#noaa

NOAA Predicts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-average year with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes. This outlook, announced on Thursday, highlights the expected influence of a developing El Niño climate pattern, which is anticipated to suppress tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean. The agency’s forecast aligns with an earlier prediction from Colorado State University (CSU), which also projected a reduced hurricane season due to the dominance of El Niño. NOAA’s analysis emphasizes that the developing El Niño, a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, will likely overcome the effects of above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. These temperatures, which typically fuel hurricane formation, are expected to be counteracted by the cooling influence of El Niño. The agency notes that while El Niño is projected to significantly reduce the likelihood of major storms forming in the open Atlantic, it may still allow for "homegrown" tropical systems to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and along the Southeast U.S. coast. These systems, though generally weaker and shorter-lived, could pose localized risks earlier in the season. The forecast contrasts sharply with the average Atlantic hurricane season, which typically produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA’s prediction of 8-14 named storms and 3-6 hurricanes represents a notable decline from historical norms. The agency also warned that the timing of El Niño’s formation will play a critical role in determining how much of the hurricane season is suppressed.#el_nio #colorado_state_university #noaa #atlantic_hurricane_season #fox_forecast_center

North America Set for Spectacular Aurora Borealis Display A dazzling spectacle of green, purple, and pink auroras is set to illuminate the night skies across North America on Saturday and Sunday nights, offering stargazers a rare opportunity to witness the Northern Lights. The phenomenon, caused by high-energy particles from space colliding with Earth’s atmospheric gases near the magnetic poles, will be most visible in the northern United States and much of Canada, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). While the best views will occur where the aurora is directly overhead, observers as far as 1,000 kilometers away may still catch glimpses of the light show. The aurora’s intensity will peak on Saturday night, as a geomagnetic storm driven by solar activity reaches its strongest point. NOAA predicts this will provide the optimal window for viewing the display, which is typically most visible during the late evening or early morning hours. The aurora will not be visible during daylight, making the best times to observe it just after sunset or just before sunrise. NASA explains that the aurora borealis is a result of space weather, where charged particles from the sun interact with gases in Earth’s atmosphere. These collisions excite atmospheric atoms, causing them to emit light in vibrant hues. While auroras are most commonly seen near the poles, the current event will bring the phenomenon to regions farther south, offering a unique experience for those in North America. For many, the aurora represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to witness space weather firsthand. NOAA notes that for people living outside polar regions, traveling to Arctic areas is often the only way to see the lights.#north_america #national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #noaa #aurora_borealis #solar_activity

Tornado Watch vs. Tornado Warning in Wisconsin: Understanding the Difference Wisconsin experiences tornado season primarily from April through September, though tornadoes have been recorded in every month of the year. The National Weather Service (NWS) plays a critical role in issuing alerts to help residents prepare for severe weather. A key distinction exists between a tornado watch and a tornado warning, both of which are part of the NWS’s severe weather warning system. A tornado watch is issued when atmospheric conditions are favorable for thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes in or near the designated area. These watches are typically large in scope, covering multiple counties or even states, and are issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), a division of NOAA. During a tornado watch, the NWS advises individuals to review emergency plans, ensure they have supplies like water and food, and confirm access to emergency alerts through local news or NOAA Weather Radio. The goal is to stay informed and ready to act if a warning is later issued. In contrast, a tornado warning is a more urgent alert. It is issued when a tornado has been spotted or detected by radar, indicating an immediate threat to life and property. These warnings are issued by local NWS forecast offices and usually cover smaller areas, such as a city, county, or part of a county. When a warning is in effect, residents are urged to seek shelter immediately. The NWS emphasizes that tornadoes can form quickly, so prompt action is essential to ensure safety. During a tornado watch, the NWS recommends taking proactive steps to prepare. This includes checking the location of a safe room, ensuring emergency supplies are stocked, and keeping a charged phone accessible.#national_weather_service #storm_prediction_center #noaa #milwaukee_county #office_of_emergency_management

