WESH 2 Predicts 2026 Hurricane Season with Identified Hot Spots The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, and the WESH 2 First Warning Weather team has released a long-range forecast to highlight potential areas of activity. The team has developed its own seasonal outlook by analyzing various climate factors, including sea surface temperatures, atmospheric patterns, and historical data. This analysis aims to provide a clearer picture of what to expect during the upcoming season. A key element in predicting hurricane activity is the influence of El Niño and La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. These phenomena affect global weather patterns, including temperatures and wind conditions in the Atlantic Basin. As of late February 2026, NOAA reported that a La Niña event is weakening in the Pacific, with water temperatures gradually rising. Most climate models suggest a 50-70% chance of a neutral state at the start of the hurricane season on June 1. NOAA also noted a 50%+ likelihood of an El Niño developing by the peak of the season. El Niño typically suppresses tropical development, while La Niña often creates more favorable conditions for hurricane formation. However, historical data shows that not all seasons follow these trends. By examining past hurricane seasons with similar Pacific temperature patterns, the team identified five instances where consecutive weaker La Niñas transitioned to neutral or El Niño conditions. These years saw increased storm activity in the southwest Atlantic and the northern Caribbean, with a concentration of storms in the eastern Gulf region. The WESH 2 forecast method emphasizes the importance of recognizing recurring weather patterns that influence tropical development.#noaa #wesh_2 #florida_panhandle #tampa #southeast_coast
