#noaa

Two Giant Warming Patterns in the Pacific Set to Transform US Weather and Ecosystems A rare but powerful combination of an immense Pacific Ocean heatwave and a "super El Niño" is set to have profound effects on US weather and marine life this autumn. Scientists warn that the interplay of these two phenomena will reshape coastal conditions, intensify extreme weather events, and disrupt ecosystems across the West Coast and beyond. The heatwave, which began in May 2025, has already raised surface temperatures in the north-east Pacific by 3-4°C (5.4-7.2°F) above average for this time of year. Meanwhile, a developing El Niño event, expected to reach its peak this autumn, is amplifying the warming trend, potentially becoming the strongest in living memory. The north-east Pacific heatwave, described by NOAA oceanographer Andrew Leising as a "bright red eyeball" spanning the ocean, is already causing widespread ecological stress. Marine life is struggling as warmer waters reduce nutrient availability and oxygen levels, forcing species to migrate or perish. In California, where the heatwave has persisted since December, coastal water levels are already 15cm (5.9in) above mean sea level. During the El Niño, this rise is projected to increase by another 15-30cm (5.9-11.8in), significantly elevating flood risks for coastal communities. Warmer ocean temperatures also enhance evaporation, fueling heavier rainfall and atmospheric rivers that could trigger inland flooding and mudslides. In the Pacific Northwest and Canada, the combined effects of El Niño and the marine heatwave are expected to reduce snowfall and exacerbate drought conditions.#pacific_ocean #oregon_state_university #noaa #andrew_leising #larry_oneill

Solar Flare Could Bring Northern Lights and Lunar Eclipse to Michigan A solar flare erupted on the sun, potentially leading to dazzling northern lights in Michigan skies on Thursday night, August 27, as a partial lunar eclipse occurs. NOAA issued a G1 geomagnetic storm watch for Thursday night, predicting a Kp index of 5, which could result in strong aurora borealis visibility. A G2 geomagnetic storm watch was also issued for Friday, August 28, due to the expected arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that left the sun on August 25. The aurora borealis may be visible in northern Michigan on Thursday night and possibly even more intense on Friday night. NOAA explained that the Kp index, which measures the severity of global magnetic disturbances near Earth, is projected to reach minor levels. The auroras are expected to be most prominent in the Upper Peninsula and observable throughout the state to the north. Under clear, dry skies, observers are advised to visit Michigan’s dark sky areas for optimal viewing of both the lunar eclipse and the auroras. The partial lunar eclipse will be visible in Michigan on Thursday night, with 96% of the moon covered by Earth’s shadow, according to Space.com. The eclipse will begin at 9:23 p.m. on August 27 and end at 3:01 a.m. on August 28, with maximum totality occurring at 12:12 a.m. on August 28. This event coincides with the auroral activity, creating a rare opportunity to witness both phenomena simultaneously. The northern lights, or aurora borealis, are caused by charged particles from the sun interacting with Earth’s atmosphere. These particles collide with gases in the atmosphere, producing vibrant displays of light in the night sky. The colors of the auroras depend on the type of gas involved and the energy levels of the collisions.#lunar_eclipse #noaa #upper_peninsula #aurora_borealis #space_com

