#kalshi

Traders' Hopes for U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Dim Despite Ceasefire Report Prediction markets indicate limited optimism for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal this year, with traders citing a recent Axios report that suggests the two nations may have agreed to a potential ceasefire. However, the agreement remains conditional on further negotiations to address nuclear demands. As of Thursday afternoon, Kalshi traders estimated a 55% chance of a nuclear deal by November, 49% for a deal before October, and 55% for one by December. The Axios report, based on statements from two U.S. officials and a regional source, noted that President Trump has not yet approved a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) following the first three months of the conflict. While the report highlights an agreement to initiate discussions, it emphasizes that nuclear demands still require "intensive negotiations." Officials confirmed that Iran will not pursue a nuclear weapon as part of the agreement. The MOU also outlines provisions for the disposal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and protocols for managing its enrichment activities. A U.S. official told Axios, "This is an agreement to get everybody to the table. We will work out the details in the negotiations," underscoring the prioritization of nuclear talks despite ongoing tensions. If Iran fails to meet nuclear demands during negotiations, U.S. officials indicated that economic or military options remain on the table. These measures include unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the removal of all mines within 30 days, and the elimination of tolls or harassment for commercial vessels. The U.S. naval blockade would be lifted proportionally as commercial shipping resumes, and the withdrawal of U.S. forces is contingent on final agreement.#us #iran #strait_of_hormuz #kalshi #axios

Kalshi U.S. Open Odds: Everything You Need to Know to Bet on Golf Using Prediction Markets With less than a month remaining until the U.S. Open, prediction markets on Kalshi have begun to reflect the current state of the golfing landscape. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler leads the field with a 15% chance of securing his first U.S. Open title and fifth major championship, which would complete his career grand slam. This figure has slightly decreased from his initial 18% odds posted on May 18, though he remains the sole player listed with a probability exceeding 10%. A $10 bet on Scheffler would yield $8.41 in profit if he wins. Scheffler’s recent form includes a second-place finish at the Masters and a T14 result at the PGA Championship. He also has two other runner-up finishes and two third-place results this season, alongside a victory at the American Express in January. His performance at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where he placed third, further underscores his consistency. Despite his strong track record, the U.S. Open presents a unique challenge, as the course at Shinnecock Hills is renowned for its difficulty. Only three players have ever finished under par in five events at the venue, highlighting the competition’s intensity. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are the only other golfers with odds above 5% for victory. McIlroy, a former U.S. Open champion, has shown strong form in majors this season, including a win at the Masters and a T7 finish at the PGA Championship. Rahm, who has dominated on the LIV circuit, finished T2 at the PGA Championship but failed to mount a decisive Sunday charge. Both players have a history of strong performances at the U.S. Open, with Rahm previously winning at Torey Pines and finishing in the top 10 three other times. A $10 bet on McIlroy would result in a $8.#rory_mcilroy #scottie_scheffler #kalshi #us_open #shinnecock_hills

Masters of the Universe Gets a Surprising Rotten Tomatoes Score Prediction The upcoming film Masters of the Universe is projected to secure a 74.7% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes, according to a prediction market on Kalshi. This score would place the movie just 0.3% short of the 75% threshold required for the site’s “Certified Fresh” designation. The prediction, which has drawn significant attention, reflects a dramatic shift from earlier forecasts that had placed the film’s score in the mid-60s range. The film, which has endured nearly two decades of production delays, has garnered unexpectedly positive reactions from both fans and critics. Its campy yet entertaining adaptation of the He-Man cartoons has been praised for its nostalgic appeal and commitment to the source material. The high anticipated score could significantly impact the movie’s box office performance, particularly after earlier forecasts suggested a challenging opening. The prediction market, which began on May 8, initially projected a mid-60s score for the film. However, the score fluctuated over the following weeks, peaking at 81% on May 18 before settling into the mid-70s range. As of May 21, the market estimated a 74.7% rating, with over $110,000 in bets placed on the outcome. While these predictions are not guaranteed, they offer insight into the film’s potential reception. The final Rotten Tomatoes score will be revealed on June 2 at 6 AM PT (9 AM ET) when the review embargo lifts. A strong score would mark a significant improvement over previous adaptations of the franchise. The 1987 live-action film, starring Dolph Lundgren as He-Man and Frank Langella as Skeletor, received a dismal 21% critics rating.#kalshi #masters_of_the_universe #nicholas_galitzine #he_man #dolph_lundgren

