IMD forecasts below-normal South-West Monsoon The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that the 2026 South-West monsoon in India will be below normal, with rainfall estimated at 92% of the long-period average (LPA). This forecast, announced by M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, marks a departure from earlier predictions by private weather agency Skymet, which had forecasted a 94% LPA rainfall for the season. The IMD’s projection, while confirming a below-normal trend, does not include detailed geographic or monthly breakdowns, leaving room for further analysis as the monsoon season approaches. The South-West monsoon, which accounts for 75% of India’s annual rainfall of 116 cm, is critical for agricultural productivity. Approximately 48% of the country’s cultivable land remains rain-fed, making the monsoon’s performance a key determinant for crop yields. In 2025, the monsoon had been above normal, with rainfall at 108% of the LPA, surpassing initial forecasts from the IMD. The department had predicted 105% and 106% rainfall in its first and second stage forecasts for that year, respectively. Rainfall classification by the IMD is based on deviations from the LPA: 96–104% is considered normal, 90–95% is below normal, 105–110% is above normal, and over 110% is classified as excess. Below 90% rainfall is deemed deficient, indicating a meteorological drought. Skymet, the private forecaster, has also warned of a below-normal monsoon for 2026, attributing the decline to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon. According to Skymet, rainfall is expected to be 101% of normal in June, 95% in July, 92% in August, and 89% in September.#india_meteorological_department #el_nino #skymet #m_ravichandran #south_west_monsoon
India Rain Forecast: IMD Predicts Below-Average Monsoon Rains for 2026 Amid El Niño Concerns The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a long-range forecast predicting below-average monsoon rainfall for the southwest monsoon season in 2026, which spans from June to September. The forecast, released on April 13, 2026, has raised concerns about the potential impact on agricultural productivity and economic growth. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the monsoon rainfall is expected to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is the average rainfall recorded over the past 50 years. This projection comes amid growing worries about the influence of El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which is often linked to reduced monsoon activity in South Asia. The IMD’s announcement was made during a press briefing held on April 13, 2026, where MoES Secretary M. Ravichandran emphasized the significance of the forecast. He stated that the below-normal rainfall could pose challenges for farmers, particularly in regions heavily reliant on monsoon-dependent agriculture. The forecast also highlights the broader economic implications, as agricultural output is a critical component of India’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. Reduced monsoon rains could lead to lower crop yields, affecting food security and potentially triggering inflationary pressures. The IMD’s long-range forecast is based on a combination of climatic indicators and historical data. The department has noted that the current El Niño conditions are likely to persist through the monsoon season, further exacerbating the risk of below-average rainfall.#india_meteorological_department #el_nino #ministry_of_earth_sciences #m_ravichandran #south_asia