El Fenómeno El Niño Comienza a Manifestarse: Alertan sobre su Impacto Ampliado por el Calentamiento Global El fenómeno El Niño, un patrón climático natural que se caracteriza por el calentamiento anómalo de las aguas del Pacífico ecuatorial, ha iniciado su ciclo según los últimos modelos climáticos. El Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre el Clima y la Sociedad (IRI), vinculado a la Universidad de Columbia, ha actualizado su pronóstico para el ciclo 2026/2027, señalando una posibilidad de un "súper El Niño" con temperaturas que podrían superar los 3 °C en la región Niño 3.4 entre octubre y diciembre. Esta proyección se basa en datos de 24 modelos climáticos que integran previsiones iniciadas en julio, reforzando la hipótesis de un evento más intenso que los anteriores. Según datos del Centro de Predicción Climática (CPC) de la NOAA, la región Niño 3.4 registró una anomalía absoluta de +2,1 °C en la semana que finalizó el 15 de julio, un nivel típico de episodios de El Niño "muy intensos". Este valor, aunque no suficiente para clasificar oficialmente el fenómeno como "muy intenso" (que requiere un promedio de tres meses), muestra que el océano ya alcanzó temperaturas consistentes con eventos históricos. Las anomalías relativas, que son el indicador oficial para monitorear estos fenómenos, alcanzaron 1,4 °C, acercándose al umbral de 1,5 °C para un evento "fuerte". Las aguas subsuperficiales (a 300 metros de profundidad) mostraron una "burbuja cálida" con anomalías superiores a 6 °C cerca de la superficie, lo que refleja una acumulación de calor en el océano. Los expertos destacan que el calentamiento global está intensificando los efectos de El Niño. La meteoróloga Cindy Fernández de Meteored explicó que "los últimos El Niños tienden a tener cada vez más anomalía porque el océano está cada vez más caliente".#el_nio #noaa #universidad_de_columbia #centro_de_prediccin_climtica

El Niño podría ser uno de los fenómenos más intensos de las últimas décadas: ¿qué significa para el campo colombiano? El Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (Ideam) alertó que el fenómeno de El Niño ya se encuentra presente en Colombia y podría convertirse en uno de los más intensos registrados desde 1950. Para el sector agropecuario, este escenario representa un reto significativo, ya que implica prepararse ante posibles periodos de sequía, mayor demanda de agua y afectaciones en la producción agrícola y ganadera. Según las proyecciones del Ideam, existe una probabilidad superior al 95 % de que el fenómeno se fortalezca durante el segundo semestre de 2026 y persista hasta el primer trimestre de 2027. Además, se estima que hay un 63 % de posibilidad de que El Niño alcance una intensidad «muy fuerte» entre noviembre de 2026 y enero de 2027, lo que lo ubicaría entre los eventos de mayor magnitud observados en las últimas siete décadas. Las comunidades rurales enfrentarán condiciones climáticas extremas, como temperaturas superiores a las normales y una disminución de las lluvias, especialmente en las regiones Andina, Caribe y Pacífica. Estas situaciones incrementan la evaporación del agua, reducen la humedad del suelo y elevan la demanda hídrica de los cultivos y los sistemas pecuarios. El Ideam advierte que la reducción de precipitaciones también podría disminuir los caudales de ríos y quebradas, afectar embalses y reservorios, y limitar la disponibilidad de agua para el consumo humano, el riego de cultivos y la producción ganadera. Además, el fenómeno aumenta el riesgo de incendios forestales y pérdidas en la productividad agrícola y pecuaria.#noaa #ideam #organizacion_meteorologica_mundial

G1 Geomagnetic Storm Could Bring Auroras to Northern U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm watch for the period June 29–30, with a slight possibility of the storm briefly reaching G2 (moderate) levels if a coronal mass ejection (CME) interacts favorably with Earth’s magnetic field. Forecasters predict the storm’s peak Ap values will reach 25 on June 30 before declining to 12 by July 1. Real-time Kp index readings, which measure geomagnetic activity, remained low at 1.00 as of early June 29, leaving the timing and intensity of the storm uncertain. Auroras, or the northern lights, could become visible in northern U.S. states near the Canadian border, including Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine. Stronger geomagnetic activity might extend visibility further south, potentially reaching Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Optimal viewing conditions are expected between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time from dark locations with clear northern horizons. However, the bright Strawberry Moon may wash out fainter auroral displays, reducing visibility in some areas. The aurora forecast stems from a solar eruption on June 26, during which a CME was launched, carrying billions of tons of magnetized plasma toward Earth. When this CME collides with Earth’s magnetosphere, it can trigger geomagnetic storms that expand the auroral oval southward. The storm’s intensity depends heavily on the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field.#national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #noaa #space_weather_prediction_center #coronal_mass_ejection #ovation_aurora_model

