Big Short Legend Steve Eisman Says Iran War Is Running The Entire Stock Market Right Now Steve Eisman, the portfolio manager made famous by The Big Short, has shifted his stance on the impact of the Iran war on global markets, calling the conflict a “unipolar market” in a recent episode of his podcast The Real Eisman Playbook. This marks a significant departure from his earlier optimism, as he previously told CNBC in early March that the war would be “very, very positive” and that he wouldn’t alter his investment positions. However, the rapid escalation of tensions and the surge in oil prices have since altered his perspective. Brent crude, a key benchmark for global oil, has surged to nearly $113 per barrel, marking a 55% increase in March—the largest monthly gain in the contract’s history. This surpasses the 46% spike recorded during the first Gulf War in September 1990. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, which tracks energy stocks, is the only S&P 500 sector showing positive performance this month, while the United States Oil Fund has mirrored the historic rise in crude prices. Eisman’s comments highlight how the conflict has become a dominant force in shaping market dynamics, with energy prices serving as a barometer for geopolitical risk. Prediction markets have also reflected the uncertainty surrounding the conflict. On Polymarket, bettors are giving 71% odds that U.S. forces will enter Iran by April 30, signaling a likely escalation in hostilities. Conversely, a separate contract on regime change in Iran before 2027 sits at just 34%, indicating that traders are pricing in a prolonged conflict rather than a swift resolution.#iran_war #polymarket #steve_eisman #the_big_short #council_on_foreign_relations
