金价持续暴跌 风险资产集体崩盘：市场恐慌逻辑何在 3月23日，国际金价再度重挫，伦敦现货黄金盘中跌破4100美元/盎司，最低触及4098美元，日内跌幅超8.7%。国内金价同步下挫，收盘报940元/克，跌幅逾8%。现货白银同步暴跌至60美元/盎司，盘中跌幅超10%，沪银期货收盘跌超11%。有色金属板块集体承压，铜、铝、锌、锡等金属同步下跌。加密货币市场全面崩盘，比特币单日跌幅超3%。美股三大指数期货与欧洲主要指数期货亦集体走低。 一位交易人士向第一财经记者表示，传统意义上的“避险”与“风险”资产在本轮波动中界限模糊。美国总统特朗普的最新表态加剧了市场对局势升级的担忧。这场席卷全球的抛售潮背后，市场究竟在交易怎样的逻辑？ 本轮黄金暴跌令市场震惊。伦敦现货黄金继上周单周重挫超10%后，3月23日继续下探，盘中一度跌破4200美元关口。上述交易人士分析称，当前市场核心矛盾并非单纯地缘避险，而是跨资产类别的流动性挤兑。黄金的传统避险属性虽未消失，但在系统性资金压力下，其被迫让位于流动性需求。技术性破位叠加流动性虹吸效应成为金价短期加速下跌的主因。由于其他市场出现杠杆产品平仓需求，资金从黄金头寸中撤出补充保证金，导致传统避险属性暂时失灵。 面对贵金属市场的极端波动，上海黄金交易所迅速采取行动。3月23日盘中，交易所发布《关于做好近期市场风险控制工作的通知》，明确指出“近期影响市场不稳定的因素较多，贵金属价格波动显著加剧”，要求会员单位密切关注行情变化，完善风险应急预案，同时提示投资者合理控制仓位，理性投资。 宏观层面，美联储3月会议连续第二次“按兵不动”，点阵图维持2026年仅降息一次的预测，同时大幅上调今年通胀预期至2.7%，释放鹰派信号。永赢基金黄金股基金经理刘庭宇分析称，美联储议息会议释放偏鹰信号，市场对2026年货币政策预期从降息转为加息，降息预期的极端扭转与流动性冲击导致金价调整。 大有期货贵金属研究员段恩典指出，当美联储释放鹰派信号时，名义利率维持高位甚至上行，将推高实际利率，直接增加黄金这一零息资产的持有成本。更重要的是，“预期差”的极端放大导致市场流动性快速收敛，触发多头被迫平仓。 本轮全球性抛售的深层推手，是中东战事与美联储政策的剧烈博弈。周一早盘，WTI原油一度冲破100美元整数关口，延续上周强劲涨势。此前一周，布伦特原油全周涨幅超8%，站稳110美元上方。申银万国期货认为，中东局势持续胶着，地缘风险溢价支撑油价偏多；但鉴于冲突未出现如全面摧毁油田或海峡永久封锁等极端升级，且市场已对当前烈度有所定价，预计油价短期维持高位震荡。 刘庭宇判断，中东战事持续性超预期，美国经济滞胀可能性正在增加。白宫受国债利息支出压力影响，对降息诉求明确，因此通胀压力下息节奏会推迟，但转为加息的可能性较小。更值得关注的是，美国2月非农就业数据低于预期、失业率高于预期和前值，叠加油价大幅上涨抬升通胀，美国或将进入滞胀周期，而黄金过往在滞胀周期中表现相对较好。 段恩典认为，油价上涨与金价下跌的背离格局通常出现在滞胀初期或货币紧缩强周期阶段，其核心规律在于实际利率的上升速度压倒通胀预期升温幅度。油价上涨确实会强化美联储紧缩立场，抬升实际利率，持有成本上升对黄金价格形成压制，这种金融属性的利空在流动性收紧周期初期往往占据主导地位。然而，当前地缘冲突的常态化与全球信用体系的重构，使得避险仍是时代主题之一。相比之下，黄金仍是稀缺的避险资产。 刘庭宇认为，黄金和黄金股的长期投资价值及逻辑并未明显变化，短期调整为黄金及黄金股提升了投资性价比。南华期货维持战略性看多贵金属，认为回调视为中长期布多机会，但短期仍缺乏上行驱动。#middle_east_conflict #us_president_trump #fed #shanghai_gold_exchange #michael_mcdonnell
What we know on the 11th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran Strikes in the Middle East have continued for a second week, with US President Trump offering conflicting statements about the duration of the conflict. Meanwhile, Iran has signaled its readiness for a prolonged battle. The humanitarian crisis has worsened, displacing hundreds of thousands of people and resulting in over 1,700 deaths across the region. The war has also triggered the largest oil disruption in history, raising concerns even within the Trump administration. Key developments on day 11 include the ongoing fallout from a strike on an Iranian girls’ school that killed at least 168 children. Iranian state media reported the attack, while Trump claimed other nations could have targeted the school, falsely asserting that Iran possesses Tomahawk missiles. Footage emerged suggesting a US missile was directed at an Iranian naval base near the school. The oil crisis has intensified, with an estimated 20% of global oil supply disrupted. Pakistan has implemented strict austerity measures, South Korea is introducing its first fuel price cap in nearly three decades, and G7 ministers convened to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves. Trump hinted at waiving certain oil-related sanctions but did not specify which, and he claimed the war would eventually lower oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point, with Tehran and Washington exchanging threats over the critical waterway, which has been closed since the conflict began. Trump attempted to reassure tanker operators refusing to transit the strait, warning of harsher actions if Iran blocked oil flow. Iran responded by stating its armed forces were “awaiting” US naval vessels in the area.#iran #strait_of_hormuz #un #iranian_women_s_soccer_team #us_president_trump
