Indian Meteorological Department Forecasts Below-Average Monsoon Rainfall for India This Year The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast predicting below-average rainfall during the southwest monsoon season for the country this year. According to the second phase of the long-range monsoon forecast released in New Delhi, the nation may experience a drought-like scenario, with rainfall expected to be 90% of the long-term average. This prediction comes amid concerns about the potential strengthening of El Nino, a climate phenomenon linked to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures. The IMD’s director, Dr. M. Mahapatra, highlighted that the monsoon’s onset in Kerala is likely to occur within a week, with the first rains expected around May 26. However, the actual monsoon season, which typically begins in June, may be delayed by a week compared to historical patterns. This delay could exacerbate the risk of drought conditions, particularly in southern India, where rainfall is projected to be 92% of the long-term average. The forecast also notes that while some regions in the south, such as Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu, may receive slightly above-average rainfall, the overall trend for the country remains below normal. The IMD’s analysis suggests that the monsoon’s progression will be influenced by the development of El Nino, which is expected to intensify by July. This phenomenon is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt typical monsoon patterns and lead to drier conditions in parts of India. Dr. R. Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, emphasized that while the monsoon may start in Kerala within a week, the broader impact on the country’s rainfall remains uncertain.#el_nino #indian_meteorological_department #ministry_of_earth_sciences #dr_m_mahapatra #dr_r_ravichandran
