NOAA Predicts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-average year with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes. This outlook, announced on Thursday, highlights the expected influence of a developing El Niño climate pattern, which is anticipated to suppress tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean. The agency’s forecast aligns with an earlier prediction from Colorado State University (CSU), which also projected a reduced hurricane season due to the dominance of El Niño. NOAA’s analysis emphasizes that the developing El Niño, a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, will likely overcome the effects of above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. These temperatures, which typically fuel hurricane formation, are expected to be counteracted by the cooling influence of El Niño. The agency notes that while El Niño is projected to significantly reduce the likelihood of major storms forming in the open Atlantic, it may still allow for "homegrown" tropical systems to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and along the Southeast U.S. coast. These systems, though generally weaker and shorter-lived, could pose localized risks earlier in the season. The forecast contrasts sharply with the average Atlantic hurricane season, which typically produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA’s prediction of 8-14 named storms and 3-6 hurricanes represents a notable decline from historical norms. The agency also warned that the timing of El Niño’s formation will play a critical role in determining how much of the hurricane season is suppressed.#el_nio #colorado_state_university #noaa #atlantic_hurricane_season #fox_forecast_center
Tornado threats are escalating for millions across the South as severe storms intensify, marking the start of the spring severe weather season. Forecasters have raised the severe storm risk to Level 3 out of 5 for a narrow region in western Oklahoma and parts of northern Texas, where storms could generate EF-2 or stronger tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has also highlighted Friday as the day with the highest risk of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. A multi-day severe weather threat is affecting Texas, the Plains, and the Midwest as thunderstorms develop across the central U.S. The SPC has identified Friday as the peak day for severe conditions, with the dryline—a boundary between dry air from the Rockies and humid air from the Gulf—playing a key role. This dryline is expected to shift eastward, increasing the risk of intense storms. Lower-level winds, reaching 5,000 feet above the surface, are forecast to strengthen near Kansas City and toward Oklahoma City and Dallas, creating favorable conditions for supercells and heightened tornado threats. Hail and lightning have already impacted areas like Barnhart, Missouri, and Crowley, Texas, with severe weather continuing through the week. The FOX Forecast Center warns of a significant tornado threat, with storms potentially reaching EF-2 strength or stronger. The SPC’s new Conditional Intensity (CIG) tools are helping forecasters identify high-intensity threats even when storm coverage is scattered. Severe weather is expected to persist through Saturday morning, affecting much of the Central and Southern Plains and the Mississippi Valley. While tornadoes remain the primary concern, large hail—exceeding 3 inches in diameter—will also pose a major risk, particularly on the northern side of the storm system.#storm_prediction_center #severe_weather #fox_forecast_center #tornado_threat #dryline
