Why Kazakhstan Is Moving Ahead in GDP Per Capita Kazakhstan’s projected GDP per capita growth has positioned it as a rising economic power, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting the country to reach roughly $23,170 in nominal GDP per capita by 2031. On the same current-dollar measure, Kazakhstan is expected to surpass China around 2026 and Russia by 2031. While these figures mark a significant milestone, they are not a comprehensive measure of household welfare or purchasing power. Nonetheless, they signal Kazakhstan’s entry into a higher income band, reflecting a decades-long transformation from post-Soviet economic disruption to a more structured growth model. The country’s current trajectory is the result of a three-decade progression of state capacity, resource development, and institutional learning. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Kazakhstan inherited a broken administrative-command system, with broken production chains, institutional rupture, and inflation. The task of building a market economy from this foundation began in earnest. In 1991, GDP per capita stood near $1,400 in U.S. dollars, but by 2024, it had exceeded $14,000. Hydrocarbons provided the base for this growth, but political institutions and leadership played a critical role in ensuring the stability of this economic foundation. The path to this growth was not without challenges. The 1990s saw initial collapse and stabilization efforts, while the 2000s brought a surge in hydrocarbon production, foreign direct investment, and a rise in nominal GDP per capita. By 2008, the figure had climbed from a little over $1,000 to more than $8,000. The global financial crisis of 2008 interrupted this upward trend but did not derail the broader model.#united_nations #kazakhstan #international_monetary_fund #world_bank #caspian_pipeline_consortium
Electric Vehicles Reach Critical Inflection Point in Europe and China A global study published in Nature Communications by researchers from the University of Exeter, University of Macau, and the World Bank reveals that electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe and China have crossed a critical threshold, making a return to conventional fuel-based transportation increasingly difficult. While internal combustion engines (ICEs) are unlikely to disappear entirely in the near future, the shift toward electrification in these regions has entered a phase where market dynamics and industrial investments are driving irreversible change. The study analyzed sales data from 32 countries between 2016 and 2023, highlighting that EV adoption in Europe and China has reached a "positive critical point." This transition is not solely driven by declining fuel costs but also by the scale of industrial investment in electric platforms, batteries, software, and manufacturing infrastructure. As automakers pour billions into these areas, the economic viability of reverting to traditional ICE production models has become increasingly unattractive. Global EV and hybrid vehicle fleets have been doubling every 1.5 years on average, with Europe and China leading the charge. In the European Union, sales of EVs have doubled every 1.3 years, while China’s market has seen a doubling every year. The United States lags behind, with no clear evidence of a dominant EV transition yet. Meanwhile, the decline in ICE sales has persisted even after the post-pandemic economic rebound, signaling a systemic shift rather than a temporary trend. Recent data from 2026 reinforces this trend. In the first quarter of that year, battery-electric vehicles accounted for 19.4% of the EU market, up from 15.2% in 2025. The combined share of ICE vehicles dropped to 30.#china #world_bank #university_of_macau #university_of_exeter #eu_union
From scale to depth: Dismantling frictions within India’s financial inclusion juggernaut India’s financial inclusion journey has transitioned from expanding access to addressing deeper structural challenges that hinder the effective use of financial services. While the country has achieved significant progress in bank account penetration, the focus must now shift toward improving service quality, enhancing resilience, and dismantling systemic barriers that prevent marginalized groups from fully leveraging financial tools. This analysis explores the current state of financial inclusion in India, highlighting the gaps in service delivery and the need for policy reforms to drive inclusive growth. The 2024 World Bank Findex report reveals that 89% of Indian adults hold bank accounts, surpassing the 75% average for low- and middle-income countries and approaching levels seen in high-income economies. Average account balances have grown from $12 in 2015 to $50 in 2024, reflecting a 17% compound annual growth rate. This expansion has been driven by digital public infrastructure (DPI), particularly the Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile (JAM) framework and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). UPI has revolutionized retail payments, reaching 260 million users and laying the groundwork for broader financial services. However, the shift from access to meaningful financial engagement remains incomplete. In 2023, 14% of adults—16% of account holders—remained inactive, more than double the global average. This suggests that for many, bank accounts function primarily as passive repositories for funds rather than active tools for managing finances. The design of the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) system exacerbates this issue.#india #world_bank #direct_benefit_transfer #unified_payments_interface #jan_dhan_aadhaar_mobile
