IMD forecasts below-normal South-West Monsoon The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that the 2026 South-West monsoon in India will be below normal, with rainfall estimated at 92% of the long-period average (LPA). This forecast, announced by M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, marks a departure from earlier predictions by private weather agency Skymet, which had forecasted a 94% LPA rainfall for the season. The IMD’s projection, while confirming a below-normal trend, does not include detailed geographic or monthly breakdowns, leaving room for further analysis as the monsoon season approaches. The South-West monsoon, which accounts for 75% of India’s annual rainfall of 116 cm, is critical for agricultural productivity. Approximately 48% of the country’s cultivable land remains rain-fed, making the monsoon’s performance a key determinant for crop yields. In 2025, the monsoon had been above normal, with rainfall at 108% of the LPA, surpassing initial forecasts from the IMD. The department had predicted 105% and 106% rainfall in its first and second stage forecasts for that year, respectively. Rainfall classification by the IMD is based on deviations from the LPA: 96–104% is considered normal, 90–95% is below normal, 105–110% is above normal, and over 110% is classified as excess. Below 90% rainfall is deemed deficient, indicating a meteorological drought. Skymet, the private forecaster, has also warned of a below-normal monsoon for 2026, attributing the decline to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon. According to Skymet, rainfall is expected to be 101% of normal in June, 95% in July, 92% in August, and 89% in September.#india_meteorological_department #el_nino #skymet #m_ravichandran #south_west_monsoon
