El Niño to Impact India's Monsoon Season, IMD Warns of Reduced Rainfall The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that El Niño, a periodic warming phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to reach India during the monsoon season. This development could lead to significantly lower rainfall compared to average levels, according to Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the IMD's Director General. The warning comes as the IMD has already forecasted a below-average monsoon season for the upcoming months, with rainfall potentially falling short of historical norms. El Niño, which is characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific, is predicted to arrive in India by June 2026, though it may initially be weak. Mohapatra noted that the phenomenon could gain strength by late July or August, reaching full intensity by September. At that point, El Niño is expected to trigger cascading weather effects globally, including altered monsoon patterns in South Asia. The IMD's assessment aligns with predictions from international climate agencies. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and China's National Climate Center have also indicated that El Niño conditions are likely to develop in the coming months. NASA satellite data has identified a large warm pool of water in the Pacific, a key indicator of El Niño formation. Scientists highlight that this warming trend is spreading eastward, signaling the potential onset of the phenomenon. Historically, El Niño has been linked to weaker monsoons in India, with reduced rainfall leading to challenges for agriculture and water resources.#el_nino #indian_meteorological_department #dr_mrutunjay_mohapatra #australian_bureau_of_meteorology #china_national_climate_center
Indian Meteorological Department Forecasts Below-Average Monsoon Rainfall for India This Year The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast predicting below-average rainfall during the southwest monsoon season for the country this year. According to the second phase of the long-range monsoon forecast released in New Delhi, the nation may experience a drought-like scenario, with rainfall expected to be 90% of the long-term average. This prediction comes amid concerns about the potential strengthening of El Nino, a climate phenomenon linked to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures. The IMD’s director, Dr. M. Mahapatra, highlighted that the monsoon’s onset in Kerala is likely to occur within a week, with the first rains expected around May 26. However, the actual monsoon season, which typically begins in June, may be delayed by a week compared to historical patterns. This delay could exacerbate the risk of drought conditions, particularly in southern India, where rainfall is projected to be 92% of the long-term average. The forecast also notes that while some regions in the south, such as Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu, may receive slightly above-average rainfall, the overall trend for the country remains below normal. The IMD’s analysis suggests that the monsoon’s progression will be influenced by the development of El Nino, which is expected to intensify by July. This phenomenon is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt typical monsoon patterns and lead to drier conditions in parts of India. Dr. R. Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, emphasized that while the monsoon may start in Kerala within a week, the broader impact on the country’s rainfall remains uncertain.#el_nino #indian_meteorological_department #ministry_of_earth_sciences #dr_m_mahapatra #dr_r_ravichandran
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Calls for School Holidays Amid Severe Heatwave Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has directed local authorities to declare school holidays in regions experiencing extreme heatwave conditions, as the state continues to face dangerously high temperatures. The directive came during a review meeting on Friday, where officials reported that the heatwave intensity had surged due to severe El Niño conditions. The Chief Minister emphasized the need for immediate action to protect citizens from the adverse effects of the extreme weather. Officials informed the Chief Minister that temperatures in the state had risen sharply over the past three days, reaching as high as 48 degrees Celsius—comparable to the peak temperatures recorded during the 2015 El Niño year, which saw a record of 50.1 degrees Celsius. The state’s meteorological department noted that temperatures had climbed from 45 degrees Celsius to 48 degrees Celsius in recent days, raising concerns about the health and safety of the population. In response, the Chief Minister instructed officials to identify areas with the highest temperatures and issue continuous warnings and advisories to residents. He also called for the establishment of emergency response centers across the state to manage the crisis effectively. District Collectors were directed to spread awareness about heatwave safety measures and ensure that information is disseminated through media and social media platforms. The Chief Minister highlighted the importance of increasing green cover in the state, noting that improved groundwater levels contribute to vegetation growth, which can help mitigate the impact of extreme heat. He cited Annamayya district as an example, where temperatures remained comparatively lower than in other regions.#andhra_pradesh #el_nino #n_chandrababu_naidu #annamayya_district #g_sai_prasad
