San Jose Mayor Behind in Polls but Ahead on Prediction Markets San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan trails in traditional opinion polls but holds a stronger position in online prediction markets, where his odds of winning the California governor’s race have surpassed those of prominent Democratic candidates like Katie Porter and Tom Steyer. While recent surveys by Emerson College, UC Berkeley, and the Public Policy Institute of California have placed Mahan below 5% in favorability, betting platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket suggest a different narrative. On March 13, 2026, Mahan’s odds on a $4 million Kalshi pool reached 13%, ranking him higher than Steyer at 10%, former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 8%, and Porter at 3%. This contrasts with Emerson College’s poll, which gave Mahan a 3.2% favorability rating, while Steyer scored 11%, Hilton 13%, and Porter 8.4%. A separate $1.5 million Polymarket pool also showed Mahan at 8% on March 13, with bettors placing him above Porter at 5% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 4%. However, traditional polling places the Republican candidate, who is running as a conservative, at 11% favorability, according to the same Emerson College survey. The discrepancy highlights the divergent methods used to gauge political viability. Traditional polls rely on scientific sampling, with margins of error typically around 3%, while prediction markets depend on trader behavior and financial incentives. Political sociologist Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, explained that prediction markets reflect traders’ beliefs about a candidate’s likelihood of winning, not necessarily their popularity. “Online betting is just another type of horse race,” she said.#kalshi #polymarket #san_jose_mayor #matt_mahan #emerson_college
