prices. The timing of the waiver's end has been particularly challenging. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint for geopolitical tensions, with tanker movements slowed by the Iran war and insurance costs soaring.#india #strait_of_hormuz #trump_administration #russian_oil #petros_stone_llp