El Niño Intensifies with Rising Odds of Historic Strength El Niño is developing faster than anticipated in the Pacific Ocean, with scientists now predicting a significant increase in the likelihood of it becoming a historically strong or “Super” El Niño by fall or winter. According to a recent update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 66% chance that the phenomenon will reach strong or very strong intensity, marking a notable shift from previous forecasts. This development has raised concerns about its potential global impacts, as El Niño is known to disrupt weather patterns worldwide, exacerbating extreme conditions such as droughts, heatwaves, and flooding. El Niño is a natural climate cycle characterized by the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which alters atmospheric wind patterns and triggers widespread weather changes. The strength of an El Niño event is measured by how much sea-surface temperatures rise above average in the equatorial Pacific. Weak El Niño conditions are defined as temperatures exceeding 0.5 degrees Celsius above average, while very strong or “Super” El Niño events require temperatures to surpass 2 degrees Celsius. Currently, the average water temperature in the region is just below the 0.5-degree threshold, but models predict it will cross that mark by next month, signaling the onset of El Niño. The Climate Prediction Center’s latest update indicates that the event is expected to strengthen through the summer and fall, with a near-certainty (96%) that it will persist into the winter months. This confidence stems from the accumulation of warm water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which is set to rise to the surface, fueling the El Niño phenomenon.#caribbean #el_nino #noaa_climate_prediction_center #michelle_lheureux #central_pacific
State Machinery Put on High Alert for Potential Drought-Like Situation The Maharashtra government has activated its administrative machinery to prepare for a potential drought scenario, following concerns over the anticipated impact of El Niño. Revenue Minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule announced the initiative on Monday, stating that the state government had begun planning measures to address the crisis. The decision came after a cabinet meeting where all guardian ministers were directed to take necessary steps, and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis reviewed the situation with district collectors across the state. A detailed meeting on drought preparedness is scheduled to assess various aspects and finalize the response strategy. Bawankule emphasized the need for vigilance, noting that the El Niño phenomenon could exacerbate water shortages and disrupt agricultural activities. The minister also highlighted the importance of coordinating with local authorities to ensure timely action. While the focus remains on drought mitigation, the minister launched a political attack on the Congress party, accusing it of undermining women's reservation policies. He claimed that while Prime Minister Narendra Modi expanded opportunities for women in Parliament, the Congress worked to prevent marginalized groups, including Scheduled Castes, Other Backward Classes, and women, from advancing. The minister also addressed the issue of missing tribal girls in Yavatmal district, stating that the home department is handling the matter under the direct attention of Fadnavis. He described the situation as a serious concern for Vidarbha and mentioned that tribal development minister Ashok Uike is closely monitoring the case.#maharashtra_government #devendra_fadnavis #el_nino #yavatmal_district #chandrashekhar_bawankule
IMD Forecasts Crisis Looming Over Gujarat as El Nino Development and Reduced Rainfall Threaten State The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning about an impending crisis for Gujarat, citing the possibility of El Nino developing after June and the potential for below-normal rainfall in the state. According to forecasts from the IMD and private agencies, the development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean after June could significantly impact the Indian monsoon season, with far-reaching consequences for agriculture and water resources. Farmers and government officials are already expressing concerns over the implications of these weather patterns. The latest reports indicate that the country is expected to receive 92% of its average rainfall during the monsoon season, which is below the normal level. This projection has raised alarms, particularly in Gujarat, where several regions are anticipated to experience lower-than-average rainfall. While some areas may see normal rainfall, the overall impact of El Nino is expected to be detrimental, affecting crop yields and water levels. The IMD’s initial forecast for the monsoon season, covering June to September, has already sparked discussions about the need for preparedness. The IMD is continuously monitoring the situation and plans to release a more detailed and accurate forecast in May. This updated projection is expected to provide clearer insights into the monsoon’s behavior, including the potential for higher temperatures and delayed rainfall. Experts warn that the combined effects of El Nino and rising temperatures could lead to prolonged dry spells, further straining agricultural production and water availability. Farmers are being advised to adjust their planting schedules and irrigation strategies in light of these forecasts.#agriculture #india_meteorological_department #gujarat #monsoon_season #el_nino