Northern Lights May Be Visible in 19 U.S. States Tonight, Including Vermont Tonight, the northern lights could be visible in 19 U.S. states, including Vermont, as a geomagnetic storm creates conditions for the aurora borealis. The Space Weather Prediction Center has classified the storm as a G1, indicating minor intensity, with the potential for auroras to appear at high latitudes. This includes regions such as northern Michigan, Maine, and the northern tier of the country. The storm’s impact is expected to vary by location. According to NOAA, the northern lights may be visible over many northern states, with the best chances in Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine. However, states like Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire could also see the phenomenon, though visibility may be less certain. A G1 storm typically allows for auroras to reach as far south as New York and Idaho, while stronger storms, such as G2 or G3, could extend the display to Illinois and Oregon. The optimal time to observe the northern lights is between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., as per NOAA guidelines. Clear skies are anticipated tonight, according to the National Weather Service, which could enhance viewing conditions if the aurora reaches Vermont. The Strawberry Moon, which will shine tonight, may also contribute to the celestial spectacle, though its brightness could affect the visibility of the aurora. To maximize the chances of seeing the northern lights, experts recommend finding dark skies away from urban areas. Tim Brothers, a technical instructor and observatory manager at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, advises locating an open field or hilltop for stargazing.#national_weather_service #noaa #space_weather_prediction_center #strawberry_moon #massachusetts_institute_of_technology

NOAA Declares El Niño Event, Warns of Potential for Strong Winter Impact in Northern California NOAA scientists have officially confirmed that an El Niño event is underway in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with forecasts indicating the possibility of it becoming one of the strongest on record this winter. The agency suggests that the event could reach "very strong" intensity by the fall or early winter, though it emphasizes that outcomes remain uncertain. While a strong El Niño typically increases the likelihood of a wetter winter for California, it does not guarantee such conditions, as historical data shows mixed results. El Niño is a recurring climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which disrupts typical atmospheric circulation. This shift weakens tropical trade winds and alters the formation of thunderstorms, influencing weather patterns across North America. For Northern California, the effects are most pronounced during late fall and winter. NOAA classifies El Niño events based on temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, with "very strong" events defined as anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Current conditions suggest the event is already "weak," with temperatures averaging 0.7 degrees above normal, but models predict it could strengthen significantly over the next several months. Historical records provide insight into how strong El Niño events have impacted Northern California. The most intense event since 1950 occurred during the 1982-1983 water year, followed by the 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 events. These periods saw record rainfall in many areas, with cities like Sacramento, Stockton, and Modesto experiencing rainfall nearly double their averages.#el_nio #noaa #northern_california #nio_3_4 #arctic_oscillation

NOAA Predicts Strong El Niño Could Intensify into 'Super' Event with Global Weather Impacts The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that El Niño has officially begun and is expected to strengthen into a very strong or "Super" El Niño event, which could trigger significant shifts in global weather patterns and further elevate global temperatures. According to a report released Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has assigned a 63% probability that this El Niño will develop into one of the largest on record since 1950. The agency also forecasts a 100% chance of the phenomenon persisting through the fall and extremely high odds of it continuing into the winter. El Niño is a recurring climate pattern characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, driven by shifts in wind patterns. These changes disrupt atmospheric circulation, leading to widespread weather anomalies. The current event is marked by unusually hot water masses moving from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific, traveling deep beneath the surface before rising toward the surface near South America. This dynamic mirrors past intense El Niño episodes, such as those in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. To qualify as a "Super" El Niño, the tropical Pacific must exceed 2 degrees Celsius above average temperatures. Computer models suggest this threshold will be surpassed, though the exact magnitude remains uncertain. The phenomenon’s strength is amplified by the fact that it occurs amid a backdrop of already elevated global temperatures due to human-induced climate change. This combination could intensify the effects of El Niño, potentially leading to more extreme weather events.#el_nio #climate_prediction_center #noaa #tropical_pacific #global_weather_patterns

