NOAA Predicts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-average year with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes. This outlook, announced on Thursday, highlights the expected influence of a developing El Niño climate pattern, which is anticipated to suppress tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean. The agency’s forecast aligns with an earlier prediction from Colorado State University (CSU), which also projected a reduced hurricane season due to the dominance of El Niño. NOAA’s analysis emphasizes that the developing El Niño, a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, will likely overcome the effects of above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. These temperatures, which typically fuel hurricane formation, are expected to be counteracted by the cooling influence of El Niño. The agency notes that while El Niño is projected to significantly reduce the likelihood of major storms forming in the open Atlantic, it may still allow for "homegrown" tropical systems to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and along the Southeast U.S. coast. These systems, though generally weaker and shorter-lived, could pose localized risks earlier in the season. The forecast contrasts sharply with the average Atlantic hurricane season, which typically produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA’s prediction of 8-14 named storms and 3-6 hurricanes represents a notable decline from historical norms. The agency also warned that the timing of El Niño’s formation will play a critical role in determining how much of the hurricane season is suppressed.#el_nio #colorado_state_university #noaa #atlantic_hurricane_season #fox_forecast_center
El Niño Coming; What It Means For Summer Temps, Hurricane Season And Next Year? El Niño is expected to develop this summer and could strengthen into a super El Niño by the end of the year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency updated its forecast on Thursday, noting that warming waters in the equatorial Pacific are increasing the likelihood of El Niño forming during June, July, and August. The probability of a full El Niño event has risen to 62% for those months, with a 1-in-3 chance of a super El Niño occurring by October, November, and December. A super El Niño is defined as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific being at least 1.5°C above average for several months. This would mark the strongest El Niño since the 2023-2024 event, which was among the top five strongest warming episodes on record. El Niño occurs when the typical east-to-west winds in the equatorial Pacific weaken, allowing warmer water to accumulate in the eastern region. This phenomenon has widespread global effects, particularly on weather patterns in the United States. While El Niño does not historically significantly alter summer temperatures across the country, its timing and strength can influence hurricane activity. Stronger El Niño events increase atmospheric wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, which disrupts hurricane formation. As a result, hurricanes tend to be weaker and less frequent during the Atlantic hurricane season if El Niño is active during the summer and persists into the fall. If the El Niño event extends into the winter months, it could shift weather patterns across the U.S.#el_nino #national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #atlantic_hurricane_season #equatorial_pacific #el_nino_southern_oscillation