White House Reportedly Warns Staff Against Insider Trading The White House reportedly issued a staff-wide warning against engaging in insider trading, following concerns raised by lawmakers about potential misuse of confidential information. The directive, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, was sent by the White House Management Office on March 24, a day after President Donald Trump paused military strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure. The email emphasized the ethical and legal obligations of federal employees to avoid using nonpublic information for financial gain. The warning comes amid scrutiny over trading activity linked to Trump’s decisions regarding the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. On March 23, Trump posted on Truth Social, announcing a pause in military strikes against Iran, which was followed by a surge in trading on futures markets. Bloomberg reported that contracts covering at least six million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude were sold within two minutes starting at 6:49 a.m. in New York, far exceeding the average of 700,000 barrels sold during the same period in prior weeks. The rapid trading volume raised questions about whether insiders had access to Trump’s planned announcement. The email also addressed betting on prediction markets, where users trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen increased activity, particularly around high-profile events such as the 2024 presidential election and Trump’s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January. However, lawmakers have expressed concerns about the potential for insider trading on these platforms. On March 23, Senators Adam Schiff (D, Calif.#donald_trump #white_house #kalshi #polymarket #wall_street_journal

Survivor Season 50: Latest Odds and Elimination Predictions The latest episode of Survivor Season 50 has sparked intense speculation as prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to track eliminations with remarkable accuracy. Following the "Blood Moon" three-person elimination twist in the previous episode, the odds for tonight’s vote-off have shifted dramatically, with Dee Valladares emerging as the top contender to be voted out. Kalshi’s Survivor 50 Episode 7 market now gives Valladares a 91% chance of leaving the game, a significant jump from her earlier odds of around 10%. This dramatic shift contrasts with Christian Hubicki, whose chances plummeted from over 90% to just 14% within hours. The accuracy of these markets has been a recurring theme throughout the season. For example, Kalshi’s Episode 6 market correctly predicted the elimination of Colby Donaldson, Genevieve Mushaluk, and Kamilla Karthigesu during the "Blood Moon" twist, even before the episode aired. Similarly, the Episode 5 market accurately identified Charlie Davis and Angelina Keeley as the two voted out, while the Episode 4 market correctly forecasted Mike White’s elimination. These predictions have consistently aligned with the actual outcomes, reinforcing the credibility of the markets. Tonight’s episode marks the seventh elimination of the season, with 14 contestants remaining. The vote-off has been a focal point of the season, as alliances and strategies have evolved. Valladares’ sudden rise in odds suggests a strategic move by traders or a shift in player dynamics. Meanwhile, Hubicki’s drop in chances may reflect a change in his standing within the tribe or a loss of support from fellow contestants. The volatility of the odds highlights the unpredictable nature of the game, where alliances can shift rapidly.#kalshi #polymarket #survivor_season_50 #deevalladares #christianhubicki

Fox News and Kalshi Forge Strategic Partnership for Prediction Market Integration Fox News, the leading television news channel in the United States, has entered into a significant partnership with Kalshi, the nation’s largest prediction market platform. This collaboration will see Kalshi’s real-time forecasting data integrated into Fox News, Fox Business Network, Fox One, and Fox Weather, marking a major shift in how news organizations leverage data-driven insights. The deal, which spans multiple platforms, aims to provide viewers with predictive analytics alongside traditional news coverage, offering a unique blend of editorial and data-driven content. Kalshi, a platform that allows users to wager on the outcomes of global events such as elections, sports outcomes, and economic indicators, has already established similar partnerships with CNN and CNBC. These collaborations have positioned Kalshi as a key player in the media landscape, with its forecasts and predictions increasingly influencing public perception and viewer behavior. The company’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, emphasized that the integration of Kalshi’s data into Fox’s networks is designed to complement existing news and polling efforts, providing audiences with a more comprehensive understanding of unfolding events. The partnership is framed as a service aimed at addressing the challenges of information overload in the digital age. Mansour stated, “More people are watching Kalshi’s forecasts than trading them, which says a lot: our data effectively complements news and polls.” This approach aligns with Kalshi’s broader mission to offer unbiased, accurate insights while navigating the contentious debate surrounding prediction markets.#fox_news #kalshi #tarek_mansour #paul_cheesbrough #fox_business_network

GTA 6 Bets Show Fans Doubt Its $70 Price Tag A growing number of fans are betting that the upcoming Grand Theft Auto VI will cost more than $70, with many anticipating a price increase to $79.99, similar to Nintendo’s Mario Kart World in 2025. This speculation has intensified as the game’s delayed release date approaches, with concerns about the industry standard for game pricing remaining a hot topic. While some developers have softened their earlier predictions of a $90 or $100 price tag, fears persist that Rockstar Games might push the cost closer to $80, raising questions about the value proposition for players. A bet on the Kalshi platform highlights the divide among fans, with 61% wagering that GTA 6’s PS5 price will exceed $70. The bet’s spread reveals a range of expectations: over 95% predict the base price will be above $60, while 29% anticipate it will surpass $80. A smaller group (6%) believes the game could cost more than $90, and an even smaller percentage (11%) speculate it might reach $100. The bet’s historical data shows a shift in predictions, with early 2025 forecasts leaning toward $80, but recent trends suggest a more moderate price point of around $73.40. Industry insights further fuel the debate. Strauss Zelnick, CEO of Take-Two Interactive, recently mentioned the challenges of incorporating interstitial advertising in games priced at $70 or $80. While this doesn’t confirm GTA 6’s price, many interpret his comments as a hint that the game might align with the $70–$80 range for triple-A titles. Rockstar, however, could justify a $80 price tag given the game’s eight-year development cycle and rising production costs driven by inflation.#kalshi #rockstar_games #take_two_interactive #strauss_zelnick #gta_6