Midnight Became Noon: The Solar Storm That Lit Up Florida In 1859, a colossal solar storm erupted, sending electrified gas hurtling toward Earth at 2 million miles per hour. The event, known as the Carrington Event, left an indelible mark on history, particularly in Florida, where residents witnessed an extraordinary phenomenon. On the day of the storm, Floridians reported seeing bright red and green auroras dancing across the sky, mistaking the spectacle for swamps on fire. Days later, astronomer Richard Carrington observed a massive white flash from the Sun at 11 a.m., marking the beginning of a cosmic upheaval. Seventeen hours later, the sky erupted so brightly at 1 a.m. that gold miners in the region awoke, believing it to be morning. The storm’s impact was immediate and dramatic. Telegraph systems across the globe surged with electricity, causing operators to be shocked unconscious. The electromagnetic pulse from the solar flare disrupted communication networks, with some telegraph lines sparking and burning paper. The event’s intensity was unprecedented, with the Sun’s magnetic field interacting violently with Earth’s, creating a cascade of effects that rippled through technology and nature. Modern scientists have since studied the Carrington Event to understand its potential consequences if it were to occur today. The storm’s energy could overwhelm satellites, disrupt power grids, and compromise GPS systems for months. NOAA’s GOES satellites now monitor the Sun 24/7, equipped with protective "sunglasses" to withstand the harsh conditions outside Earth’s magnetic shield. These satellites serve as a critical defense against future solar storms, providing early warnings and data to mitigate their impact.#florida #noaa #carrington_event #richard_carrington #goes_satellites

NOAA Deploys Mobile Radars to Enhance Storm Warnings and Save Lives Severe weather has intensified across the United States, with damaging hail, torrential rain, fierce winds, and multiple tornadoes wreaking havoc. At least two of these tornadoes reached Ef3 strength, causing significant destruction and loss of life in the Heartland region. As the severe weather season continues, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has introduced three advanced mobile radars designed to provide real-time, high-resolution data to improve storm tracking and early warnings. The new radars, mounted on heavy-duty trucks, are equipped with multiple radar systems to study severe weather phenomena such as tornadoes, wildfires, and flash floods from close proximity. These units can be rapidly deployed to areas experiencing extreme conditions, allowing scientists to collect detailed data on storm dynamics and atmospheric processes that are difficult to capture with traditional fixed radar networks. NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory Director, DaNa Carlis, Ph.D., called the initiative a "game changer for public safety," emphasizing its potential to enhance forecast accuracy and protect communities. The mobile radars are part of a broader effort to expand NOAA’s capabilities in monitoring high-impact weather events. By scanning the lowest levels of storms, where tornadoes and other threats develop, the systems provide critical insights into conditions that directly affect populated areas. This data enables scientists to track rapid changes in wind patterns and storm structure, improving understanding of storm intensity, development, and potential impacts. The deployment of these radars comes amid a surge in severe weather activity.#noaa #national_severe_storms_laboratory #dana_carlis #illinois_tornado_2026 #nebraska_wildfires_2026

Storm ready: NOAA’s new mobile radar fleet bridges gap between research and weather safety NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has unveiled three advanced mobile weather radars designed to enhance the agency’s ability to study and improve early warnings for tornadoes, severe storms, flash floods, and wildfires. These radars, mounted on heavy-duty trucks, will allow researchers to deploy high-quality observational tools directly into hazardous weather environments, providing real-time data to refine forecasts and protect public safety. The initiative marks a significant step forward in bridging the gap between research and operational weather monitoring. The new fleet includes two trucks equipped with X-band radars, which use shorter wavelengths (3 cm) to detect smaller particles like raindrops and hail, and one truck carrying a C-band radar (5 cm wavelength) optimized for measuring heavy precipitation and large particles. While X-band radars offer greater sensitivity to small-scale features, they can struggle with data quality in dense precipitation. C-band radars, though less detailed in resolution, provide more reliable measurements during intense rainfall events. This combination allows NOAA to gather comprehensive data across a range of weather conditions. The mobile radars are designed for rapid deployment to areas experiencing extreme weather, enabling scientists to position instruments closer to storms and wildfires. This proximity allows for detailed observations of atmospheric processes that are difficult to capture with fixed radar networks. For example, the radars can scan the lowest levels of storms where tornadoes form, offering unprecedented insights into wind patterns and storm organization. “This is a game changer for public safety,” said DaNa Carlis, director of NSSL.#noaa #national_severe_storms_laboratory #vorTEX_usa #da_na_carlis #kurt_hondl

