Seth Moulton Closing Gap on Progressive Democrat Ed Markey in Massachusetts Senate Primary A new Emerson College poll reveals a tightening race in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, with Rep. Seth Moulton narrowing the gap against Sen. Ed Markey. The poll, conducted between May 3 and 4, shows Markey leading Moulton 37% to 32%, a significant shift from a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll last month, which had Markey ahead by 17 points (47% to 30%). The results highlight the growing challenge Moulton poses to the veteran senator, who has held his seat since 2013. Markey, 79, is a progressive figure backed by prominent Democrats such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ayanna Pressley. His campaign has drawn support from established party factions, while Moulton, a 47-year-old congressman, has positioned himself as a more centrist alternative. The race has drawn national attention as one of the most competitive Democratic primaries, with Moulton’s campaign emphasizing his appeal to moderate voters and his potential to reshape the Senate’s ideological balance. The Emerson College poll, which included 451 likely Democratic primary voters, also noted a 4.5% margin of error. It revealed that 29% of voters remain undecided, with only 2% supporting other candidates. Among registered Democrats, Markey leads by 13 points (37% to 29%), while Moulton holds a narrow edge among unenrolled voters (38% to 32%). The poll further highlighted demographic trends, with Markey maintaining a 7% advantage among voters under 50 (33% to 26%) and a split among older voters (40% for Markey, 38% for Moulton). Women, who have historically leaned toward Markey, showed a higher rate of indecision, with 33% undecided compared to 23% of men.#emerson_college #elizabeth_warren #ed_markey #seth_moulton #ayanna_pressley
Massachusetts 2026 Primary Poll: Sen. Markey Maintains Narrow Lead Over Rep. Moulton A new Emerson College Polling survey released in May 2026 reveals Democratic Senator Ed Markey entering his re-election campaign with a five-point lead over Democratic challenger Rep. Seth Moulton. The poll, conducted among Massachusetts voters, shows Markey at 37% support compared to Moulton’s 32%, with 29% of respondents undecided. Among registered Democrats, Markey holds a 13-point advantage, while Moulton edges unenrolled voters by 6 points. The survey highlights key demographic trends. Women favor Markey by 8 points (37% to 29%), while men are nearly evenly split, with 38% supporting Moulton and 37% backing Markey. Voters under 50 lean toward Markey by seven points (33% to 26%), whereas older voters (over 50) are closely divided, with 40% supporting Markey and 38% favoring Moulton. Notably, groups more favorable to Markey, such as women and young voters, also show higher undecided rates. Women are 10 points more undecided than men (33% to 23%), and 39% of voters under 50 are undecided compared to 21% of those over 50. Public opinion of the candidates reflects broader trends. Markey holds a 37% favorable rating statewide, with 35% unfavorable and 23% neutral. Among Democratic primary voters, 60% view him favorably, while 12% hold unfavorable opinions. Moulton’s favorable rating is 31%, with 26% unfavorable and 30% neutral. Among primary voters, 49% favor Moulton, and 11% oppose him. Governor Maura Healey’s approval rating stands at 45% favorable, with 35% unfavorable and 17% neutral. Senator Elizabeth Warren maintains a 48% favorable rating statewide, 35% unfavorable, and 14% neutral. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu has a 45% favorable rating, 34% unfavorable, and 16% neutral.#emerson_college_polling #massachusetts #emerson_college #ed_markey #seth_moulton
San Jose Mayor Behind in Polls but Ahead on Prediction Markets San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan trails in traditional opinion polls but holds a stronger position in online prediction markets, where his odds of winning the California governor’s race have surpassed those of prominent Democratic candidates like Katie Porter and Tom Steyer. While recent surveys by Emerson College, UC Berkeley, and the Public Policy Institute of California have placed Mahan below 5% in favorability, betting platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket suggest a different narrative. On March 13, 2026, Mahan’s odds on a $4 million Kalshi pool reached 13%, ranking him higher than Steyer at 10%, former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 8%, and Porter at 3%. This contrasts with Emerson College’s poll, which gave Mahan a 3.2% favorability rating, while Steyer scored 11%, Hilton 13%, and Porter 8.4%. A separate $1.5 million Polymarket pool also showed Mahan at 8% on March 13, with bettors placing him above Porter at 5% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 4%. However, traditional polling places the Republican candidate, who is running as a conservative, at 11% favorability, according to the same Emerson College survey. The discrepancy highlights the divergent methods used to gauge political viability. Traditional polls rely on scientific sampling, with margins of error typically around 3%, while prediction markets depend on trader behavior and financial incentives. Political sociologist Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, explained that prediction markets reflect traders’ beliefs about a candidate’s likelihood of winning, not necessarily their popularity. “Online betting is just another type of horse race,” she said.#kalshi #polymarket #san_jose_mayor #matt_mahan #emerson_college