Vidarbha among regions likely to see below normal monsoon: IMD The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon on Monday, predicting a likelihood of below-normal rainfall across Central India, including the Vidarbha region, during the June-to-September season. The forecast highlights potential challenges for agriculture and water management in Central India, particularly in rain-fed areas like Vidarbha, which are already vulnerable to erratic weather patterns. IMD’s probability maps indicate that large parts of Central India and eastern Maharashtra are in yellow to orange zones, signaling a 45% to over 65% chance of below-normal rainfall. This assessment places Central India among the regions most at risk of deficient precipitation, even as other parts of the country, such as sections of Northwest, Northeast, and South Peninsular India, may experience normal to above-normal rainfall. The national monsoon forecast for 2026 is pegged at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is categorized as below normal. The IMD noted that the combined probability of "below normal" (90%-95% of LPA) and "deficient" (less than 90% of LPA) rainfall stands at around 66%, significantly higher than the climatological likelihood. This elevated risk is attributed to meteorological factors, including the likely development of El Niño conditions during the monsoon season. El Niño, characterized by warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is known to weaken India’s monsoon, while La Niña, its cooling counterpart, tends to strengthen it. Currently, the equatorial Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral phase, but models suggest a strong possibility of El Niño formation. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which influences monsoon dynamics, is also in a neutral state.#maharashtra #india_meteorological_department #el_nino #vidarbha #central_india
El Nino And Its Global Weather Disruptions El Nino is a natural climate pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean, characterized by unusually warm surface waters in its central and eastern regions. This phenomenon alters typical wind patterns, air pressure, and rainfall distribution across the globe, leading to significant weather disruptions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued warnings that the southwest monsoon in India is likely to be below normal, with forecasts indicating approximately 92% of the long period average rainfall. This prediction has raised concerns among farmers, as monsoon rains are critical for crops such as rice, maize, and pulses. The IMD’s warning highlights the potential for weaker-than-normal rainfall, particularly during the early monsoon months, with the second half of the season facing greater risks if El Nino conditions intensify after July. These projections come amid global climate agencies monitoring oceanic changes that could influence rainfall patterns worldwide. The warming of Pacific waters during El Nino weakens or reverses trade winds, which typically push warm water toward Asia and Australia. This shift disrupts the balance between the ocean and atmosphere, affecting weather systems across continents. El Nino’s impact extends beyond the Pacific, influencing global weather patterns. It can cause floods in some regions while triggering droughts in others, altering temperature extremes. In South Asia, including India, El Nino often disrupts monsoon systems, which are vital for agriculture and water supply. The phenomenon also affects the formation of cyclones, hurricanes, and other storm systems, potentially altering their frequency and intensity.#karnataka #india_meteorological_department #el_nino #monsoon #world_meteorological_organization
IMD forecasts below-normal South-West Monsoon The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that the 2026 South-West monsoon in India will be below normal, with rainfall estimated at 92% of the long-period average (LPA). This forecast, announced by M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, marks a departure from earlier predictions by private weather agency Skymet, which had forecasted a 94% LPA rainfall for the season. The IMD’s projection, while confirming a below-normal trend, does not include detailed geographic or monthly breakdowns, leaving room for further analysis as the monsoon season approaches. The South-West monsoon, which accounts for 75% of India’s annual rainfall of 116 cm, is critical for agricultural productivity. Approximately 48% of the country’s cultivable land remains rain-fed, making the monsoon’s performance a key determinant for crop yields. In 2025, the monsoon had been above normal, with rainfall at 108% of the LPA, surpassing initial forecasts from the IMD. The department had predicted 105% and 106% rainfall in its first and second stage forecasts for that year, respectively. Rainfall classification by the IMD is based on deviations from the LPA: 96–104% is considered normal, 90–95% is below normal, 105–110% is above normal, and over 110% is classified as excess. Below 90% rainfall is deemed deficient, indicating a meteorological drought. Skymet, the private forecaster, has also warned of a below-normal monsoon for 2026, attributing the decline to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon. According to Skymet, rainfall is expected to be 101% of normal in June, 95% in July, 92% in August, and 89% in September.#india_meteorological_department #el_nino #skymet #m_ravichandran #south_west_monsoon