Michigan Aurora Forecast: Northern Lights Expected Tonight The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts that the northern lights, or aurora borealis, may be visible over Michigan skies on Wednesday night, March 18. However, the visibility is expected to be limited due to cloudy conditions and potential snowfall, according to the National Weather Service. The SWPC’s dashboard map indicates that auroras could be seen in up to 17 states, with Michigan being one of the regions where the phenomenon is predicted to be visible across the entire state. Despite the forecast, local weather offices warn that widespread cloud cover and, in some areas, snow or freezing rain could obstruct the view. Experts recommend finding a dark, open area with clear skies for the best chance of observing the auroras. NOAA has also noted that a G2 geomagnetic storm is expected to occur on Tuesday night, which would produce a Kp index of 6. This index measures the severity of global magnetic disturbances near Earth, with a rating of 5 or higher typically indicating that the northern lights may be visible in Michigan. The auroras are caused by solar wind particles interacting with Earth’s magnetic field, creating vibrant displays of light in the night sky. These lights often appear in shades of green, pink, and red, with varying intensities depending on atmospheric conditions. NOAA’s forecast highlights that the southernmost extent of auroral visibility on March 18 will span parts of multiple states, though specific regions may vary. The colors of the auroras depend on the gases in the atmosphere and the energy levels of the particles involved.#national_weather_service #national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #noaa #space_weather_prediction_center #aurora_borealis

Severe Storms Expected in Midwest and Southeast Today A new round of severe weather is forecast to impact parts of the South, Midwest, and East through Monday, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible from Texas to the East Coast. This event marks the third severe storm outbreak of the month, affecting regions that have already experienced repeated severe weather from earlier outbreaks on March 5-8 and March 10-12. The latest storm system is occurring on the warm side of an upper Midwest blizzard, named Winter Storm Iona by The Weather Channel. While previous outbreaks featured strong tornadoes, this event is expected to emphasize damaging winds over tornado activity. Severe thunderstorms are forming as a squall line stretching from the Midwest to the South, with winds exceeding 75 mph anticipated within the line. The highest risk for damaging winds spans from Evansville, Indiana, to west of Memphis, Tennessee. Some tornadoes, including a few EF2 or greater, are also possible. Current tornado watches include: Northeastern Louisiana to southwestern Indiana until 11 p.m. CDT Central Illinois until 10 p.m. CDT Northeastern Texas to the Arkansas-Missouri border until 9 p.m. CDT Southern Missouri to southwestern Illinois until 8 p.m. CDT By Sunday night, the squall line will move eastward across the Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley, extending into the easternmost areas of the severe weather threat map. As a cold front from the Great Lakes low-pressure system advances east, damaging winds are expected to spread across much of the East, from north Florida to the Northeast, on Monday. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the mid-Atlantic states to the Carolinas as the area with the highest severe weather risk.#storm_prediction_center #midwest #weather_channel #noaa #southeast

WESH 2 Predicts 2026 Hurricane Season with Identified Hot Spots The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, and the WESH 2 First Warning Weather team has released a long-range forecast to highlight potential areas of activity. The team has developed its own seasonal outlook by analyzing various climate factors, including sea surface temperatures, atmospheric patterns, and historical data. This analysis aims to provide a clearer picture of what to expect during the upcoming season. A key element in predicting hurricane activity is the influence of El Niño and La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. These phenomena affect global weather patterns, including temperatures and wind conditions in the Atlantic Basin. As of late February 2026, NOAA reported that a La Niña event is weakening in the Pacific, with water temperatures gradually rising. Most climate models suggest a 50-70% chance of a neutral state at the start of the hurricane season on June 1. NOAA also noted a 50%+ likelihood of an El Niño developing by the peak of the season. El Niño typically suppresses tropical development, while La Niña often creates more favorable conditions for hurricane formation. However, historical data shows that not all seasons follow these trends. By examining past hurricane seasons with similar Pacific temperature patterns, the team identified five instances where consecutive weaker La Niñas transitioned to neutral or El Niño conditions. These years saw increased storm activity in the southwest Atlantic and the northern Caribbean, with a concentration of storms in the eastern Gulf region. The WESH 2 forecast method emphasizes the importance of recognizing recurring weather patterns that influence tropical development.#noaa #wesh_2 #florida_panhandle #tampa #southeast_coast