New Guardrails to Prevent Insider Trading and Manipulation in Politics and Sports Kalshi has introduced new measures to combat insider trading and market manipulation in political and sports prediction markets. The company is enhancing its technological safeguards and policies to align with federal regulatory guidance and proposed legislation. These updates aim to proactively block individuals in positions of influence from engaging in unethical trading practices. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently released new federal guidelines for prediction markets, emphasizing the prevention of insider trading and market manipulation. Concurrently, members of Congress have proposed legislation addressing similar concerns. Kalshi’s initiatives are designed to preemptively address these issues by leveraging advanced screening tools and collaboration with industry partners. A key component of the update is preemptive screening for political candidates. Kalshi has developed systems to block individuals from trading in markets tied to their own campaigns. This follows an enforcement action against a candidate who violated the exchange’s rules by trading on his election. The new measures aim to automatically prevent such trades before they occur. In sports, Kalshi is implementing a policy to block individuals involved in collegiate and professional leagues from trading in associated markets. Athletes, personnel, and referees will be preemptively restricted, using screening lists developed in partnership with IC360. This approach replaces past methods that required post-trade investigations. To further bolster integrity, Kalshi has integrated a whistleblower feature directly into its market platform.#kalshi #cftc #us_commodity_futures_trading_commission #ic360 #political_candidates

Villanova Wildcats Chosen as March Madness Underdog Despite Early Tournament Challenges Villanova is being positioned as a strong underdog in the NCAA tournament despite facing Utah State in a matchup that has them slightly favored at Kalshi. The Wildcats are being considered an 8 seed rather than a 9 seed, following the success of two 9 seeds—St. Louis and TCU—who advanced in the opening round. Analysts argue that while 9 seeds have shown promise, they are unlikely to dominate every game, making Villanova’s inclusion as an 8 seed a logical choice based on historical trends. Villanova’s non-conference record of 9-2 has drawn attention, particularly the losses to ranked teams BYU and Michigan, both of which were in the top 10 at the time. In contrast, Utah State’s 28-6 season included victories over VCU and Davidson on neutral courts, though they also suffered losses to South Florida, Grand Canyon, UNLV, Nevada, and San Diego State. Despite their strong overall record and Mountain West championship, the Wildcats are seen as a better matchup against Utah State, with confidence in their ability to rebound from a tough loss to Georgetown in the Big East tournament. The Wildcats’ losses this season have largely come against high-caliber opponents, including four combined games against UConn and St. John’s. While the absence of Matt Hodge is a setback, Villanova’s guard play and experience in tight, neutral-floor games are viewed as key assets. The team’s ability to perform under pressure in the second half is highlighted as a critical factor in their potential success against Utah State.#big_east #kalshi #utah_state #villanova_wildcats #mountain_west

San Jose Mayor Behind in Polls but Ahead on Prediction Markets San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan trails in traditional opinion polls but holds a stronger position in online prediction markets, where his odds of winning the California governor’s race have surpassed those of prominent Democratic candidates like Katie Porter and Tom Steyer. While recent surveys by Emerson College, UC Berkeley, and the Public Policy Institute of California have placed Mahan below 5% in favorability, betting platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket suggest a different narrative. On March 13, 2026, Mahan’s odds on a $4 million Kalshi pool reached 13%, ranking him higher than Steyer at 10%, former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 8%, and Porter at 3%. This contrasts with Emerson College’s poll, which gave Mahan a 3.2% favorability rating, while Steyer scored 11%, Hilton 13%, and Porter 8.4%. A separate $1.5 million Polymarket pool also showed Mahan at 8% on March 13, with bettors placing him above Porter at 5% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 4%. However, traditional polling places the Republican candidate, who is running as a conservative, at 11% favorability, according to the same Emerson College survey. The discrepancy highlights the divergent methods used to gauge political viability. Traditional polls rely on scientific sampling, with margins of error typically around 3%, while prediction markets depend on trader behavior and financial incentives. Political sociologist Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, explained that prediction markets reflect traders’ beliefs about a candidate’s likelihood of winning, not necessarily their popularity. “Online betting is just another type of horse race,” she said.#kalshi #polymarket #san_jose_mayor #matt_mahan #emerson_college