NOAA Predicts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-average year with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes. This outlook, announced on Thursday, highlights the expected influence of a developing El Niño climate pattern, which is anticipated to suppress tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean. The agency’s forecast aligns with an earlier prediction from Colorado State University (CSU), which also projected a reduced hurricane season due to the dominance of El Niño. NOAA’s analysis emphasizes that the developing El Niño, a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, will likely overcome the effects of above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. These temperatures, which typically fuel hurricane formation, are expected to be counteracted by the cooling influence of El Niño. The agency notes that while El Niño is projected to significantly reduce the likelihood of major storms forming in the open Atlantic, it may still allow for "homegrown" tropical systems to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and along the Southeast U.S. coast. These systems, though generally weaker and shorter-lived, could pose localized risks earlier in the season. The forecast contrasts sharply with the average Atlantic hurricane season, which typically produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA’s prediction of 8-14 named storms and 3-6 hurricanes represents a notable decline from historical norms. The agency also warned that the timing of El Niño’s formation will play a critical role in determining how much of the hurricane season is suppressed.#el_nio #colorado_state_university #noaa #atlantic_hurricane_season #fox_forecast_center

North America Set for Spectacular Aurora Borealis Display A dazzling spectacle of green, purple, and pink auroras is set to illuminate the night skies across North America on Saturday and Sunday nights, offering stargazers a rare opportunity to witness the Northern Lights. The phenomenon, caused by high-energy particles from space colliding with Earth’s atmospheric gases near the magnetic poles, will be most visible in the northern United States and much of Canada, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). While the best views will occur where the aurora is directly overhead, observers as far as 1,000 kilometers away may still catch glimpses of the light show. The aurora’s intensity will peak on Saturday night, as a geomagnetic storm driven by solar activity reaches its strongest point. NOAA predicts this will provide the optimal window for viewing the display, which is typically most visible during the late evening or early morning hours. The aurora will not be visible during daylight, making the best times to observe it just after sunset or just before sunrise. NASA explains that the aurora borealis is a result of space weather, where charged particles from the sun interact with gases in Earth’s atmosphere. These collisions excite atmospheric atoms, causing them to emit light in vibrant hues. While auroras are most commonly seen near the poles, the current event will bring the phenomenon to regions farther south, offering a unique experience for those in North America. For many, the aurora represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to witness space weather firsthand. NOAA notes that for people living outside polar regions, traveling to Arctic areas is often the only way to see the lights.#north_america #national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #noaa #aurora_borealis #solar_activity

Tornado Watch vs. Tornado Warning in Wisconsin: Understanding the Difference Wisconsin experiences tornado season primarily from April through September, though tornadoes have been recorded in every month of the year. The National Weather Service (NWS) plays a critical role in issuing alerts to help residents prepare for severe weather. A key distinction exists between a tornado watch and a tornado warning, both of which are part of the NWS’s severe weather warning system. A tornado watch is issued when atmospheric conditions are favorable for thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes in or near the designated area. These watches are typically large in scope, covering multiple counties or even states, and are issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), a division of NOAA. During a tornado watch, the NWS advises individuals to review emergency plans, ensure they have supplies like water and food, and confirm access to emergency alerts through local news or NOAA Weather Radio. The goal is to stay informed and ready to act if a warning is later issued. In contrast, a tornado warning is a more urgent alert. It is issued when a tornado has been spotted or detected by radar, indicating an immediate threat to life and property. These warnings are issued by local NWS forecast offices and usually cover smaller areas, such as a city, county, or part of a county. When a warning is in effect, residents are urged to seek shelter immediately. The NWS emphasizes that tornadoes can form quickly, so prompt action is essential to ensure safety. During a tornado watch, the NWS recommends taking proactive steps to prepare. This includes checking the location of a safe room, ensuring emergency supplies are stocked, and keeping a charged phone accessible.#national_weather_service #storm_prediction_center #noaa #milwaukee_county #office_of_emergency_management