India Rain Forecast: IMD Predicts Below-Average Monsoon Rains for 2026 Amid El Niño Concerns The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a long-range forecast predicting below-average monsoon rainfall for the southwest monsoon season in 2026, which spans from June to September. The forecast, released on April 13, 2026, has raised concerns about the potential impact on agricultural productivity and economic growth. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the monsoon rainfall is expected to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is the average rainfall recorded over the past 50 years. This projection comes amid growing worries about the influence of El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which is often linked to reduced monsoon activity in South Asia. The IMD’s announcement was made during a press briefing held on April 13, 2026, where MoES Secretary M. Ravichandran emphasized the significance of the forecast. He stated that the below-normal rainfall could pose challenges for farmers, particularly in regions heavily reliant on monsoon-dependent agriculture. The forecast also highlights the broader economic implications, as agricultural output is a critical component of India’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. Reduced monsoon rains could lead to lower crop yields, affecting food security and potentially triggering inflationary pressures. The IMD’s long-range forecast is based on a combination of climatic indicators and historical data. The department has noted that the current El Niño conditions are likely to persist through the monsoon season, further exacerbating the risk of below-average rainfall.#india_meteorological_department #el_nino #ministry_of_earth_sciences #m_ravichandran #south_asia
El Niño Coming; What It Means For Summer Temps, Hurricane Season And Next Year? El Niño is expected to develop this summer and could strengthen into a super El Niño by the end of the year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency updated its forecast on Thursday, noting that warming waters in the equatorial Pacific are increasing the likelihood of El Niño forming during June, July, and August. The probability of a full El Niño event has risen to 62% for those months, with a 1-in-3 chance of a super El Niño occurring by October, November, and December. A super El Niño is defined as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific being at least 1.5°C above average for several months. This would mark the strongest El Niño since the 2023-2024 event, which was among the top five strongest warming episodes on record. El Niño occurs when the typical east-to-west winds in the equatorial Pacific weaken, allowing warmer water to accumulate in the eastern region. This phenomenon has widespread global effects, particularly on weather patterns in the United States. While El Niño does not historically significantly alter summer temperatures across the country, its timing and strength can influence hurricane activity. Stronger El Niño events increase atmospheric wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, which disrupts hurricane formation. As a result, hurricanes tend to be weaker and less frequent during the Atlantic hurricane season if El Niño is active during the summer and persists into the fall. If the El Niño event extends into the winter months, it could shift weather patterns across the U.S.#el_nino #national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #atlantic_hurricane_season #equatorial_pacific #el_nino_southern_oscillation
El Niño Outlook and Impacts for Western Washington Weather Meteorologists have issued an El Niño watch, signaling that a shifting climate pattern could lead to prolonged drought conditions in the Northwest. The Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast on Thursday, noting that the likelihood of El Niño conditions forming by fall has risen to 62%. There is also a possibility, though uncertain, that a “super El Niño” could develop. The center emphasized that while the potential strength of an El Niño remains unclear, there is a 1-in-3 chance it could be classified as strong during the October-December 2026 period. Deputy state climatologist Karin Bumbaco explained that El Niño typically brings warmer-than-average temperatures and reduced precipitation to the Pacific Northwest during fall and winter. This pattern often results in a smaller snowpack, lower spring runoff, and an increased risk of drought and wildfires in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Bumbaco highlighted the concerning implications for the region, noting that drought conditions are already present and that the current La Niña phase has not provided the desired snowpack for spring. “That’s not great news, considering we already have drought conditions,” she said. La Niña and El Niño are part of a natural cycle driven by temperature variations in the Pacific Ocean near the equatorial region of South America. Colder ocean temperatures indicate a La Niña phase, while warmer temperatures favor El Niño. These patterns influence the intensity and direction of storms affecting the U.S. West Coast during fall and winter. Bumbaco noted that El Niño tends to shift storm systems toward California, resulting in less rainfall and snowfall for Western Washington. The impact of these weather patterns extends beyond immediate precipitation.#el_nino #climate_prediction_center #pacific_northwest #karin_bumbaco #la_nina