Chicago Cardinal Condemns 'Gamification' of War, Warns Against Desensitization Chicago — March 8, 2026 Cardinal Blase J. Cupich of Chicago criticized the growing trend of treating war as a form of entertainment, urging Americans to resist becoming desensitized to its "true costs" and to safeguard their humanity. In a statement, the cardinal condemned what he called the "gamification" of war, which he argued has blurred the line between the battlefield and civilian life. Cupich highlighted how modern technology has reduced the distance between war zones and home, making violence a spectacle rather than a reality. He cited prediction markets, where individuals bet on the outcomes of conflicts, as an example of this trend. The cardinal referenced a recent settlement involving Kalshi, a platform that allegedly failed to pay $54 million to users who wagered on former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stepping down by March 1. Cupich argued that people deriving entertainment from real-world crises reflects a "moral crisis." The cardinal warned that the public's fascination with war as a "spectator sport" or "strategy game" risks eroding humanity. He emphasized that excitement over military power and destruction leads to a loss of moral clarity, urging Americans to preserve their capacity for empathy and compassion. Cupich’s remarks align with broader concerns about the ethical implications of media coverage and technological advancements in warfare. His call to action underscores the tension between modern engagement with conflict and the need to uphold ethical and spiritual values. The statement was part of a feature series on the "War in Iran," reflecting ongoing discussions about the role of religion and morality in global conflicts.#prediction_markets #ayatollah_ali_khamenei #cardinal_blase_j_cupich #kalshi #war_in_iran

Kalshi Offers $10 Bonus for New Users with Promo Code NYPMAX Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is offering new users a $10 bonus when they sign up using the promo code NYPMAX. The promotion allows users to trade $10 and receive an additional $10 on various events, including NCAA conference tournament markets. The NCAA Tournament is still weeks away, but fans are already anticipating the intense competition as conferences vie for automatic bids to the tournament. To claim the bonus, new users must enter the promo code NYPMAX during registration, verify their account information, and complete at least $10 in trades. The offer is available to users aged 18 or older with a legal U.S. residential address in states such as Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, and others listed in the terms. The promotion excludes Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, and other specified states. The NCAA conference tournament is a critical time for college basketball, with teams fighting for a chance to advance to the tournament. Traders on Kalshi have already begun analyzing the SEC tournament, with Florida as the favorite to win, according to the platform. Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia are also strong contenders. Florida’s recent 10-game winning streak adds to its momentum for a potential championship run. Kalshi’s markets cover a wide range of outcomes, including which teams will secure tournament berths, the Final Four matchups, and the eventual champion. The platform is legal in multiple U.S. states and Washington D.C., providing users with access to real-time betting opportunities. The promo code NYPMAX highlights Kalshi’s efforts to attract new users while offering insights into college basketball’s most anticipated events.#alabama #florida #ncaa_tournament #kalshi #promo_code_nypmax

Free Kalshi NBA Picks and Predictions: Target Karl-Anthony Towns, Brook Lopez with Promo Code CBSSPORTS on Friday Friday’s NBA schedule includes seven games, with the newest Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS offering new users a $10 cash bonus after placing $10 in trades. The Knicks vs. Nuggets matchup stands out as a key game, featuring New York’s Karl-Anthony Towns, who averages 19.7 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. Kalshi prices Towns at $0.41 per share to score 20 or more points against the Nuggets at 9 p.m. ET. Towns has reached double figures in six of his last seven games against Denver and is projected to score 20.1 points according to SportsLine’s computer model. The model also supports Rockets center Alperen Sengun to score 20+ points against the Trail Blazers and Clippers veteran Brook Lopez to tally 10+ points against the Spurs. Sengun, averaging 20.4 points, has scored over 20 in three straight games against Portland, including a 25-point performance in their first meeting this season. Lopez, 37, has reached double digits in seven of his last 10 games against the Spurs and is projected for 11.6 points on Friday. To claim the $10 bonus, new users must trade at least $10 in event contracts, sign up for a Kalshi account, and make a minimum $1 deposit. The promo code CBSSPORTS is highlighted as the method to access the offer. SportsLine’s model, which simulates NBA games 10,000 times, has returned over $10,000 in profit for users following its picks over eight-plus seasons. The model is currently on a 41-18 streak on top-rated NBA predictions. Additional player props include Towns’ 20+ points at $0.41, Sengun’s 20+ points at $0.49, and Lopez’s 10+ points at $0.52. The article emphasizes the value of backing these players at their current prices, with the promo code serving as the gateway for new users to access the bonus.#cbsports #nba #karlanthony_towns #kalshi #brook_lopez