Midnight Became Noon: The Solar Storm That Lit Up Florida In 1859, a colossal solar storm erupted, sending electrified gas hurtling toward Earth at 2 million miles per hour. The event, known as the Carrington Event, left an indelible mark on history, particularly in Florida, where residents witnessed an extraordinary phenomenon. On the day of the storm, Floridians reported seeing bright red and green auroras dancing across the sky, mistaking the spectacle for swamps on fire. Days later, astronomer Richard Carrington observed a massive white flash from the Sun at 11 a.m., marking the beginning of a cosmic upheaval. Seventeen hours later, the sky erupted so brightly at 1 a.m. that gold miners in the region awoke, believing it to be morning. The storm’s impact was immediate and dramatic. Telegraph systems across the globe surged with electricity, causing operators to be shocked unconscious. The electromagnetic pulse from the solar flare disrupted communication networks, with some telegraph lines sparking and burning paper. The event’s intensity was unprecedented, with the Sun’s magnetic field interacting violently with Earth’s, creating a cascade of effects that rippled through technology and nature. Modern scientists have since studied the Carrington Event to understand its potential consequences if it were to occur today. The storm’s energy could overwhelm satellites, disrupt power grids, and compromise GPS systems for months. NOAA’s GOES satellites now monitor the Sun 24/7, equipped with protective "sunglasses" to withstand the harsh conditions outside Earth’s magnetic shield. These satellites serve as a critical defense against future solar storms, providing early warnings and data to mitigate their impact.#florida #noaa #carrington_event #richard_carrington #goes_satellites

NOAA Deploys Mobile Radars to Enhance Storm Warnings and Save Lives Severe weather has intensified across the United States, with damaging hail, torrential rain, fierce winds, and multiple tornadoes wreaking havoc. At least two of these tornadoes reached Ef3 strength, causing significant destruction and loss of life in the Heartland region. As the severe weather season continues, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has introduced three advanced mobile radars designed to provide real-time, high-resolution data to improve storm tracking and early warnings. The new radars, mounted on heavy-duty trucks, are equipped with multiple radar systems to study severe weather phenomena such as tornadoes, wildfires, and flash floods from close proximity. These units can be rapidly deployed to areas experiencing extreme conditions, allowing scientists to collect detailed data on storm dynamics and atmospheric processes that are difficult to capture with traditional fixed radar networks. NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory Director, DaNa Carlis, Ph.D., called the initiative a "game changer for public safety," emphasizing its potential to enhance forecast accuracy and protect communities. The mobile radars are part of a broader effort to expand NOAA’s capabilities in monitoring high-impact weather events. By scanning the lowest levels of storms, where tornadoes and other threats develop, the systems provide critical insights into conditions that directly affect populated areas. This data enables scientists to track rapid changes in wind patterns and storm structure, improving understanding of storm intensity, development, and potential impacts. The deployment of these radars comes amid a surge in severe weather activity.#noaa #national_severe_storms_laboratory #dana_carlis #illinois_tornado_2026 #nebraska_wildfires_2026

Storm ready: NOAA’s new mobile radar fleet bridges gap between research and weather safety NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has unveiled three advanced mobile weather radars designed to enhance the agency’s ability to study and improve early warnings for tornadoes, severe storms, flash floods, and wildfires. These radars, mounted on heavy-duty trucks, will allow researchers to deploy high-quality observational tools directly into hazardous weather environments, providing real-time data to refine forecasts and protect public safety. The initiative marks a significant step forward in bridging the gap between research and operational weather monitoring. The new fleet includes two trucks equipped with X-band radars, which use shorter wavelengths (3 cm) to detect smaller particles like raindrops and hail, and one truck carrying a C-band radar (5 cm wavelength) optimized for measuring heavy precipitation and large particles. While X-band radars offer greater sensitivity to small-scale features, they can struggle with data quality in dense precipitation. C-band radars, though less detailed in resolution, provide more reliable measurements during intense rainfall events. This combination allows NOAA to gather comprehensive data across a range of weather conditions. The mobile radars are designed for rapid deployment to areas experiencing extreme weather, enabling scientists to position instruments closer to storms and wildfires. This proximity allows for detailed observations of atmospheric processes that are difficult to capture with fixed radar networks. For example, the radars can scan the lowest levels of storms where tornadoes form, offering unprecedented insights into wind patterns and storm organization. “This is a game changer for public safety,” said DaNa Carlis, director of NSSL.#noaa #national_severe_storms_laboratory #vorTEX_usa #da_na_carlis #kurt_hondl