Super El Nino is coming: What it means and why India may sweat like never before Climate scientists are warning that the planet could soon enter a powerful El Nino phase, potentially one of the strongest in recent decades. New climate forecasts suggest the event may develop later this year and significantly alter weather patterns globally, including bringing intense heat and unusual monsoon behavior to India. According to data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ocean and atmospheric signals are beginning to align by June, a key indicator that the phenomenon is developing. El Nino is a natural climate cycle characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm water toward Southeast Asia and Australia while cooler water rises near South America. During El Nino, these winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread eastward across the Pacific. This shift disrupts global atmospheric circulation, leading to rising air and heavy rainfall over the central and eastern Pacific, while regions like the Indian Ocean and parts of Africa experience sinking air that suppresses rainfall and raises temperatures. For India, El Nino events have historically been linked to hotter temperatures and weaker monsoon rainfall. The country’s summer monsoon relies on temperature differences between land and ocean. During El Nino years, altered atmospheric circulation can weaken monsoon winds that bring moisture from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. If a strong El Nino develops, it could increase the likelihood of heatwaves in northern and central India while raising concerns about rainfall deficits during the monsoon season. A powerful El Nino could also push global temperatures to record highs.#india #pacific_ocean #el_nino #monsoon #european_centre_for_medium_range_weather_forecasts
Indian monsoon may be hit by El Nino in second half; IMD on alert for super event El Nino is a natural cyclical warming of several parts of the Pacific Ocean, altering weather patterns across the globe. El Nino years are generally associated with poor monsoon in India but there are exceptions. Last Updated : 12 March 2026, 17:00 IST#india #pacific_ocean #imdad #el_nino #indian_monsoon
India sends 1,000 metric tons of rice to Malawi to support food security amid El Nino drought India has sent a humanitarian shipment of 1,000 metric tons of rice to Malawi to address food shortages caused by drought conditions linked to the El Nino climate phenomenon. The aid aims to provide immediate relief to communities in Malawi affected by severe drought and crop failures. The rice was shipped from the Nhava Sheva Port in Maharashtra and is intended to bolster food security in the African nation. The Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, shared a statement on X reiterating India’s commitment to supporting partners in the Global South. The message emphasized the strengthened cooperation between India and Malawi, highlighting the country’s dedication to advancing South-South collaboration. Jaiswal noted that the consignment is part of India’s efforts to assist Malawi in overcoming the challenges posed by the El Nino effect, which has disrupted rainfall patterns in southern Africa. El Nino, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has significantly impacted weather systems globally. This phenomenon weakens trade winds and alters global weather patterns, leading to extreme conditions in various regions. In southern Africa, El Nino has caused prolonged dry spells, reducing agricultural output and exacerbating food insecurity. The effects of El Nino are particularly pronounced in Malawi, where the country’s reliance on agriculture for both sustenance and economic stability has been severely tested. Malawi, a landlocked nation in southeastern Africa, faces critical challenges due to the drought. Maize, the country’s staple crop, has been heavily affected by the prolonged dry spells, threatening the livelihoods of millions.#india #malawi #el_nino #nhava_sheva_port #randhir_jaiswal
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: First Category 5 Storm and Key Predictions The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, with the first Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year already forming in the South Indian Ocean. Tropical Cyclone Horacio was upgraded to this classification on February 23, reaching peak winds of 160 mph. The storm is expected to weaken as it moves toward cooler waters and remains far from land, posing minimal risk to populated areas but potentially affecting marine ecosystems. Hurricane season in the Atlantic officially begins on June 1 and concludes on November 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an average season includes 14 named storms, seven hurricanes (with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher), and three major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). However, predictions for 2026 remain uncertain, as forecasters have not yet made definitive forecasts. The 2025 Atlantic season saw 13 named storms, including five hurricanes and four major hurricanes. This year’s activity could be influenced by El Niño, a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is expected to develop later in 2026. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation, particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, while boosting activity in the eastern and central Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) assigns storm names in alphabetical order, skipping letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z due to the lack of names starting with those letters. The 2026 naming list includes names like Arlene, Bret, and Claudette, with the full list continuing alphabetically. While the U.S.#el_nino #national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #western_north_carolina #tropical_cyclone_horacio #world_meteorological_organization
