Tropics Warming Up as Atlantic Season Enters Busier Phase BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, marking the beginning of a period when meteorologists intensify their monitoring of tropical systems. While the Gulf Coast and Texas remain largely unaffected by immediate threats, two tropical waves are now being tracked across the Atlantic basin. These systems, though not yet organized, could develop into more significant weather events as they move westward. The first system, a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is expected to drift westward through the central tropical Atlantic over the next week. The National Hurricane Center has assigned a 20% probability of development for this system within the next seven days. However, as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later in the week, upper-level winds are projected to weaken, reducing the likelihood of significant growth. This system’s trajectory and potential evolution will be closely observed, though no immediate threat to the Gulf Coast is anticipated. A second tropical wave is also under scrutiny, with a slightly higher chance of development. This system is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday and travel westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week. The National Hurricane Center has given this wave a 30% chance of organizing into a more defined system over the same seven-day period. While the conditions for development are marginally better than the first wave, the system remains far from any populated areas or major coastal regions. Meteorologists emphasize that these tropical waves are part of the seasonal "warm-up lap" for the Atlantic hurricane season.#el_nino #atlantic_hurricane_season #national_hurricane_center #caboverde_islands #lesser_antilles
Houston Faces Increased Rain Chances Amid Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season The Houston area is experiencing ongoing daily rain chances, with meteorologists noting that while the weekend will bring a slight rise in precipitation likelihood, a full washout is not expected. The highest probability of rain appears to shift toward early next week, though overall conditions remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, the Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, with no significant tropical activity reported as of now. The primary reason for the calm in the tropics is the presence of Saharan dust, which is being carried across the Atlantic by wind currents. This dust, visible as bright streaks in satellite imagery, has created a barrier that suppresses storm development. Additionally, sinking air masses and other atmospheric conditions are contributing to the lack of activity. Experts predict that the Atlantic tropics will remain quiet for at least the next week, with only a low-end threat of a storm forming near the Carolinas or in the open Atlantic. Texas, including Houston, is not expected to face significant hurricane risks in the near future. Historically, the Atlantic hurricane season typically gains momentum later in the summer, but current activity levels are only about 10% of historical averages for this time of year. This trend has led to optimism among weather analysts, though they caution that the season is still in its early stages. Colorado State University’s hurricane forecasting team recently updated their seasonal outlook, lowering their projected number of named storms from 13 in April to 11 in June, and now to 9.#houston #colorado_state_university #national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #atlantic_hurricane_season #saharan_dust
NOAA Predicts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-average year with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes. This outlook, announced on Thursday, highlights the expected influence of a developing El Niño climate pattern, which is anticipated to suppress tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean. The agency’s forecast aligns with an earlier prediction from Colorado State University (CSU), which also projected a reduced hurricane season due to the dominance of El Niño. NOAA’s analysis emphasizes that the developing El Niño, a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, will likely overcome the effects of above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. These temperatures, which typically fuel hurricane formation, are expected to be counteracted by the cooling influence of El Niño. The agency notes that while El Niño is projected to significantly reduce the likelihood of major storms forming in the open Atlantic, it may still allow for "homegrown" tropical systems to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and along the Southeast U.S. coast. These systems, though generally weaker and shorter-lived, could pose localized risks earlier in the season. The forecast contrasts sharply with the average Atlantic hurricane season, which typically produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA’s prediction of 8-14 named storms and 3-6 hurricanes represents a notable decline from historical norms. The agency also warned that the timing of El Niño’s formation will play a critical role in determining how much of the hurricane season is suppressed.#el_nio #colorado_state_university #noaa #atlantic_hurricane_season #fox_forecast_center
El Niño Coming; What It Means For Summer Temps, Hurricane Season And Next Year? El Niño is expected to develop this summer and could strengthen into a super El Niño by the end of the year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency updated its forecast on Thursday, noting that warming waters in the equatorial Pacific are increasing the likelihood of El Niño forming during June, July, and August. The probability of a full El Niño event has risen to 62% for those months, with a 1-in-3 chance of a super El Niño occurring by October, November, and December. A super El Niño is defined as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific being at least 1.5°C above average for several months. This would mark the strongest El Niño since the 2023-2024 event, which was among the top five strongest warming episodes on record. El Niño occurs when the typical east-to-west winds in the equatorial Pacific weaken, allowing warmer water to accumulate in the eastern region. This phenomenon has widespread global effects, particularly on weather patterns in the United States. While El Niño does not historically significantly alter summer temperatures across the country, its timing and strength can influence hurricane activity. Stronger El Niño events increase atmospheric wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, which disrupts hurricane formation. As a result, hurricanes tend to be weaker and less frequent during the Atlantic hurricane season if El Niño is active during the summer and persists into the fall. If the El Niño event extends into the winter months, it could shift weather patterns across the U.S.#el_nino #national_oceanic_and_atmospheric_administration #atlantic_hurricane_season #equatorial_pacific #el_nino_southern_oscillation