Michigan Aurora Forecast: Northern Lights Expected Tonight The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts that the northern lights, or aurora borealis, may be visible over Michigan skies on Wednesday night, March 18. However, the visibility is expected to be limited due to cloudy conditions and potential snowfall, according to the National Weather Service. The SWPC’s dashboard map indicates that auroras could be seen in up to 17 states, with Michigan being one of the regions where the phenomenon is predicted to be visible across the entire state. Despite the forecast, local weather offices warn that widespread cloud cover and, in some areas, snow or freezing rain could obstruct the view. Experts recommend finding a dark, open area with clear skies for the best chance of observing the auroras. NOAA has also noted that a G2 geomagnetic storm is expected to occur on Tuesday night, which would produce a Kp index of 6. This index measures the severity of global magnetic disturbances near Earth, with a rating of 5 or higher typically indicating that the northern lights may be visible in Michigan. The auroras are caused by solar wind particles interacting with Earth’s magnetic field, creating vibrant displays of light in the night sky. These lights often appear in shades of green, pink, and red, with varying intensities depending on atmospheric conditions. NOAA’s forecast highlights that the southernmost extent of auroral visibility on March 18 will span parts of multiple states, though specific regions may vary. The colors of the auroras depend on the gases in the atmosphere and the energy levels of the particles involved.#national_weather_service #national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #noaa #space_weather_prediction_center #aurora_borealis

Severe Storms Expected in Midwest and Southeast Today A new round of severe weather is forecast to impact parts of the South, Midwest, and East through Monday, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible from Texas to the East Coast. This event marks the third severe storm outbreak of the month, affecting regions that have already experienced repeated severe weather from earlier outbreaks on March 5-8 and March 10-12. The latest storm system is occurring on the warm side of an upper Midwest blizzard, named Winter Storm Iona by The Weather Channel. While previous outbreaks featured strong tornadoes, this event is expected to emphasize damaging winds over tornado activity. Severe thunderstorms are forming as a squall line stretching from the Midwest to the South, with winds exceeding 75 mph anticipated within the line. The highest risk for damaging winds spans from Evansville, Indiana, to west of Memphis, Tennessee. Some tornadoes, including a few EF2 or greater, are also possible. Current tornado watches include: Northeastern Louisiana to southwestern Indiana until 11 p.m. CDT Central Illinois until 10 p.m. CDT Northeastern Texas to the Arkansas-Missouri border until 9 p.m. CDT Southern Missouri to southwestern Illinois until 8 p.m. CDT By Sunday night, the squall line will move eastward across the Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley, extending into the easternmost areas of the severe weather threat map. As a cold front from the Great Lakes low-pressure system advances east, damaging winds are expected to spread across much of the East, from north Florida to the Northeast, on Monday. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the mid-Atlantic states to the Carolinas as the area with the highest severe weather risk.#storm_prediction_center #midwest #weather_channel #noaa #southeast

WESH 2 Predicts 2026 Hurricane Season with Identified Hot Spots The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, and the WESH 2 First Warning Weather team has released a long-range forecast to highlight potential areas of activity. The team has developed its own seasonal outlook by analyzing various climate factors, including sea surface temperatures, atmospheric patterns, and historical data. This analysis aims to provide a clearer picture of what to expect during the upcoming season. A key element in predicting hurricane activity is the influence of El Niño and La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. These phenomena affect global weather patterns, including temperatures and wind conditions in the Atlantic Basin. As of late February 2026, NOAA reported that a La Niña event is weakening in the Pacific, with water temperatures gradually rising. Most climate models suggest a 50-70% chance of a neutral state at the start of the hurricane season on June 1. NOAA also noted a 50%+ likelihood of an El Niño developing by the peak of the season. El Niño typically suppresses tropical development, while La Niña often creates more favorable conditions for hurricane formation. However, historical data shows that not all seasons follow these trends. By examining past hurricane seasons with similar Pacific temperature patterns, the team identified five instances where consecutive weaker La Niñas transitioned to neutral or El Niño conditions. These years saw increased storm activity in the southwest Atlantic and the northern Caribbean, with a concentration of storms in the eastern Gulf region. The WESH 2 forecast method emphasizes the importance of recognizing recurring weather patterns that influence tropical development.#noaa #wesh_2 #florida_panhandle #tampa #southeast_coast