WJCL's Hurricane Season Forecast: An Early Look at 2026 Hurricane season is a critical period for Coastal Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry, shaping the region’s weather patterns and posing significant risks. Over the past five Atlantic hurricane seasons, nine named storms have directly or indirectly impacted the area, including notable events like Elsa, Idalia, Debby, and the recent Hurricane Helene. While 2025 brought a relative calm with minimal tropical activity near the local coastline, other regions faced severe impacts, such as Hurricane Melissa, a record-breaking category 5 storm that devastated Jamaica in late October. As the 2026 hurricane season approaches, the WJCL 22 weather team has released an exclusive forecast, analyzing factors that could influence the season’s activity. The forecast considers sea surface temperatures, the influence of La Niña or El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, and historical patterns. According to NOAA, a La Niña event is fading in the Pacific as water temperatures warm, with models suggesting a 50-70% chance of a neutral state at the start of the season on June 1. A 50%+ chance of El Niño developing during peak hurricane season is also noted. El Niño typically suppresses tropical development, while La Niña tends to favor a more active season. However, the relationship between these phenomena and hurricane activity is not always consistent. Historical data from 1950 to the present reveals that transitions from weaker La Niña to neutral or El Niño conditions often result in tropical systems favoring the southwest Atlantic and the northern Caribbean to eastern Gulf regions. Despite this, the five analyzed seasons showed below-average activity in terms of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.#la_nia #el_nio #florida_panhandle #wjcl_22 #hurricane_season
WESH 2 Predicts 2026 Hurricane Season with Identified Hot Spots The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, and the WESH 2 First Warning Weather team has released a long-range forecast to highlight potential areas of activity. The team has developed its own seasonal outlook by analyzing various climate factors, including sea surface temperatures, atmospheric patterns, and historical data. This analysis aims to provide a clearer picture of what to expect during the upcoming season. A key element in predicting hurricane activity is the influence of El Niño and La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. These phenomena affect global weather patterns, including temperatures and wind conditions in the Atlantic Basin. As of late February 2026, NOAA reported that a La Niña event is weakening in the Pacific, with water temperatures gradually rising. Most climate models suggest a 50-70% chance of a neutral state at the start of the hurricane season on June 1. NOAA also noted a 50%+ likelihood of an El Niño developing by the peak of the season. El Niño typically suppresses tropical development, while La Niña often creates more favorable conditions for hurricane formation. However, historical data shows that not all seasons follow these trends. By examining past hurricane seasons with similar Pacific temperature patterns, the team identified five instances where consecutive weaker La Niñas transitioned to neutral or El Niño conditions. These years saw increased storm activity in the southwest Atlantic and the northern Caribbean, with a concentration of storms in the eastern Gulf region. The WESH 2 forecast method emphasizes the importance of recognizing recurring weather patterns that influence tropical development.#noaa #wesh_2 #florida_panhandle #tampa #southeast_coast