Pakistan Labor Crisis: Iran War Halts Gulf Exports, Threatens Jobs and Economy The ongoing Iran war has triggered a severe labor crisis in Pakistan, disrupting labor exports to Gulf nations and endangering the livelihoods of millions of workers. The situation has escalated as demand for Pakistani labor in the Middle East has plummeted, raising concerns about the country’s economic stability. Pakistan, which relies heavily on remittances from overseas workers, now faces a potential decline in foreign currency inflows, exacerbating its already fragile economic landscape. The crisis has been compounded by a surge in energy prices, with the government hiking fuel costs to unprecedented levels. This has further strained the economy, pushing inflation to record highs and increasing poverty rates. According to recent data, over 43.5% of Pakistan’s population now lives in poverty, a stark indicator of the nation’s deteriorating economic conditions. The labor export sector, which has long been a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy, is now under severe pressure. Previously, thousands of workers were sent annually to Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, where they contributed significantly to the country’s foreign exchange reserves. However, the war in Iran has disrupted regional markets, leading to a sharp decline in job opportunities for Pakistani workers. Experts estimate that the number of workers sent to these countries could drop by half, with the potential loss of up to 80,000 jobs annually. This decline has had immediate consequences for Pakistan’s economy. The country’s reliance on remittances has been a critical factor in maintaining its balance of payments, but the reduction in labor exports threatens to destabilize this system.#pakistan #iran_war #gulf_nations #world_bank #saeed_javed_hasan
The Indian government's decision to gradually increase the supply of goods to 70%—after initially restricting it to 20%—reflects a strategic, phased approach to balancing economic growth with regulatory oversight. Here's a structured analysis of the policy and its implications: --- Key Policy Shifts and Rationale Initial Restriction (20% Supply): Purpose: To ease the "Ease of Doing Business" (EoDB) environment by reducing bureaucratic hurdles and encouraging startups. Context: India aimed to improve its ranking in the World Bank’s EoDB index, which had lagged behind countries like Singapore and the U.S. Impact: Short-term measures to simplify compliance, reduce costs, and attract foreign investment. Gradual Liberalization: Steps: 20% → 50% → 70% (current level). Rationale: A cautious, incremental approach to monitor market responses, ensure regulatory compliance, and avoid sudden shocks to the economy. Focus: Balancing business flexibility with safeguards against market saturation or regulatory arbitrage. --- Economic Implications Boosting Business Activity: Startups and SMEs: Increased supply access likely reduces operational costs and encourages innovation, aligning with India’s "Startup India" initiative. Foreign Investment: Easier compliance and reduced red tape may attract FDI, particularly in sectors like manufacturing, tech, and renewable energy. Market Dynamics: Competition: Higher supply could intensify competition, driving efficiency and quality improvements. Risk of Oversupply: If not managed, it might lead to price wars or overcapacity in certain sectors (e.g., textiles, pharmaceuticals). Regulatory Compliance: Monitoring: The phased approach allows regulators to track adherence to labor laws, environmental standards, and tax compliance.#india #world_bank #make_in_india #ease_of_doing_business #startup_india
Poor in an oil-rich country: Republic of Congo’s youth hope for change In the bustling markets of Pointe-Noire, the economic heart of the Republic of Congo, the early morning hours are filled with the sounds of commerce. Amid the crowded stalls and street vendors, Romain Tchicaya sells medicines without a license, navigating a struggling economy where basic goods grow increasingly unaffordable. His story mirrors that of many young Congolese, who face a stark contrast between the country’s oil wealth and their daily realities. Tchicaya, 37, holds a degree in management but found himself without stable employment after university. “We are told the country is rich in oil, but I don’t see that wealth in my daily life,” he said. The city of Pointe-Noire, once known as “Ponton la Belle,” now struggles with crumbling infrastructure, flooded streets, and a lack of basic services. For Tchicaya, the gap between rhetoric and reality is glaring. Similar challenges face Brice Makaya, a 40-year-old computer science graduate who has never secured a stable job. Without income, he lives in a church, praying for a future that remains uncertain. “I’m still underhoused at my age and have no prospects,” he said. His situation reflects a broader crisis: despite being the third-largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, nearly half of Congo’s population lives below the poverty line. The upcoming presidential election on March 15 has placed economic concerns at the forefront for young voters. President Denis Sassou Nguesso, 82, seeks another term, but his campaign has faced criticism for failing to address youth unemployment. During a speech, Nguesso acknowledged the civil service’s limited capacity to absorb job seekers and urged self-employment. Yet for many, this message falls short.#world_bank #republic_of_congo #denis_sassou_nguesso #romain_tchicaya #brice_makaya
Haryana CM Nayab Singh Saini presents ₹2.23-lakh cr Budget for 2026-27 Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini unveiled the state’s budget for the financial year 2026-27 on Monday, March 2, 2026, with an outlay of ₹2.23 lakh crore. This represents a 10.28% increase from the revised allocation of ₹2.028 lakh crore for the current fiscal year. The budget was presented in the state assembly in Chandigarh, with Saini emphasizing the incorporation of 5,000 suggestions received from various stakeholders through an AI-based portal. The Chief Minister highlighted that his government has fulfilled 60 out of the 217 promises outlined in his party’s poll manifesto. A significant portion of the budget, ₹28,205 crore, is allocated for capital expenditure, accounting for 12.6% of the total outlay. Saini also announced the approval of ₹2,716 crore in financial assistance from the World Bank for the “Haryana Clean Air Project,” aimed at improving air quality in the state. Among the new initiatives, the budget proposes the establishment of a “Haryana Agri Discom,” a third power distribution company designed to provide electricity to all 5,084 agricultural feeders and 7.12 lakh rural agricultural consumers. This initiative aims to ensure uninterrupted power supply to farms. Additionally, the budget includes a provision of ₹100 crore for the “Haryana Green Climate Resilience Fund,” which will focus on investments in zero-emission vehicles, renewable energy, energy efficiency, water conservation, urban greening, climate-resilient agriculture, and nature-based solutions. The budget also addresses the state’s education sector, with a note indicating a downward trend in education outlay as debt and welfare expenditures rise.#haryana_clean_air_project #world_bank #haryana_agri_discom #haryana_cm #nayab_singh_saini
