Indian Meteorological Department Forecasts Below-Average Monsoon Rainfall for India This Year The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast predicting below-average rainfall during the southwest monsoon season for the country this year. According to the second phase of the long-range monsoon forecast released in New Delhi, the nation may experience a drought-like scenario, with rainfall expected to be 90% of the long-term average. This prediction comes amid concerns about the potential strengthening of El Nino, a climate phenomenon linked to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures. The IMD’s director, Dr. M. Mahapatra, highlighted that the monsoon’s onset in Kerala is likely to occur within a week, with the first rains expected around May 26. However, the actual monsoon season, which typically begins in June, may be delayed by a week compared to historical patterns. This delay could exacerbate the risk of drought conditions, particularly in southern India, where rainfall is projected to be 92% of the long-term average. The forecast also notes that while some regions in the south, such as Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu, may receive slightly above-average rainfall, the overall trend for the country remains below normal. The IMD’s analysis suggests that the monsoon’s progression will be influenced by the development of El Nino, which is expected to intensify by July. This phenomenon is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt typical monsoon patterns and lead to drier conditions in parts of India. Dr. R. Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, emphasized that while the monsoon may start in Kerala within a week, the broader impact on the country’s rainfall remains uncertain.#el_nino #indian_meteorological_department #ministry_of_earth_sciences #dr_m_mahapatra #dr_r_ravichandran
India Rain Forecast: IMD Predicts Below-Average Monsoon Rains for 2026 Amid El Niño Concerns The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a long-range forecast predicting below-average monsoon rainfall for the southwest monsoon season in 2026, which spans from June to September. The forecast, released on April 13, 2026, has raised concerns about the potential impact on agricultural productivity and economic growth. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the monsoon rainfall is expected to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is the average rainfall recorded over the past 50 years. This projection comes amid growing worries about the influence of El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which is often linked to reduced monsoon activity in South Asia. The IMD’s announcement was made during a press briefing held on April 13, 2026, where MoES Secretary M. Ravichandran emphasized the significance of the forecast. He stated that the below-normal rainfall could pose challenges for farmers, particularly in regions heavily reliant on monsoon-dependent agriculture. The forecast also highlights the broader economic implications, as agricultural output is a critical component of India’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. Reduced monsoon rains could lead to lower crop yields, affecting food security and potentially triggering inflationary pressures. The IMD’s long-range forecast is based on a combination of climatic indicators and historical data. The department has noted that the current El Niño conditions are likely to persist through the monsoon season, further exacerbating the risk of below-average rainfall.#india_meteorological_department #el_nino #ministry_of_earth_sciences #m_ravichandran #south_asia
